Comment: See also:

• Was Israeli intelligence behind assassination of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
• Search for Iranian president's downed helicopter hampered by rain, fog
• Iranian president confirmed dead in helicopter crash

Comment: Nice effort by Mr. Eckel, but the reality on the ground can be subjected to only so much spin.

Comment: See also: Iranian president confirmed dead in helicopter crash

Comment: RFE/RL has more:

The ICC's three pretrial judges will determine whether there is sufficient evidence to issue warrants. ICC spokesman Fadi Al-Abdallah told RFE/RL in an e-mail that the ICC judges "will issue their decision in due course" but did not offer a specific time frame.

Louis Charbonneau, United Nations director at Human Rights Watch said:

"Karim Khan's decision to seek arrest warrants for five people for grave international crimes committed in Israel and Palestine since October 7 in the face of pressure from U.S. lawmakers and others reaffirms the crucial role of the [court]. Victims of serious abuses in Israel and Palestine have faced a wall of impunity for decades. This principled first step by the prosecutor opens the door to those responsible for the atrocities committed in recent months to answer for their actions at a fair trial."

David Bosco, a professor at Indiana University-Bloomington and an expert on the ICC, said:

"One thing that's important to note is that over the years that the ICC has been operating, the judges and the prosecutor do not always agree. So it's not a foregone conclusion that the prosecutor will get all the arrest warrants that he wants, or for the precise charges that he wants. I think the arrest warrants for Hamas are probably more straightforward in the sense that you have...the October 7 attack that seemed to be aimed primarily at civilians.

"With Israel, you've got a more complicated situation involving humanitarian aid and whether Israel has been allowing enough humanitarian aid in and has it actually been trying to use starvation as a weapon? Those are somewhat more complicated cases, I would say, from a legal perspective."

Anthony Dworkin, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former executive director of the Crimes of War Project, said:

"The warrants represent a significant moment, both in the evolution of the International Criminal Court and the conflict in the Middle East."

"We've seen before many countries, a number of leaders, being indicted by the ICC or having arrest warrants issued against them, but this is the first time a country that's an ally of the West in Europe and the United States has had an arrest warrant against them.

"I think even the fact that the prosecutor is seeking arrest warrants is likely to step up pressure on those countries that are particularly supporting Israel militarily to really review the kind of support that they're giving [and] to investigate whether they believe that military assistance is being used to commit war crimes."

The Rome Statute, the 1998 treaty establishing the International Criminal Court, has been signed by 124 countries.

The six-member panel wrote in an opinion article for the Financial Times on May 20:

"It is important to understand that the charges have nothing to do with the reasons for the conflict. The charges concern waging war in a manner that violates the long-established rules of international law that apply to armed groups and the armed forces in every state in the world."

Comment: See also:

• Bombshell admission: Ukrainian MP claims Joe Biden was 'personally paid $900K by Burisma'
• New 'Biden-Poroshenko' tapes reveal Hunter Biden was paid 'protection money' by Burisma
• Biden family corruption allegations spread like a cancer

Comment: Is Gantz setting up his next move? Netanyahu will be the last to budge.

Comment:
1) Estonia is as populations go, a minute NATO country with 1.38 million people. To let Kaja Kallas be the spokesperson for this announcement is probably a choice from higher up.

2) The next is more elaborate, and might serve as a case study, based on which similar instances could be evaluated.

When Zakharova writes: "Some nations are already getting their trainers back. But they keep mum about that." she is probably saying it as it is. Just as small Estonian reveals one bit, so another small country can serve as an example of what might, after all, occasionally come out about "getting their trainers back."

As an initial disclaimer, there is no definitive evidence for the following interpretation, but it may still be illustrative and perhaps help to identify other similar announcements from other countries, if they occur, which can then be evaluated for the information they may reveal.

From the Danish Defense, there was if translated:

Danish soldier killed in the Netherlands
The Danish Armed Forces have sadly received the news that a Danish soldier has died in a parachute accident in the Netherlands. The next of kin have been informed.
May 19, 2024 - 23:45 pm
A Danish soldier has died in a parachute accident. The accident happened in the Netherlands during a privately arranged trip.

"It is with great sadness that I have received the news that one of our soldiers has died in a parachuting accident. My thoughts are with the bereaved and relatives during this difficult time," says the Chief of the Army, Major General Peter H. Boysen.

The circumstances surrounding the accident are still unclear. The defense has nothing further to add at this time.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

Notice the wording, privately arranged trip, which corresponds to what Kaja Kallas said: "you know the country is at war and you go to a risk zone. So you take the risk".

Notice also the expression: "The next of kin have been informed." How come it was privately arranged, when the family didn't know, but the Army did? Moreover it was the Army that informed the next of kin.

However, the Army did not know too much, because "The circumstances surrounding the accident are still unclear. The defense has nothing further to add at this time."

Next, considering that it was parachuting, if it was not a pilot and not a hobby parachutist, the deceased might well have belonged to the Jaeger Corps, a group of elite soldiers, which here means that from the intake only 10 % of the applicants pass the course.
The Danish Wiki, for "Jægersoldat" writes if translated:

As a fully trained Jaeger soldier, you have a duty to serve outside the country's borders, e.g. in peacekeeping and peacemaking tasks under NATO, the UN and the OSCE.

The Danish Wiki for Jaeger Corps has for the same entry, if translated:

The Jaeger Corps was used as a reconnaissance unit, one year before Denmark chose to enter the Iraq War. In addition, they have been deployed in Mali. [4]

[...]
A hunter patrol typically consists of eight men: a patrol leader, a second-in-command, and a number of specialists (including a sanitation man, blaster, signalman, scout, and sniper).

Given the above scenario, because we can't know for sure, if the soldier did not operate alone, whether together with the same nationality or of another, and if we for the sake of an estimate work with a killed-to wounded-rate of 1:10, then there ought to be at least a couple of others that are no longer functional as "trainers" of Ukrainian soldiers; who are either in hospital or have returned home.

If this soldier really died while on a mission, then it is possible, that there are others who also died. At least it is interesting that since the above statement from the Army is so general that if all next of kin have been paid to silence, and nobody knows who the others are, a little notice like the above would serve for x number of simultaneous instances. Isn't that interesting?

Finally, the coincidence in time between the statements from Kaja Kallas, Maria Zakharova and now this notice from the Danish Defence, coming within hours of each other, can hardly be overlooked. When the Danish Defence writes, "Danish soldier killed in the Netherlands" is one not allowed to ask: "Really?" Because, what are the odds?

Comment: The rumours of the assassination attempt emerged on social media on May 6th. Shortly afterwards, it was refuted by the mainstream press. Yahoo reports:

No, there wasn't an assassination attempt on Saudi Crown Prince MBS

• Both traditional media outlets and social media users started sharing a video of a car accident on the evening of May 6, claiming that it showed an assassination attempt on the life of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS.
• In reality, this video shows a car accident that took place on March 16, 2024. No one was injured in the crash, according to emergency responders, the Saudi Civil Defense.

Neither the article by Nabd News nor the tweet from the Beirut News Center mentioned Mohammed bin Salman. However, later on, Russian accounts on Telegram started reporting that the crown prince was the victim of an assassination attempt.

Read more on The Observers - France 24

Which traditional media outlets? And just because the video was allegedly wrongly associated with the rumour, does that mean the rumour had no basis in fact? Even without an assassination attempt, these postponements are notable. And, in light of recent incidents, more so.

On the 11th of May, the crown prince postponed a scheduled meeting in Pakistan for, what they stated at the time, 'unspecified reasons'.

Then, on the 20th of May the trip to Japan was cancelled, allegedly because of the king's hospitalisation:

Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman's much-anticipated visit to Pakistan has been deferred for unspecified reasons, a report said on Saturday. He was earlier expected to arrive in Islamabad on May 19 on a two-day visit, Geo News reported.

Commenting on the visit of the Saudi crown prince, Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zehra Baloch on Friday clarified that details of the visit will be made public as soon as a schedule is worked out between Islamabad and Riyadh. Baloch was confident that the visit would take place soon and surely be valuable as the people of Pakistan were anxiously waiting for the leader from the brotherly country.

The high-level visit was likely to take place after the recent diplomatic and trade-related engagements between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's visit to the Kingdom in March.

The expected visit of the top dignitary, which has now been delayed, possesses vital importance to cash-strapped Pakistan eyeing big investment from Saudi Arabia in diverse fields. It would also materialise the understanding between both countries in Makkah for attracting Saudi investments worth USD 5 billion in Pakistan in the coming days.

It would be the first visit of Mohammad Bin Salman to Pakistan in five years as he last visited the country in February 2019 during the rule of former prime minister Imran Khan. He was due to visit Pakistan in 2022 as part of his visit to the region but the visit was called off at the 11th hour.

Another last minute cancellation?

The visit will see the third in-person meeting between Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in a period spanning five weeks. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy strong trade, defence, and cultural ties.

The Kingdom is home to over 2.7 million Pakistani expatriates and serves as a top source of remittances to the cash-strapped country.

Murad Sadygzade writing for RT, on the 12th of May, gave the following analysis of the rumoured assassination attempt:

Royal bounty: Who would want to kill the Saudi Crown Prince, and why?

Reports about a recent assassination attempt on Mohammed bin Salman appear to have been false - but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

Recently, several media outlets reported an attack on the convoy of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). However, these claims appear to have been false.

The video and information about burning cars in Riyadh emerged in a post by X (formerly Twitter) user Winter Intel, whose account analysis indicates an unreliable source. Later, the General Directorate of Civil Defense of Saudi Arabia reported an accident involving two cars, one of which had caught fire. The agency confirmed that there were no casualties.

Many Saudi journalists also debunked the news of the attack, calling it fake. Despite the widespread presence of fake news in the modern information space, questions remain about who could have an interest in spreading such rumors, and why. Could there indeed be an assassination attempt on MBS, and what might the reasons be?

Vision 2030: A great reformer for a nation of the future

Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, initiated comprehensive reforms in the kingdom from the moment he assumed key positions of power. His ambitious reform program "Vision 2030" reflects a strategic plan to transform various aspects of the country's economy, society, and culture. The primary economic goal is to reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil, and MBS has taken several critical steps toward this objective.

Sectors like tourism, entertainment, information technology, healthcare, industry, and mining are being developed. Saudi Arabia aims to increase the share of the non-oil sector in GDP from 16% to 50%. Privatization of state-owned enterprises is another vital element. The process of partial privatization of Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, has begun, as well as privatization of other public enterprises in various sectors.

At the same time, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), one of the largest sovereign funds in the world, with assets exceeding $620 billion, was established. The fund finances many strategic investments within and beyond the country, including the major project to build the futuristic NEOM megacity on the Red Sea coast. To stimulate the private sector, MBS has paid particular attention to developing small and medium-sized businesses, creating favorable conditions for entrepreneurship and foreign investment, including lifting restrictions on foreign ownership of businesses in the country.

MBS has also brought significant changes to Saudi Arabian social life. The most critical step was expanding women's rights: they can now drive, attend sports stadiums, start their own businesses, and travel without a male guardian's permission. Mandatory gender segregation at public events has also been abolished. Additionally, the establishment of the General Entertainment Authority has led to the emergence of concerts, cinemas, festivals, and other forms of entertainment previously strictly prohibited.

Opening Saudi Arabia to foreign tourists is another key social reform. Thanks to the introduction of tourist visas, the country has for the first time become accessible to visitors not involved in a pilgrimage. In the cultural sphere, MBS is promoting development of arts and culture. The General Culture Authority was created, launching initiatives to support local artists and cultural projects. Special attention is also given to preserving Saudi Arabia's cultural heritage, restoring historical sites and opening them to visitors.

Whilst also evicting local tribes for vanity projects: Saudi cuts back widely ridiculed NEOM desert city plans by 98%

Political reforms have also become an essential part of "Vision 2030." In November 2017, MBS launched an anti-corruption campaign, arresting dozens of princes and businessmen. This campaign allowed significant sums to be returned to the state treasury, which were then used to finance key reforms. The government service reform introduced new standards for civil servants and improved the efficiency of the government apparatus.

Despite the complexity and scale of the changes, MBS continues to advance Vision 2030, striving to make Saudi Arabia more progressive, modern, and sustainable in the future.

"Challenges of 2030": What problems does MBS face?

MBS' reforms are already changing the face of Saudi Arabia, but they have sparked strong reactions, both domestically and internationally. Vision 2030 is an ambitious plan to transform Saudi Arabia but the implementation of the program faces significant challenges.

Despite notable achievements, MBS' reforms have drawn criticism from both inside the country and abroad. The anti-corruption campaign was accompanied by harsh repression of dissent. The November 2017 move on princes and businessmen returned significant sums to the state. However, this step by MBS was also seen as an attempt to eliminate political opponents, consolidate his power, and suppress dissent.

The arrests of activists and journalists have restricted freedom of speech and political participation, provoking strong criticism from international human-rights organizations. The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 cemented a negative image of MBS in the eyes of the global community. This crime became a symbol of a brutal suppression of opposition, and several Western countries imposed sanctions on Saudi officials suspected of involvement in the killing.

The UN and international human rights organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have raised concerns and leveled criticism at MBS for the arrests of journalists, bloggers and activists, including female activists fighting for women's rights such as Loujain al-Hathloul. Strict laws on insulting religion and the state, mistreatment of prisoners, and the kingdom's use of the death penalty continue to attract global attention.

Another source of international criticism is the war in Yemen. Saudi Arabia, led by MBS, headed a coalition against the Houthis in 2015. The conflict has led to massive civilian casualties and a humanitarian crisis in Yemen. MBS was accused of waging a war that disproportionately targeted civilian infrastructure, and of blockading Yemen, which led to widespread famine.

Sharp economic and social changes have also triggered resistance within Saudi Arabia. Despite efforts to develop non-oil sectors, oil remains a significant source of the country's revenue. The recent sharp decline in global oil prices has exposed the vulnerability of the kingdom's economy. Vision 2030 aims to reduce Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil revenue, but economic diversification has proven to be a challenging task.

The reforms have faced the most resistance from religious and conservative circles. Most significantly, expanding women's rights was met with fierce criticism from the religious establishment and conservative parts of the population, who see such reforms as a threat to traditional Islamic values.

These problems are not without historical parallels to the reforms of King Faisal, who also faced challenges in modernizing Saudi Arabia in the mid-20th century. King Faisal, the uncle of MBS, also carried out reforms that changed Saudi Arabia. He sought to reduce the country's dependence on oil by developing infrastructure and non-oil sectors of the economy. In the 1960s and 1970s, he introduced a mandatory education system for girls despite conservative opposition, and sought a more modern, open Saudi Arabia. However, he was shot and killed by his nephew, although the real reasons behind this act remain unclear.

However, there are significant differences between the reforms of MBS and King Faisal. King Faisal acted cautiously and gradually, avoiding abrupt changes, while MBS aims for rapid results, often causing social upheaval. King Faisal was more diplomatic in his approach to opponents, whereas MBS employs harsh methods to suppress adversaries of reform. The anti-corruption campaign and its mass arrests have become part of MBS' strategy to consolidate power, which critics see as authoritarian.

Rising external tensions

The United States remains Saudi Arabia's primary strategic partner, but relations between the two countries have often been strained due to MBS' policies. After the Khashoggi murder, the US Congress and the Biden administration sharply criticized the crown prince. The CIA linked this crime directly to MBS, which led to sanctions against several Saudi officials and complicated relations with Washington. The US also expressed concern over the war in Yemen. President Biden announced the end of US support for the Saudi campaign and reviewed arms supplies. An additional source of tension was the October 2022 OPEC+ decision led by Saudi Arabia to cut oil production, which raised energy prices and angered the Biden administration.

The US didn't care for Yemen, it cared that Saudi was pivoting to the multipolar alliance.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have traditionally been regional rivals, supporting opposing sides in conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon while also competing for influence in the Persian Gulf. The severing of their diplomatic relations in 2016 and mutual accusations of destabilizing the region heightened enmity between Riyadh and Tehran. Saudi Arabia criticizes Iran's nuclear program and supports sanctions against Tehran, fearing the possible development of Iranian nuclear weapons. However, in March 2023, with China's help, the two nations agreed to restore diplomatic relations, opening a new chapter in the Riyadh-Tehran dialogue and promising a potential reduction in regional tensions, though the fundamental causes of competition and rivalry remain.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has traditionally been a close partner of Saudi Arabia in the region, but the ambitions of its leader, Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ), create friction. The UAE seeks to become a regional economic hub, which creates competition between Dubai and Riyadh. Saudi Arabia requires international companies to move their headquarters to Riyadh to secure contracts in the kingdom, which displeases Dubai. In Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE fight the Houthis together but pursue different goals: the UAE supports the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which seeks southern Yemen's independence, while Saudi Arabia advocates a unified Yemen. In relations with Israel, the UAE normalized ties through the Abraham Accords in 2020, promoting regional cooperation, while Saudi Arabia remains hesitant to follow suit due to concerns over internal backlash.

Saudi Arabia and Israel do not have official diplomatic relations, but against the backdrop of common opposition to Iran, both states are cautiously moving towards rapprochement. Tehran remains the main adversary for both countries, providing a basis for informal security cooperation. Israel offers Saudi Arabia support in countering the Iranian threat. In the framework of the Abraham Accords, several Arab countries have normalized relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia has yet to grant official recognition, but negotiations were actively ongoing until the conflict in Gaza erupted in October 2023.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Türkiye improved after a period of tension over the Khashoggi murder. Türkiye seeks to strengthen its influence in the Middle East, competing with Saudi Arabia. Earlier, Ankara had strongly criticized Riyadh's actions in Yemen and its blockade of Qatar. In 2022, MBS visited Turkey, and the two countries agreed to improve relations. This demonstrates MBS's pragmatic approach to cooperation, even with those who have criticized him in the past.

In June 2017, Saudi Arabia, led by the UAE, Egypt, and Bahrain, imposed a blockade on Qatar, accusing it of supporting terrorism and of maintaining close ties with Iran. This created deep regional divisions and strengthened Türkiye's and Iran's influence over Qatar. However, in January 2021, Riyadh and Doha signed an agreement to restore relations and ended the blockade. Nevertheless, mutual distrust remains.

In the changing global world, Saudi Arabia faces difficulties as MBS seeks to pursue a sovereign and diversified foreign policy. Western criticism often stems not only from human-rights issues and the crown prince's harsh governance methods but also from his desire to develop relations with Russia and China. Riyadh sees China as a strategic partner in trade and investment. Saudi Arabia and Russia cooperate within OPEC+ on oil-price regulation. Riyadh maintains contacts with Moscow despite Western isolation of Russia due to the war in Ukraine.

MBS' domestic and foreign policies, despite complicated relations with many countries and forces, reflects his desire to strengthen Saudi Arabia's position as a regional leader and to reshape the kingdom. However, his harsh methods and uncompromising struggle against the opposition have intensified criticism from global and regional players, creating new challenges for the crown prince. Therefore, potential assassination attempts on the de-facto leader of modern Saudi Arabia may not be fake in the future.

His reforms are opening a new chapter in Saudi Arabian history, but they also highlight the difficulty of modernizing the kingdom amidst contradictions and resistance from various segments of society. The Vision 2030 program remains an ambitious attempt to make the kingdom more progressive, modern, and sustainable in the future, despite the many challenges on this path. After all, not everyone is interested in a strong and sovereign Saudi Arabia.

The developments in Saudi Arabia are particularly notable considering in just the last month or so there's been: a thwarted coup attempt in Turkey, with Erdogan allegedly specifically targeted; the suspicious assassination attempt of Slovakia's Fico; DR Congo's thwarted coup attempt, with evidence of American mercenaries; and the allegedly accidental death of President Raisi in Iran.

Furthermore, following those, there was also a threat made against the life of Serbia's President Vucic.

Perhaps one thread running through all of these is the desire of these leaders and nations to adopt friendly relations with Russia, and China (and, in effect, Iran), contrary to the schemes of the nefarious actors in the West-Israel; who are notorious for their involvement in coups and assassinations :

• 'You're next': Man arrested for threatening Serbia's President Vucic on social media
• Slovakian government suspects gunman who attempted to assassinate PM Robert Fico 'was not working alone
• Iranian president confirmed dead in helicopter crash
• DR Congo military thwarts 'attempted coup', claims American mercenaries arrested
• Turkey thwarts ANOTHER coup attempt, Interior Minister vows justice after 'plot against president Erdogan'
• Georgian parliamentary committee approves 'foreign influence' bill