Russian MP believes Ukrainian counteroffensive will end in July - Zelensky says operation is not going well

RT
Tue, 20 Jun 2023 18:36 UTC

Kiev's forces will exhaust their offensive capabilities in July if the current Ukrainian casualty rate persists, the head of Russia's State Duma Defense Committee, Andrey Kartapolov, said on Tuesday.

Ukrainian troops have lost some 900 soldiers to deaths and injuries over the past 24 hours alone, the colonel general explained. According to Kartapolov, they have also lost nine tanks and dozens of armored vehicles over the same period. "If it continues at this pace, I believe we will finish repelling [this offensive] in three weeks and move on to dynamic actions ourselves," the MP predicted in an appearance on the 'Solovyov Live' show.

The lawmaker claimed that Ukraine had already lost around 20,000 soldiers out of the 40,000 to 50,000 it had reportedly trained for the offensive. While he did not name his sources, he claimed the much-awaited Ukrainian operation had largely failed.

Comment: This forecast of course depends on the accuracy of these numbers.

"Every tactic they have used has not worked as of now," he said. Kiev's troops did not advance further than the Russian forward defense area security zone and did not even reach the first defense line, the MP added.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, over 600 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed over the past 24 hours, as Kiev's troops continued their attacks on Russian positions. The Ukrainian forces also lost dozens of armored vehicles, as well as a dozen artillery pieces, including at least three US-made M777 howitzers, the ministry revealed in its daily briefing on Tuesday.

Kiev's large-scale offensive began on June 4. Ukrainian troops have suffered heavy losses in the attacks, which have been repelled by Russian forces, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

Last week, it said that 7,500 of Kiev's frontline troops had either been killed or wounded. Russian President Vladimir Putin also said last week that Kiev had lost up to 30% of the heavy equipment supplied to it by the West.

Comment: Zelensky admitted to the BBC that progress has been "slower than desired," but insisted that peace negotiations are still off the table:

"Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It's not," he told the BBC on Wednesday ... "Whatever some might want, including attempts to pressure us, with all due respect, we will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best," he added.

Ukraine's deputy defense minister also made excuses (and vague promises):

Writing on Telegram, Anna Malyar acknowledged that "it is quite difficult" for Ukrainian troops to advance, because Moscow is fully committed to stopping Kiev's long-anticipated campaign. Ukraine's troops "must prepare for the fact that it will be a tough duel," she warned.

The official went on to argue that "it is not necessary to measure the result of the work of the defense forces only by settlements [captured] and kilometers traveled." Malyar insisted that aside from territorial gains, there are many other metrics to assess the effectiveness of a military operation, but declined to give any examples.

She claimed that Ukraine's ongoing military push is pursuing several goals, and vowed that "biggest blow is yet to come."

NATO's Stoltenberg also commented on Russia's "well-prepared" defense:

"We know that Ukrainians face a difficult terrain, they face dug-in Russian resistance," Stoltenberg said during a joint media engagement with Germany's defense minister Boris Pistorius in the city of Flensburg.

Russian troops had been able to "establish static, well-prepared defense lines with minefields, with Dragon's teeth, with tank trenches," the NATO chief admitted. He also said that the military bloc would send additional demining equipment, including "heavy-armored demining" vehicles, to help its troops breach these extensive defenses. He did not name either the number or the exact type of hardware, which is supposedly to be delivered by Germany, the US and other NATO members.a

The head of Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergey Naryshkin, claims that Western intel agencies are worried that the counteroffensive could have unintended consequences:

The Russian spy chief claimed that "authoritative members of the US and European intelligence services and military departments don't rule out that the counteroffensive could lead to directly opposite results" of those expected by Ukraine.

Despite supporting the counteroffensive in their public statements, "behind the scenes, many Western military analysts express serious doubts about the success of the Ukrainian adventure," Naryshkin said during an interview with the outlet.

"Without going into details, I'll say that the tasks announced by the Kiev regime are assessed as unachievable" by foreign experts, he added.
...
The concern in Washington and Brussels is that the "death of a significant number of NATO-trained military personnel and destruction of equipment will undermine the combat capability of the Ukrainian army. This, in turn, will negatively affect the stability of the Zelensky regime," Naryshkin explained. He added that according to a number of Western assessments, Ukrainian statehood itself may be under threat because of the counteroffensive.

The head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, Aleksey Danilov, claimed during a television appearance on Monday that the counteroffensive has been progressing in line with Kiev's schedule.

"Everything is going according to a plan, which had been approved and developed. There are no deviations from it," Danilov said, adding that only "a limited circle of people know" what this plan actually is.