© Evan Vucci, Chinag Ying-ying/Associated Press
Apparently taking a phone call from the president of Taiwan is a major diplomatic change from the so-called "One China Policy" that imagines Taiwan as a rogue province of China, not its own country. Reports are saying this call was planned, not a mistake on the Trump team's side.
Was this a mistake by Trump?
If you look at this call through the filter of normal politics it is clearly a mistake. It provokes the Chinese leadership and gains nothing obvious in return. The media is reporting this event as exactly the sort of thing that leads to nuclear annihilation. This is the same mainstream media that got everything wrong about Trump for the past year.
But if you look at this situation through the filter of a Master Persuader, it makes perfect sense. Trump is "setting the table" for future negotiations with China. He just subtracted something from China's brand that they value, and later he will negotiate with them to maybe give it back in some fashion. Probably in return for some trade concessions.
But what about the risk? Does it ever make sense to poke a nuclear power? In this case, probably yes. As I have said in this blog before, China's leadership is both mature and competent. Many of them have engineering degrees. They understand what Trump is doing, and none of it is a path to war because neither side has any interest in war. None. Zero.
I can imagine some scenarios in which China and the U.S. might dangerously escalate toward war, but one friendly call to a major trading partner isn't one of the scenarios.
But why take that call now? Shouldn't Trump have cleared this with Obama, or waited until he was President?
No. Because the Obama administration would have advised him not to do it. And waiting until January is the way old politics is done. This sort of bold, rapid action is evidently what Trump wants you to think is his brand as president. The Taiwan call is consistent with the New CEO Play that I described in this post. He's setting the tone as bold, effective, and not waiting for red tape to slow him down.
Don't worry about China going to war over a phone call. They understand Trump, in part because they read my blog too. And look at the brilliance of China's diplomatic response. Their Foreign Minister labelled the phone call, "a shenanigan by the Taiwan side." That is exquisite diplomatic framing, Master Persuader-style. You can see why China and Trump respect each other; they both earned it.
Mutual respect is a safe place to be. Relax. Adults are in charge.
Reader Comments