Scientists use various models to evaluate risk, but researchers have long understood that ordinary people don't rely on mathematical probability to assess the dangers posed by some phenomenon - they use other kinds of rules.
For example, we're much more accepting of risks that we assume voluntarily. That's one reason why people who smoke a pack a day will go to a zoning board meeting to fight against a diesel bus yard.
People are also more accepting of risk when they have a sense of control. Driving a car is much more dangerous than riding in an airplane, but as an airplane passenger, you feel helpless. Another reason people worry more about airplane crashes than motor vehicle accidents is because the events are more noteworthy - a whole lot of people killed all at once, instead of one or two here and there, even though the latter adds up to a lot more people over time.
© Bruce Eagle
"Swine Flu"
"Swine Flu"
It was stated by the US Centre for Disease Control (CDC) that the first case of "Swine Flu" was diagnosed in Mexico on the 17th of April. In the last few weeks, several researchers have sent information to Andrew Johnson, an independent lay researcher who runs a free website called "Check the Evidence". Johnson explains "I was sent information that includes commentary provided by Alternative Health figures such as Dr Joseph Mercola, an osteopathic physician, and Dr Leonard Horowitz, a Harvard Graduate of Dental Medicine. Their commentaries vigorously challenge mainstream reports about the Swine Flu scares."
On his website, Dr Mercola states "this isn't the first time the public has been warned about swine flu. The last time was in 1976, right before I entered medical school and I remember it very clearly. It resulted in the massive swine flu vaccine campaign. Do you happen to recall the result of this massive campaign? Within a few months, claims totalling $1.3 billion had been filed by victims who had suffered paralysis from the vaccine. The vaccine was also blamed for 25 deaths."
Suspicions have also been raised about the actual nature of the virus itself , following comments by a WHO Official that the current strain contains both Avian and Swine Flu characteristics. Johnson states, "Some would say this was only possible if the virus had been genetically manipulated in a laboratory".
For eight years, Condoleezza Rice dealt with the Beltway punditry and the access-craving White House press corps. The reception she got, with a handful of exceptions, was fawning. Which leaves her totally unprepared for a return to an academy populated with the Daily Show generation: bright young minds with a very critical attitude towards the last eight years. In a meeting with Stanford students at a dormitory reception on April 27, the school's former provost got off to a shaky start and ended in a train wreck. She may in fact have her last words in the exchange quoted back to her some day in a law court.
Dr John Crippen is the pseudonym of an NHS doctor who writes a popular medical blog. This is his account of the view from the GP's surgery
Oh! God, now I know it is serious. The Health Protection Agency has sent me an algorithm to tell me how to deal with swine flu. It arrived today in an email with one of those red exclamation marks at the side. An algorithm, for those who don't know, is a "finite sequence of instructions, an explicit, step-by-step procedure for solving a problem". It is very complicated. I do not understand it. Fortunately the primary care trust has also sent me a red exclamation mark email with instructions I can understand: "The main message remains: always use a tissue to catch coughs and sneezes, throw away used tissues and regularly wash your hands."
Oh! God, now I know it is serious. The Health Protection Agency has sent me an algorithm to tell me how to deal with swine flu. It arrived today in an email with one of those red exclamation marks at the side. An algorithm, for those who don't know, is a "finite sequence of instructions, an explicit, step-by-step procedure for solving a problem". It is very complicated. I do not understand it. Fortunately the primary care trust has also sent me a red exclamation mark email with instructions I can understand: "The main message remains: always use a tissue to catch coughs and sneezes, throw away used tissues and regularly wash your hands."
© Unknown
Nice swine
Nice swine
Do you happen to recall the result of this massive campaign?
Within a few months, claims totaling $1.3 billion had been filed by victims who had suffered paralysis from the vaccine. The vaccine was also blamed for 25 deaths.
However, several hundred people developed crippling Guillain-Barré Syndrome after they were injected with the swine flu vaccine. Even healthy 20-year-olds ended up as paraplegics.
And the swine flu pandemic itself? It never materialized.
More People Died From the Swine Flu Vaccine than Swine Flu!
The torture trail starts and ends in the White House. That is perhaps the most inescapable conclusion to be drawn from the flurry of documents released in the last week - first the OLC memoranda, then a newly declassified report of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and finally an amazing document that Attorney General Eric Holder released yesterday, which has still gained little attention. The Holder note presents a summary of CIA interaction with the White House in connection with the approval of the torture techniques that John Yoo calls the "Bush Program." Holder's memo refers to the participants by their job titles only, but John Sifton runs it through a decoder and gives us the actual names. Here's a key passage:
© SOHO/MDI
Spotless sun
Spotless sun
But for those worried about a strangely long trend of missing sunspots, scientists have a message: Don't expect the sun to change its spots overnight.
Sunspots are dark areas on the sun's surface caused by intense magnetic activity. They indicate a natural sort of churning caused by the rotation of plasma inside the sun. And they are often associated with things like solar flares, mass ejections and other phenomenon indicating increased solar activity.
Since 2004, the sun has been in a prolonged period of low sunspot activity, which has led some to fear that the phenomenon could lead to global cooling, a new ice age, the death of the sun or even to the end of the world predicted by the Mayan calendar.
© Unknown
Ice, ice and yet more ice
Ice, ice and yet more ice
Zinchenko's vessel, the Spirit of Enderby, was commissioned in January last year to retrace the steps of the great Antarctic explorer Ernest Shackleton, marking the century of his Nimrod expedition of 1907-09.
Spirit of Enderby was blocked by a wall of pack ice at the entrance to the Ross Sea, about 400km short of Shackleton's base hut at Cape Royds. Zinchenko says it was the first time in 15 years that vessels were unable to penetrate the Ross Sea in January. The experience was consistent with his impression that pack ice is expanding, not contracting, as would be expected in a rapidly warming world. "I see just more and more ice, not less ice."
© Catlin Survey
Two of the Arctic ice sites show April 16 ice at recent record levels. The Japanese site IJIS has a seven year April record going back to 2003, and reports 2009 levels at the highest extent on record for the date: 13,649,219 km2.
© AMSRE
AMSRE Sea Ice Extent
AMSRE Sea Ice Extent
The Danish Meteorological Institute has a five year database, and also shows April 16 ice extent as the highest in their short record.
© Unknown
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Endless
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Endless
The results of ice-core drilling and sea ice monitoring indicate there is no large-scale melting of ice over most of Antarctica, although experts are concerned at ice losses on the continent's western coast.
Antarctica has 90 per cent of the Earth's ice and 80 per cent of its fresh water. Extensive melting of Antarctic ice sheets would be required to raise sea levels substantially, and ice is melting in parts of west Antarctica. The destabilisation of the Wilkins ice shelf generated international headlines this month.
However, the picture is very different in east Antarctica, which includes the territory claimed by Australia.
East Antarctica is four times the size of west Antarctica and parts of it are cooling. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research report prepared for last week's meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations in Washington noted the South Pole had shown "significant cooling in recent decades".
Australian Antarctic Division glaciology program head Ian Allison said sea ice losses in west Antarctica over the past 30 years had been more than offset by increases in the Ross Sea region, just one sector of east Antarctica.
Comment: This just in from SOTT's special expeditionary correspondent - back home cooling off after his sizzling adventures in Cyprus:
"I can confirm from where I'm perched here in west Antartica, that the ice just goes on and on..."
© File photo from Guinn's album
Mr Penn Guinn lifts off for another adventure last summer
Mr Penn Guinn lifts off for another adventure last summer
Comment: Another take on this potentially pandemic virus is the following: Globally pandemic flu virus, or not (it really is unknown at this stage?), it should be common sense to look after ourselves as best we can, and for those we love. This includes ridding ourselves of the toxins that we accumulate from our diets and living/working environments, and helping to boost our under-pressure immune systems.
Please listen to Sott's latest Podcast entitled 'Toxic World, Toxic Bodies' - Flu, or no global flu... this information is a must and should not be missed. Large Download (right click to save)
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