But since late December 2014, U.S. stocks have gone nowhere as investors face some growing realities.
GDP, retail sales, production and exports are slowing.
The dollar's sharp rise in recent years has crushed global exports.
Long term interest rates are rising consistently... what I call the beginning of the end of stimulus policies designed to keep rates low forever.
Meanwhile, in just six months Germany saw its key stock market, the DAX, rise nearly 50% from mid-October into early April.
Germany's bubble has shot up 245% since March 2009 — greater than the U.S., despite its slower economy.
It won't last!
There's one reason Germany has held up as well as it has in the last year: the euro.
When the euro falls, German exports soar. Between April 2014 and March 2015 the euro fell 25%. Its long-term peak was in July 2008 at 1.60 dollars. It hit 1.05 in March — 34.5% lower!
Consider that Germany exports 50% of its GDP. That's one of the highest ratios in the world.
Hence, the falling euro gives it a huge advantage. But the euro has barely budged for three months...
That explains why the DAX has fallen 10% since early April, which is when I believe it reached its long-term peak. When the next great crash hits, it's likely to take the DAX down to its early 2009 low, at least — a 72% crash likely by early 2017.
But if Germany looks bad, there's nothing short of "terrible" to say about China! China's stock market makes Germany's late-stage bubble look pathetic!
After a "dead" market from 2010 into mid-2014, China's stocks have literally exploded again... up 159% in a straight shot in one year while its economy and exports have continued to slow!
A 48% late-stage bubble in Germany unwarranted by its demographics... 159% in China despite its weakening economy.
What's driving this mania?
The greatest real estate bubble in modern history just had the legs cut out from underneath it.
So in recent months, investors urgent to find new gains have suddenly piled into stocks.
Cities like Vancouver, Sydney, Melbourne, New York — they've all inflated to unnatural highs due to the baby boomers and wealthy Chinese desperate to get out of China.
Now that these cities are cracking, investors are speculating in stock markets — but not ours as the many visible headwinds facing the U.S. made foreign markets like Germany and China look like better deals.
This is the opposite of what happened in the early 2000s. As U.S. stocks crashed from March 2000 onward, investors jumped into real estate, creating a bubble into early 2006.
New trading accounts have skyrocketed since. Two-thirds belong to people that don't have so much as a high school diploma.
Like I say, the dumb money always piles in right before the market crashes!
Just look at what happened last time. The great late-stage bubble came out of China right before the whole thing popped, and they crashed more than anybody. The exact same thing is happening again!
China's bubble recently hit 5,500. It's likely to go a bit higher, but I do not see the Shanghai Composite exceeding its 2007 all-time high of just over 6,000.
I'm expecting China to suffer an 83% crash likely by early 2017, to its 2005 lows near 1,000 — minimum!
The emergence of these late-stage bubbles while the world's leading economies stall is the clearest sign yet that this global bubble is getting ready to burst.
Putting it in a bank isn't a good idea as our glorious leaders have arranged for it to be bailed-in (stolen) when our banks fail. Many people who think they are in the stock market are actually not the registered owner of the shares, their broker is, and their money is actually in a bank account awaiting bail in.
Government Bonds? Well they seem to be falling quite fast across the world as the yield goes up. An easy way to lose capital. Stocks? Yeah, buy at the top and lose capital that way. Of course many of the hedge funds, er sorry, banks have been buying stocks rather than lend out money at low interest rates. This might in fact limit a crash. I mean do they want to hold cash? They know what that is worth. At least stocks have some value. US stocks are I believe less overvalued than they seem as real inflation over the past few years has been much higher than the official figures and the dollar is over valued.
The only safe places are hard assets. With property in a bubble you could buy fine art, fine wine or commodities. The supreme safe havens are precious metals which are cheap especially dollar relative.