Science & Technology

Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness

Norman Fenton, Martin Neil and Scott McLachlan
probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com
Wed, 15 Sep 2021 18:29 UTC

© REUTERS/DADO RUVIC/ILLUSTRATION
Vials with Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine labels are seen in this illustration picture taken March 19, 2021.

The full pdf version of the following article (which includes the Appendix) can be found here.

Why current studies (for or against vaccination) cannot be trusted and what we can do about it

The randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to establish the safety and effectiveness of Covid19 vaccines produced impressive results (Polack et al., 2020) but were inevitably limited in the way they assessed safety (Folegatti et al., 2020)^[1] and are effectively continuing (Ledford, Cyranoski, & Van Noorden, 2020; Singh et al., 2021). Ultimately, the safety and effectiveness of these vaccines will be determined by real world observational data over the coming months and years.

However, data from observational studies on vaccine effectiveness can easily be misinterpreted leading to incorrect conclusions. For example, we previously noted the Public Health England data shown in Figure 1 for Covid19 cases and deaths of vaccinated and unvaccinated people up to June 2021. Overall, the death rate was three times higher in the vaccinated group, leading many to conclude that vaccination increases the risk of death from Covid19. But this conclusion was wrong for this data because, in each of the different age categories (under 50 and 50+), the death rate was lower in the vaccinated group.

Figure 1 Data from Public Health England, June 2021

This is an example of Simpson's paradox (Pearl & Mackenzie, 2018). It arises here because most vaccinated people were in the 50+ category where most deaths occur. Specifically: a) a much higher proportion of those aged 50+ were vaccinated compared to those aged <50; and b) those aged 50+ are much more likely to die.

Ioannidis on the politicization of science

Edward Feser
edwardfeser.blogspot.com
Thu, 16 Sep 2021 18:14 UTC

Like other academics, I first became aware of John Ioannidis through his influential 2005 paper "Why Most Published Research Findings are False." That essay was widely praised as a salutary reminder from one scientist to his fellows of the need for their field to be self-critical. With the COVID-19 pandemic, Ioannidis would become far more widely known, this time for expressing skepticism about some of the scientific claims being made about the virus and the measures taken to deal with it. His warnings were in the same spirit as that of his earlier work, and presented in the same measured and reasonable manner - but this time they were not so warmly received. In a new essay at The Tablet, Ioannidis reflects on the damage that has been done to the norms of scientific research as politics has corrupted it during the pandemic.

The specific norms Ioannidis has in mind are, he says, "the Mertonian norms of communalism, universalism, disinterestedness, and organized skepticism." The reference is to an influential account of scientific method proposed by sociologist Robert Merton. Science should be communal in the sense that research ought to be communicated to and shared with all scientists. It should be universal in the sense of being judged by objective and impersonal criteria. It should be disinterested in the sense that research should be pursued for its own sake rather than for the purpose of promoting some political agenda or personal aggrandizement. It should be skeptical in the sense that scientists should make testable claims and welcome critical evaluations of their research.

Ioannidis notes several respects in which these norms have been violated over the last year and a half. I want to call attention to two of his points in particular: the deleterious role that social media have played, and the damage that the politicization of science has done to science itself and to public health.

Unique quantum physical effect demonstrated in Russian lab

Sputnik
Wed, 15 Sep 2021 20:01 UTC

An international team of scientists led by experts from the National Research Nuclear University MEPhI (NRNU MEPhI) were the first to demonstrate the recently predicted quantum electrodynamics effect. According to the authors, the results could improve the efficiency of solar cells, organic LEDs, and other photovoltaic equipment by several times.

An exciton is a quasiparticle, an auxiliary object of quantum theory, that describes the behaviour of a bound state of a pair of carriers of opposite charges - an electron and a hole. The concept of the exciton, as explained by MEPhI scientists, allows us to describe with high precision, for example, the electrical properties of organic semiconductors during interaction with light.

Potty-training cows - The MooLoo holds great pootential for reducing carbon emissions

Deborah Davies
Cosmos Magazine
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 18:09 UTC

Cows contribute massively to global emissions because of the greenhouse gases they produce. We're not talking hot air here. It's the No. 1s and No. 2s. Which is why potty training can be part of the solution.

On farms, cows graze freely, but that also means they poo and pee freely too. Unfortunately, this waste often contaminates the soil and waterways.

On the other hand, keeping cows in barns causes their urine and faeces to combine. This releases ammonia, which leaches into the soil where microbes convert it to nitrous oxide - the third most impactful greenhouse gas after methane and carbon dioxide.

To get around this, researchers from the Research Institute for Farm Animal Biology (FBN), Germany, and the University of Auckland, came up with a novel solution: a potty-training program for cows.

"It's usually assumed that cattle are not capable of controlling defecation or urination," says co-author Jan Langbein from FBN.

"[But] cattle, like many other animals or farm animals, are quite clever and they can learn a lot. So why shouldn't they be able to learn how to use a toilet?"

"People's reaction is, 'crazy scientists,' but actually, the building blocks are there," says Lindsay Matthews of the University of Auckland.

"Cows have bigger urinations when they wake up in the morning, which demonstrates they have the ability to withhold urination. There's nothing in their neurophysiology that radically differentiates them from animals, such as horses, monkeys and cats, that show latrine behaviour."

Magnet powerful enough to lift an aircraft carrier arrives in France as part of nuclear fusion project

Futurism
Wed, 15 Sep 2021 17:56 UTC

Scientists in France have finally received one of their latest and most impressive tools in the effort to create nuclear fusion: a really big honkin' magnet.

Researchers at the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) debuted the first part of the magnet on Thursday when they received it from its American manufacturer, according to The Associated Press. When fully assembled, the magnet stands at a staggering 60 feet tall and is 14 feet in diameter; it's also powerful enough to lift an aircraft carrier.

First-of-a-Kind

The magnet itself is actually known as a "central solenoid." It'll be used as a superconductor to attain the incredible amounts of heat and pressure necessary to produce nuclear fusion. The solenoid can generate a magnetic field roughly 280,000 times stronger than Earth's magnetic field, according to New Scientist.

Comment: China currently holds the record for creating the hottest and longest lasting plasma in their 'artificial sun'

China's Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) has set a new record in the latest experiment, where it achieved a plasma temperature of 216 million Fahrenheit (120 million C) for 101 seconds. Not just that, the scientists working on the "artificial sun", also achieved 288 million Fahrenheit (160 million C) for 20 seconds, according to state media reports.

Impact flash on Jupiter captured on video by amateur astronomers

Space Weather
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 20:44 UTC

SOMETHING JUST HIT JUPITER

Last night, German astronomer Harald Paleske was watching the shadow of Io create a solar eclipse in the atmosphere of Jupiter when something unexpected happened. "A bright flash of light surprised me," he says. "It could only be an impact." Follow the arrows to the fireball. [see image above]

Reviewing his video frames, Paleske quickly ruled out objects such as airplanes and satellites, which might be crossing Jupiter at the time of his observation. The fireball was fixed in Jupiter's atmosphere. It first appeared at 22:39:27 UT on Sept. 13th and remained visible for a full two seconds. The most likely explanation is a small asteroid or comet striking the giant planet; an asteroid in the 100m size range would do the trick.

Comment: Interestingly, a recent study revealed that Jupiter is actually flinging space rocks in the direction of Earth.

See also:

And check out SOTT radio's:

Could Earth's magnetic field be reversing due to remains of ancient planetary collision embedded in the deep mantle?

Chris Holt
Astronomy
Tue, 14 Sep 2021 18:37 UTC

It's been 780,000 years since this happened — and some scientists say that Earth's magnetic poles are long overdue for a switch.

Something odd is happening to Earth's magnetic field. Over the last 200 years, it's been slowly weakening and shifting its magnetic north pole (where a compass points, not to be confused with the geographic north pole) from the Canadian Arctic toward Siberia. In recent decades, however, that slow shift south has quickened — reaching speeds upwards of 30 miles per year (48 kilometers per year). Could we be on the brink of a geomagnetic reversal, in which the magnetic north and south poles swap places?

Earth's magnetic field is generated by the convection of molten iron in the planet's core, around 1,800 miles (2896 km) beneath our feet. This superheated liquid generates electric currents that in turn produce electromagnetic fields. While the processes that drive pole reversal are comparatively less understood, computer simulations of planetary dynamics show that the reversals arise spontaneously. This is supported by observation of the Sun's magnetic field, which reverses approximately every 11 years.

Our own magnetic field came into existence at least 4 billion years ago, and Earth's magnetic poles have reversed many times since then. Over the last 2.6 million years alone, the magnetic field switched ten times — and, because the most recent occurred a whopping 780,000 years ago, some scientists believe we are overdue for another. But reversals are not predictable and are certainly not periodic.

"Dog-bone" asteroid Kleopatra captured in best images yet by ESO

European Southern Observatory
Thu, 09 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Kleopatra

Using the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope (ESO's VLT), a team of astronomers have obtained the sharpest and most detailed images yet of the asteroid Kleopatra. The observations have allowed the team to constrain the 3D shape and mass of this peculiar asteroid, which resembles a dog bone, to a higher accuracy than ever before. Their research provides clues as to how this asteroid and the two moons that orbit it formed.

"Kleopatra is truly a unique body in our Solar System," says Franck Marchis, an astronomer at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, USA and at the Laboratoire d'Astrophysique de Marseille, France, who led a study on the asteroid — which has moons and an unusual shape — published today in Astronomy & Astrophysics. "Science makes a lot of progress thanks to the study of weird outliers. I think Kleopatra is one of those and understanding this complex, multiple asteroid system can help us learn more about our Solar System."

Comment: See also:

And check out SOTT radio's:

Spectacular valleys and cliffs hidden beneath the North Sea revealed in new imaging study

Stephanie Pappas
Live Science
Fri, 10 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

© British Antarctic Survey
Scientists discovered this esker (a sedimentary cast of a meltwater channel formed beneath an ice sheet), in a tunnel valley beneath the North Sea floor. The landscape is shown in an image based on high-resolution 3D seismic data.

Like a bowl of spaghetti noodles spilled across the floor of the North Sea, a vast array of hidden tunnel valleys wind and meander across what was once an ice-covered landscape.

These valleys are remnants of ancient rivers that once drained water from melting ice sheets.

Now, scientists have achieved the clearest view yet of these channels. They're buried hundreds of feet beneath the seafloor, and they are enormous, ranging from about 0.6 to 3.7 miles (1 to 6 kilometers) wide.

The new imaging reveals fine-grained details within these expansive features: small, delicate ridges of sediment, larger walls of sediment that can be miles long and craters called kettle holes left behind by melting chunks of ice.

Comment: See also:

Over 450 previously unknown objects discovered in our Solar System

Michelle Starr
Science Alert
Fri, 10 Sep 2021 21:09 UTC

The outer reaches of the Solar System constitute a strange and mysterious place. Out past the orbit of Neptune, where it's cold and dark, a swarm of icy objects called the Kuiper Belt orbits the Sun, thought to be more or less unchanged since the Solar System was born.

Because it's so dark and far away, and the objects so small, it's hard for astronomers to discern what exactly is out there. This makes the results of a recent search quite marvelous. Using data from the Dark Energy Survey, astronomers identified 815 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs), of which 461 are newly discovered.

This is a significant bump to the 3,000 or so known TNOs in the outer Solar System, information that could help us better model how the Solar System formed, and maybe even search for the elusive Planet Nine.

The new catalog has been submitted for publication, and is available on preprint server arXiv.

"This catalog has 817 confirmed objects (461 first discovered in this work)," the researchers wrote in their paper.

"This is the second largest TNO catalog from a single survey to date, as well as the largest catalog with multi-band photometry."

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Science & Technology

Paradoxes in the reporting of Covid19 vaccine effectiveness

Ioannidis on the politicization of science

Unique quantum physical effect demonstrated in Russian lab

Potty-training cows - The MooLoo holds great pootential for reducing carbon emissions

Magnet powerful enough to lift an aircraft carrier arrives in France as part of nuclear fusion project

Impact flash on Jupiter captured on video by amateur astronomers

Could Earth's magnetic field be reversing due to remains of ancient planetary collision embedded in the deep mantle?

"Dog-bone" asteroid Kleopatra captured in best images yet by ESO

Spectacular valleys and cliffs hidden beneath the North Sea revealed in new imaging study

Over 450 previously unknown objects discovered in our Solar System

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