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Secretive agency uses AI, human 'forecasters' to predict the future

Paul Ratner
Big Think
Sun, 17 May 2020 00:00 UTC
IARPA
A U.S. government intelligence agency develops cutting-edge tech to predict future events.

As far as secretive government projects go, the objectives of IARPA may be the riskiest and most far-reaching. With its mission to foster "high-risk, high-payoff" programs, this research arm of the U.S. intelligence community literally tries to predict the future. Staffed by spies and Ph.D.s, this organization aims to provide decision makers with real, accurate predictions of geopolitical events, using artificial intelligence and human "forecasters."

IARPA, which stands for Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, was founded in 2006 as part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Some of the projects that it has funded focused on advancements in quantum computing, cryogenic computing, face recognition, universal language translators, and other initiatives that would fit well in a Hollywood action movie plot. But perhaps its main goal is to produce "anticipatory intelligence." It's a spy agency, after all.

Comment: Intelligence agencies have been working on predictive technology, both human and AI-related, for many years:

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HAL9000

Microsoft heralds 'key milestone' for quantum computing

Joel Khalili
TechRadar
Tue, 02 Feb 2021 18:21 UTC
quantum computer
© Graham Carlow/IBM
Microsoft has revealed that its cloud-based quantum computing platform, Azure Quantum, is now available in public preview.

The company has described the move as a "key milestone", allowing developers and researchers to harness opportunities afforded by access to quantum resources, but via a familiar toolset.

According to a Microsoft blog post, Azure Quantum gives users access to services from a range of quantum industry partners, including Honeywell, IonQ, Quantum Circuits and more.

The platform operates on a pay-as-you-go model and can be scaled up or down in line with usage needs. As per the pricing page, Azure Quantum can be sampled for as little as £7.45/compute hour (roughly $10.30/hour), although more complex workloads are considerably more expensive.
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Info

First steps toward a quantum brain


Radbound University
Mon, 01 Feb 2021 17:38 UTC
Quantum Brain
© Radbound University
An intelligent material that learns by physically changing itself, similar to how the human brain works, could be the foundation of a completely new generation of computers. Radboud physicists working toward this so-called "quantum brain" have made an important step. They have demonstrated that they can pattern and interconnect a network of single atoms, and mimic the autonomous behaviour of neurons and synapses in a brain. They report their discovery in Nature Nanotechnology on 1 February.

Considering the growing global demand for computing capacity, more and more data centres are necessary, all of which leave an ever-expanding energy footprint. 'It is clear that we have to find new strategies to store and process information in an energy efficient way', says project leader Alexander Khajetoorians, Professor of Scanning Probe Microscopy at Radboud University.

'This requires not only improvements to technology, but also fundamental research in game changing approaches. Our new idea of building a 'quantum brain' based on the quantum properties of materials could be the basis for a future solution for applications in artificial intelligence.'
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Beaker

New analysis claims to prove COVID is lab-made virus with 99.8% probability


The National Pulse
Sat, 30 Jan 2021 21:40 UTC
dna lab
A new COVID-19 study concludes there is a "99.8% probability SARS-CoV-2 came from a laboratory."

The 193-page paper published January 29th is titled "A Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived."

"The purpose of the analysis was to determine the origin of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Beginning with a likelihood of 98.2% that it was a zoonotic jump from nature with only a 1.2% probability it was a laboratory escape, twenty-six different, independent facts and evidence were examined systematically. The final conclusion is that it is a 99.8% probability SARS-CoV-2 came from a laboratory and only a 0.2% likelihood it came from nature," a summary notes.

The author, Dr. Steven Quay, has 360+ published medical studies and has been cited over 10,000 times, placing him in the top one percent of scientists worldwide.

What's more, he holds nearly 90 US patents and has invented seven FDA-approved pharmaceuticals.

"By taking only publicly available, scientific evidence about SARS-CoV-2 and using highly conservative estimates in my analysis, I nonetheless conclude that it is beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a laboratory. The additional evidence of what appears to be adenovirus vaccine genetic sequences in specimens from five patients from December 2019 and sequenced by the Wuhan Institute of Virology requires an explanation. You would see this kind of data in a vaccine challenge trial, for example. Hopefully the WHO team can get answers to these questions," he adds.

Comment: Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying appeared on Bill Maher's show last night to argue the same thing.



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Galaxy

More on astronomer Avi Loeb's approach to intelligent design inferences

Paul A. Nelson
Evolution News
Thu, 28 Jan 2021 18:32 UTC
Oumuamua, prvi međuzvjezdani asteroid, nešto što se do sada nije vidjelo
© European Southern Observatory
Oumuamua
Avi Loeb, Harvard astronomer and outspoken advocate for searching for evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence, has a new trade book out making his case: Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth.

In support of the book, Loeb has been conducting a press campaign, including appearing on podcasts such as Sean Carroll's Mindscape.

What interests me about Loeb's work is not the specifics of his case for the artificial origin of the 'Oumuamua object. (See "Avi Loeb: 'Nature Does Not Produce Such Things.'") I don't know enough observational astronomy and physics to have a decent opinion about that.

ID in Mainstream Science

Rather, I am VERY interested in the logical structure of Loeb's argument, as it currently represents the most salient example of risky intelligent design reasoning in mainstream science. "Risky" is the appropriate adjective here, because while design inferences are commonplace throughout science, where any human activity is concerned (e.g., remote sensing of industrial pollutants, archaeological discovery, cryptanalysis), they are exceedingly rare or non-existent when the intelligence in question is not human. (I am excluding animals, such as crows, chimps, or octopuses.) Loeb's inference is risky because he is pushing against conventional wisdom, extending intelligent causation as a hypothesis to non-human, extraterrestrial agents.

Comment:

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Mars

Mineral jarosite often found on Mars discovered deep in Antarctic ice

Bob Yirka
Phys.org
Fri, 29 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
jarosite
© Nature Communications (2021). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20705-z
The morphology of mineral grains in deep TALDICE investigated through SEM.
An international team of researchers has found evidence of the mineral jarosite in ice cores extracted from Antarctica. In their paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the researchers describe how the discovery came about and why they believe it could bolster theories regarding the presence of the same mineral on the surface of Mars.

Jarosite is very rarely found on Earth — it is generally seen in mining waste that has been exposed to air and rain. The researchers with this new effort were not looking for it in their ice cores — they were focused on minerals in deep ice cores that might help to better understand ice age cycles. But when they came across the yellow-brown mineral, their interest was piqued. X-ray absorption testing and electron microscopy showed it be jarosite.

Comment: One wonders whether Pierre Lescaudron's article Did Earth 'Steal' Martian Water? could go some way towards explaining the presence of jarosite as well as its possible connection to the ice age cycles.

See also:

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Better Earth

First evidence that water can be created on the lunar surface by Earth's magnetosphere

Emmanuel Masongsong, UCLA Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences
Phys.org
Thu, 28 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
magnetosphere Moon
© E. Masongsong, UCLA EPSS, NASA GSFC SVS.
Artist’s depiction of the Moon in the magnetosphere, with “Earth wind” made up of flowing oxygen ions (gray) and hydrogen ions (bright blue), which can react with the lunar surface to create water. The Moon spends >75% of its orbit in the solar wind (yellow), which is blocked by the magnetosphere the rest of the time.
Before the Apollo era, the moon was thought to be dry as a desert due to the extreme temperatures and harshness of the space environment. Many studies have since discovered lunar water: ice in shadowed polar craters, water bound in volcanic rocks, and unexpected rusty iron deposits in the lunar soil. Despite these findings, there is still no true confirmation of the extent or origin of lunar surface water.

The prevailing theory is that positively charged hydrogen ions propelled by the solar wind bombard the lunar surface and spontaneously react to make water (as hydroxyl (OH-) and molecular (H2O)). However, a new multinational study published in Astrophysical Journal Letters proposes that solar wind may not be the only source of water-forming ions. The researchers show that particles from Earth can seed the moon with water, as well, implying that other planets could also contribute water to their satellites.

Comment: See also:

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Comet 2

New Comet C/2021 A1 (Leonard)

Adriano Valvasori & Ernesto Guido
Remanzacco Blogspot
Sun, 31 Jan 2021 01:38 UTC
CBET 4907 & MPEC 2021-A99, issued on 2021, January 10, announce the discovery of a comet (magnitude ~19.5) by Gregory J. Leonard on CCD images taken on Jan. 3.54-3.56 UT with the Mount Lemmon Survey's 1.5-m reflector. The new comet has been designated C/2021 A1 (Leonard).

We performed follow-up measurements of this object while it was still on the PCCP webpage.

Stacking of 14 unfiltered exposure, 120 seconds each, obtained remotely on 2021, January 6.4 from H06 (iTelescope network, New Mexico) through a 0.43 m f/4.5 Reflector + CCD, shows that this object is a comet with a diffuse coma about 7" in diameter.

Our confirmation image (click on it for a bigger version; made with TYCHO software by D. Parrott):
Comet C/2021 A1 (Leonard)
© Remanzacco Blogspot
M.P.E.C. 2021-A99, assigns the following nearly parabolic orbital elements to comet C/2021 A1: T 2022 Jan. 3.3; e= 0.99; Peri. = 225.09; q = 0.6; Incl.= 132.68
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Hearts

Specific bacteria in the gut prompt mother mice to neglect their pups

Salk Institute
Phys.org
Fri, 29 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
Escherichia E. coli)
© fusebulb/Shutterstock.com
Escherichia coli (E. coli) bacteria, pictured here, is a common gut bacteria in both humans and animals. There are many different strains, some of which cause disease.
As scientists learn more about the microorganisms that colonize the body — collectively called the microbiota — one area of intense interest is the effect that these microbes can have on the brain. A new study led by Salk Institute scientists has identified a strain of E. coli bacteria that, when living in the guts of female mice, causes them to neglect their offspring.

The findings, published January 29, 2021, in the journal Science Advances, show a direct link between a particular microbe and maternal behavior. Although the research was done in mice, it adds to the growing body of science demonstrating that microbes in the gut are important for brain health and can affect development and behavior.

Comment: As reported in the article Honeybee microbes shape colony's social behaviour, similar findings were recently discovered in bees:
[...] both a bee's birth hive and the hive in which it grew up influences the insect's gut microbiome, which in turn influenced CHC composition.

Bees inoculated with a bacterium commonly found in the bee gut accepted other bees inoculated with the same bacterium, but rejected — by biting, stinging, or dragging — bees inoculated with a bacterium typically found on trees, regardless of how genetically related those bees were. "This is the first case where the microbiome is showed to play a role in the basic social biology of the insect, rather than health-related aspects,"
See also:

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Info

USGS: Largest gravity changes ever recorded - 2018 Kīlauea eruption

USGS
YouTube
Tue, 26 Jan 2021 13:37 UTC
Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption Talk by Mike Poland
© YouTube/USGS (screen capture)
The largest gravity changes ever recorded: Continuous gravity monitoring of the onset of Kīlauea's 2018 eruption Talk by Mike Poland-USGS Yellowstone Volcano Observatory Scientist-in-Charge and former USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory geophysicist.

Talk originally presented at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020. Eruptive activity at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaiʻi, in April-May 2018 occurred at sites that were well monitored by continuous gravity. Draining of the lava lake from the summit eruptive vent starting May 1, recorded by a gravimeter on the vent rim, was accompanied by a drop of ~1300 microgals over 9 days. At the rim of the Puʻu ʻŌʻō eruptive vent, 20 km [12 miles] down the East Rift Zone from the summit, a gravity decrease of ~200 microgals over 8 minutes, followed by an increase of ~350 microgals over the subsequent 9 minutes, accompanied the formation of an eruptive fissure on the flank of the cone on April 30. About 45 minutes later, a decrease of ~1500 microgals occurred over 2 hours as lava drained from the vent. These gravity changes are the largest ever recorded anywhere in the world.

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