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Despite the fact that during his trial in 2012 Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr claimed that he never was in possession of any kind of weapons and did not call for violence, he was sentenced to death all the same. Saudi authorities have been well aware of the fact that the execution of this influential Shia cleric will be regarded as a blatant injustice by all Shiites across the whole region, still he was executed together with jihadists to stress the fact that Saudi authorities see no difference between terrorists and fighters for their civil rights and freedoms. Not surprisingly, the violent death the preacher faced has made him into a martyr, whose only fault was his devotion to Islam and his criticism of the ruling Al-Saud clan that he sometimes voiced. On January 3 the Iranian spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that the Saudi politicians are going to experience the holy wraith on themselves for this crime. As for the West, its reaction on this medieval act of barbarity has been pretty toothless.
But Iranians were not satisfied with massive demonstrations and protests all across the country, they broke into the Saudi diplomatic missions in Tehran and Mashhad, breaking and setting fire to everything they saw on their way. Still, local police units were quick to restore order. In response, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir announced that Saudi Arabia is going to break off its diplomatic ties with Iran due to its "explicit interference in the internal affairs of the kingdom." Saudi diplomats were immediately withdrawn from Iran, while Iranian diplomats were asked to leave the KSA (Kingdom Saudi Arabia) within 48 hours. In addition, Saudi authorities said they're planning to cancel all flights to Iran and prohibit their subjects, except for pilgrims, from visiting Iran. Washington tried to soothe contradictions between the two states but hasn't found any success on this route. However, the leaders of Saudi Arabia made it clear to their overseas partners that they will not tolerate the fact that Iran, with the tacit approval of the United States and other Western countries, continues to improve its offensive military capabilities.
Following Saudi Arabia's example Bahrain and Sudan announced that they are breaking off their diplomatic ties with Iran too. Additionally, the United Arab Emirates have already announced that it's going to cut the number of its diplomatic representatives in the Islamic republic of Iran. Moreover, as stated by the Deputy Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ahmed Ben Helli, this organization is going to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the diplomatic conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
It is obvious that the execution of the Shia preacher served as a pretext for a new aggravation between Iran and the Sunni Arab states led by Saudi Arabia. In a situation when there's a growing number of political and economic contradictions between Riyadh and Tehran, the intensification of the aggressive war of words was just a matter of time.
The agreement between Tehran and the West on the Iranian nuclear program and, as a consequence, the expected withdrawal of economic sanctions regime from Iran brings this state out of artificially imposed international isolation, allowing it to once again become one of the leading regional powers. It's no secret that Iran is the center of one of the main branches of Islam - Shia fundamentalism, which serves as an antithesis to the Sunni-Wahhabi version of Islam that prevails today in Saudi Arabia and several other Persian Gulf monarchies. Tehran's influence in the Middle East in recent years has considerably strengthened, be it Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Libya, or Bahrain's Shia community. The Gulf monarchies are terrified by the strengthening "Shia arc" in the region, so they are pretty reluctant to share power or resources with Shia minorities. The greatest irritation among all for the Wahhabi regimes is their inability to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and suppress the Houthi uprising in Yemen. That is why, despite the formal claims that they are fighting international terrorism, the Gulf monarchies keep on supporting radical Islamist groups in the region.
Moreover, Iran makes no secret of the fact that they are going to grab their own part of the oil market and restore the pre-sanction levels of oil production. Allegedly, Iran could be providing the market with up to 1 million barrels of oil per day. Moreover, it prepared to pursue the collapse of OPEC if the members of this organization would not agree to return all of its quotas. The conflict between Riyadh and Tehran has already caused some increase in oil prices. Thus, Brent grew by 3.35%, breaking the mark of 38 dollars per barrel, while WTI grew by 3.5%. The dollar has also went up since invetors are traditionally buying American dollars against a background of immediate geopolitical threats. Paradoxically, but Washington benefits from the Middle Eastern face-off.
There's no telling how far will Iran and Saudi Arabia go in their confrontation, but one cannot not exclude any further provocations from both sides and even attempts to use armed forces in this conflict. But, for the sake of objectivity, it should be noted that any direct military confrontation is not serving the interests of neither of the states. Tehran is determined to see the withdrawal of the sanctions imposed on it by the UN and Western countries to become a full member of the international community. In turn, Riyadh has to reckon with the increased military and economic potential of Iran and it would not aggravate its relations with Washington any further. Yet, the situation can get out of control pretty quickly...
Stanislav Ivanov, PhD in History, leading research fellow of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations and the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, exclusively for the online magazine "New Eastern Outlook".
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