© CopyrightGerman Defense Minister Boris Pistorius German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announces a new delivery of 12 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled howitzers at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Sept. 6, 2024.
The analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy says Germany is barely managing to replace the weapons it is sending to help Ukraine's war effort โ stocks of air defense systems and howitzers have plummeted, for example โ and it's not spending enough to stand up to Russia.
"What Europe needs now is a permanent, substantial and immediate increase in Germany's regular defense spending to at least 2% of GDP," said Guntram Wolff, the report's lead author. "Let's be clear โ any 'business as usual' approach would be negligent and irresponsible in the face of Russian aggression."
Comment: It seems that most Germans don't agree, because 60% of Germans are against involvement in the Ukraine war.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought a "zeitenwende," or historical turning point, to defense policy in Berlin, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz announcing a new 100-billion-euro special fund to bolster Germany's armed forces.
But it was not until last year that Germany began to raise its regular defense spending in any significant way and reach NATO's target spending levels, according to the report. Researchers say it is too little, too late.
Years of downsizing and modest rearmament mean that the Bundeswehr, Germany's military, is on track to reestablish its 2004 capabilities in combat aircraft in 15 years, in tanks in 40 years and in artillery howitzers in 100 years.
Germany had 423 combat aircraft in 2004 compared with 226 in 2021; 2,398 battle tanks in 2004 compared with 339 in 2021; and 978 howitzers in 2004 compared to 121 in 2021, according to the Kiel Institute's military procurement tracker.
The German government has ordered a yearly average of 14 combat aircraft, 49.2 tanks and 8.8 howitzers since the start of the war in Ukraine, the tracker states.
Meanwhile, Russia's war machine has ramped up production to the point where it can produce as many weapons in six months as all of Germany's armed forces can currently field, according to the report.
Russia is capable of comfortably expending 10,000 rounds of ammunition per day on the battlefield without fear of draining its inventory, while Germany would use up a year's worth of its ammunition production within 70 days at the same rate of fire, researchers said.
Germany's stock of howitzers and other critical military systems has plummeted over the past two decades, according to a recently released Kiel Institute report.
The report criticizes German budget planning and says the defense industry cannot sufficiently expand production capacity because it is not clear how much money Berlin will be willing to spend on the military once its special defense fund is exhausted.
"Long-term planning and an efficient procurement system are essential to build industrial capacity," Wolff said. The Kiel Institute also sounded the alarm over Russia's increasing fighting power.
Moscow's capacity to produce long-range air defense systems has doubled, and its capacity to produce tanks has tripled. It has also increased its capacity to produce drones more than sixfold, according to the report.
Comment: And that's not even factoring in the invaluable battle experience its soldiers have accrued over the past 2 years of fighting the Kiev-junta, who, notably, were trained by NATO countries, and partly staffed by Western mercenaries and officials.
Russia's growing expertise and arsenal of supersonic and hypersonic missiles, which are incredibly destructive and difficult to intercept, pose a major risk to NATO, researchers said.
Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute, said Germany, Europe's largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, needs an annual defense budget of at least 100 billion euros per year to credibly deter Russia. Germany budgeted 52 billion euros in its regular defense budget this year.
Comment: It seems it won't be money well spent: 'Embarrassing': German Navy Frigate Hessen MISFIRES two missiles which mistakenly target US drone over Red Sea
"The 'Zeitenwende,' or epochal shift, in military spending promised by the German government in 2022 has so far proved to be empty rhetoric," he said. "Peace will come when the regime in Moscow understands that it cannot win wars of aggression in Europe militarily. For this, Germany and Europe need credible military capabilities."
It doesn't look like Germany is going to be doing much industrial work at all in the future, what with the cost of electricity and the scarcity of hydrocarbon.
Of interest; In 2022 the German military was budgeted 100 Billion Euro. [Link]
Now two years later in 2024 they are having trouble coming up with the 85 Billion NATO is demanding, even with financial contributions from the E.U. [Link]
From the 2024 Budget (2nd link);
"The announced individual contributions from the defense budget (EUR 51.8 billion), the Special Fund (EUR 19.2 billion), and shares from other budgets (about EUR 7 billion) correspond to a total of about EUR 78 billion.
NATOโs two percent target will, however, require about EUR 85 billion in defense spending in 2024. The gap will get even worse in the future.
According to current planning, Germanyโs total defense spending will drop massively after 2026 once the Special Fund has been used up and its regular defense budget remains constant."
NATO and it's players are sucking the life out of Germany. German steel mills and other infrastructure will be bought by 'investors from elsewhere' for 10 cents on the dollar, along with her farm land and other real estate. Once the looting has subsided, the war in Ukraine will stop, Russia will become a 'partner' again and the pipelines will open to power the now totally foreign-owned economy.