destruction
© Unknown
In October 1990, I gave a lecture at Columbia University. One of those present sarcastically asked: "Don't you think that the bell is ringing for communism?" I told him that John Donne had a poem where there is this line, Hemingway used it as an epigraph: "Never ask for whom the bell tolls. The bell is ringing for you!" I mean that the destruction of the Soviet system is the beginning of the end of your system, in 10-15 years. The audience laughed... But in 2008 the crisis really came. The crisis that was predicted in the West in the early 80s.

And now the question arises, in fact, for whom does the bell toll? He is calling the existing world system. And if Russia remains mentally, economically, socially in such a lax form a part of this world, then the bell will ring for her too. Another thing is that if Russia were not part of this world, but was, say, a socialist system in itself, everything would be different...as expected in the American forecasts of the early 80s.

In the early 1980s, Reagan ordered forecasts from three groups of economists for the next 15 years. And they came to absolutely identical conclusions, and then together they summed up the overall result. The forecast was as follows: ahead of the "two-humped" crisis - 1987-1992-93. Production in the capitalist segment falls by 20-25%, in the socialist - by 10-12%.

The political result of this whole affair for the West is the coming to power of the communists in Italy and France, on their own or in an alliance of leftist forces. In the UK, the Labor Left is making a comeback. And in the USA - no one returns anywhere, but Negro riots in all major cities. There was a separate forecast for the Soviet system: it slipped through this crisis much easier. But it turned out the way it did. Capitalism was not built, but we suffer from its ulcers, be healthy. The people who built criminal capitalism at best are suffering from the plagues of global capitalism.

Apparently, that period in the history of mankind, which was characterized by rapid growth, is ending forever. I mean the technical breakthrough, which, conditionally, went from the middle of the 18th century to the 80s of the 20th century. It must be said that after the Neolithic revolution, economic growth, in antiquity, in the Middle Ages, in Asian societies, was 0.2% per year. It was an asymptote. And suddenly there was a sharp jerk! But this breakthrough is really coming to an end.

This does not mean that tomorrow everyone will switch to a pre-industrial economy. But in the sense that there really is a certain limit. In principle, this is nothing new for those who once, in the 60s, followed the conferences in Byurakan, here in Armenia, dedicated to the search for extraterrestrial civilizations. There was a lot of discussion about whether we are alone in the universe. And basically the points of view of Stanislav Lem and our astronomer Shklovsky clashed. Lem said, "We are alone." Shklovsky said, "To hell with us in the universe."

But Kardashev, who created his own typology of extraterrestrial civilizations, found a third solution. He said that "we are alone in the sense that the technical phase of any civilization cannot last longer than a certain time." His hypothetical scheme is very important for us now, for the prospects for the development of earthly civilization and the post-capitalist system. As Kardashev himself said, our modern system - capitalism / socialism together - uses only 0.16 of the energy potential of the planet. And there are practically no prospects for using something more. This does not mean that development stops there. Or does it not mean that we need to implement the version of the Club of Rome and Schwab. Because Schwab, in fact, with the exception of stakeholder capitalism, did not come up with anything new compared to the crooks from the Club of Rome.

Let me remind you that the Club of Rome was founded in 1968. Formally, it was created by three people - Alexander King (Great Britain), Aurelio Peccei, who represented the Vatican, as well as the southern German and northern Italian elites, and Germain Gvishiani. He was Kosygin's son-in-law and the son of Beria's only deputy, who was not shot, but only removed his epaulettes and orders. The Club of Rome was one of the means of penetration of the Soviet nomenklatura when, in the second half of the 60s, it de facto abandoned the breakthrough of the real building of communism, de facto (in ideology, of course, no one said this), into the capitalist system. There were two organizational ways of integration. This is the structure "Network", it is also Pitovranov's "Firm". And the second is the Club of Rome.

The Club of Rome already in 68-69 began to prepare the first report "The Limits to Growth" on the model of Forrester's "One World". And even then it was clear what kind of model it was - reducing consumption, reducing the population of the planet.

The most interesting thing is that at the same time an alternative system was developed in the Soviet Union. In 1965 at the Moscow State Pedagogical Institute. Lenin, a laboratory for the analysis of system development of systems ("Laboratory of Systems Development Management Systems", abbreviated as "LASURs") was created. It was led by an absolutely fantastic person. He is little known, but I think that someday Russia will report for the second half of the 20th century in the name of this person - Pobisk Kuznetsov.

They developed their own model of the development of the world system. If there were five variables and capital in The Limits to Growth, there were 30 variables here. And the person who watched both versions said that "LaSURs" was written by a very powerful doctor of sciences, and "The Limits to Growth" was written by an excellent student. According to the LaSURs model, the system is moving to an asymptotic regime, but it can feed up to 30 billion people. Then some very interesting things happened. The leaders of LaSURs are accused of wasting money. Pobiska Kuznetsov is expelled from the party and imprisoned in the Serbsky Institute. His friends pull him out of there, then he is reinstated in the party. He even advises Andropov and predicts the crisis of the capitalist system at the end of the 20th century. But the system was broken. This happened for one simple reason: since the Soviet nomenklatura staked on entering the Western world through the Club of Rome, all alternatives had to be eliminated. On top of that, there was still a struggle within the various groups of the Soviet nomenklatura.

What is very important for us here? This means that the problems that Schwab is talking about are the problems of the capitalist system. Moreover, the transition from the exponent to the asymptote is planned in such a way that the owners of the capsystem smoothly flow into the owners of another system. But for this they need to significantly reduce the population of the planet. Moreover, if earlier it was said about two billion, now they are talking about half a billion. There is such a primatologist Jane Goodall, she is involved in globalist structures. Goodall recently said: "The population of the planet should be the same as 500 years ago." Then there were 491 million.

I often hear: "Well, what can a simple person do in such a situation?" The fact is that in transitional situations, when the old system breaks down and the new one has not yet taken shape, necessity and chance almost equalize. And when, in an equilibrium situation, a butterfly sits on one scale, it outweighs. And then there is an inertial process. And it is precisely in such periods that we are experiencing that very often the development of events depends on the individual choice of each person. And in order to decide, you need to have knowledge. Therefore, I allow myself to add the final phrase from my book The Bells of History:
"Only subjective and free rational knowledge about society will teach people not to be afraid of the ringing of the bells of history It will teach you to live without hopes of reward, because being a man is the greatest reward. Live without illusions because life is the best of illusions. To live without idealizing the past, without complaining about the present and without being afraid of the future. Teach the courage to be and the courage to know. To know and be a man, a man free from defeatism..."
Everything depends on the person, especially when social worlds are collapsing and the bells of History are ringing.