"Of course we knew it was possible that social distancing could control a respiratory virus," says Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College professor whose maths is now for ever associated with the lockdown. "But there is an enormous cost associated with it."
Comment: No, they did not know that it was possible that "social distancing could control a respiratory virus." The idea was first bruited in a high school project, by the daughter of a 'senior scientist', just over a decade ago. Her project work didn't even win first prize because it is long since scientifically and medically established that respiratory illnesses caused by aerosolized viruses cannot be controlled by keeping people apart.
Back in 2019, about the time someone was getting infected by a bat, no European country's pandemic plans seriously entertained the prospect of putting a country on pause.
Comment: No one was infected by a bat. Sars-CoV-2 is a laboratory-tweaked coronavirus. It either leaked directly from a lab, or leaked through person-to-person transmission when people vaccinated with this experimental virus began spreading it to non-vaccinated people.
Then, that's what China did. "I think people's sense of what is possible in terms of control changed quite dramatically between January and March," Professor Ferguson says.
He is speaking in a short hiatus in another busy day. In the morning, he has spent two hours briefing a Commons select committee on the new Kent variant, which his calculations suggest spreads faster. In the afternoon, in part on the basis of those calculations, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, will put another swathe of the country into stricter restrictions. Just hearing that the professor's maths is behind another lockdown this month will at this stage in a politicised pandemic provoke some to fury.















Comment: 'A minority of people are not like us' - he wishes!
In reality, he is part of the minority that believes in the pseudo-reality they have built in their minds. And such people will not rest 'until all think and see as I do'...