- Signs of the Times for Fri, 29 Dec 2006 -

• Signs Editorials
• Mid-East Muddle
• Super Size Fire and Ice
• Health Matters
• Old Year, New Year
• The Fortress and the Fringe
• Quirks
• So-Damn Insane
• Fearless Leaders - NOT!
• Spy vs. Spy
• Fortune Cookie
• I-Racket
• Katrina Kapers
• Condi's Capers
• Governments Lie, People Lie
• South of the Border
• What? Me Worry?!
• 2001: September 11
• 2001: September 11 - Part 2

It's fishy as hell.

Paul Sanford, a prominent Aptos, California, attorney, who accused Karl Rove of treason in the Plame outing case, took a leap from the Embassy Suites Hotel in Monterey Bay on Christmas Eve. Police describe it as "probable" suicide, even though it appears Sanford was not depressed.

"Friends and associates expressed disbelief at the news of Sanford's death and that it was ruled a suicide, saying Sanford seemed happy and had made many plans for this week and in coming months. [Business associate and friend Shawn Mills] said he and Sanford recently decided to open a shared law office to serve Monterey and Santa Cruz counties, something Sanford was looking forward to doing," reports the Monterey Herald. "Mills said he had spoken to Sanford's wife, Paula, and that she also was in shock. He said Sanford, a father of two, was a devoted family man." Sanford "would never have intentionally put his family through that trauma. Something's not right, it doesn't make sense."

On July 25, 2005, in the James S. Brady Briefing Room at the White House, Sanford asked then press secretary Scott McClellan about Karl Rove, accused at the time by Joseph Wilson, the husband of Valerie Plame, of outing his wife as a CIA employee in retaliation for Wilson's op-ed published in the New York Times. Wilson criticized the citation of bogus yellowcake documents used as flimsy justification for invading Iraq and murdering more than 650,000 Iraqis.

McClellan was flummoxed by Sanford's question:

McClellan: Go ahead.

Sanford: Yes, thank you. There has been a lot of speculation concerning the meaning of the underlying statute and the grand jury investigation concerning Mr. Rove. The question is, have the legal counsel to the White House or White House staff reviewed the statute in sufficient specificity to determine whether a violation of that statute would, in effect, constitute treason?

McClellan: I think that in terms of decisions regarding the investigation, those are matters for those overseeing the investigation to decide.

Special counsel, Patrick Fitzgerald, decided not to charge Rove in the case, even though the former Donald Segretti dirty trickster understudy raised enough suspicion to warrant being called before a grand jury five times. Neocon Lewis "Scooter" Libby was charged with obstruction of justice, perjury, and making false statements to the FBI. A few weeks later, on July 13, 2006, Joseph and Valerie Wilson filed a civil suit against Cheney, Libby, Rove, and other unnamed senior White House officials, for their alleged roles in the public disclosure of her classified CIA employment.

In addition, Sanford was "a champion of the downtrodden, he represented homeless people in Santa Cruz, and fought for free speech," according to Mills. As well, he hosted a radio talk show at KOMY, an Air America affiliate, although he was not associated with the bankrupt network. Sanford and Mills also hosted the "Paul and Shawn Show" on Saturdays at the Seaside, California, radio station KRXA.

Of course, there is no evidence Paul Sanford was pushed from "at least nine floors" above the large ventilation grate where he met his fate. As well, there is no evidence he committed suicide, or did he fit the profile of a suicide. However, there is plenty of evidence Sanford was a thorn in the side of the neocons, committing the ultimate sin of accusing one particularly nasty top drawer neocon, Karl Rove, of treason.
Comment on this Editorial

As Parry notes, this declension into madness has moved from very specific targets ("terrorist groups of global reach") to the more generalized and already impossibly vague "global war on terrorism" to the new formulation: a war against "radicals and extremists" - wherever they might be, however you decide, arbitrarily, to define them, and whether or not they engage in violence against the United States.

And make no mistake: the American Establishment as a whole has bought into the "war on terror" package in one form or another, i.e., viewing the murderous actions of a few bands of criminals not as a law enforcement problem to be tackled within the traditional systems of law and representative politics but as some wholly new, ludicrously overblown existential crisis of civilization that can only be "solved" by indiscriminate military force abroad and the gutting of civil liberties at home. In the Establishment, you will find almost no voice of any substance, reach or power that contests the latter view, although a few might quibble on how best to prosecute this endless war. Thus, the benchmarks that Bush is setting today, the way he is defining the "Long War" and establishing the patterns of executive power to deal with it will have a very large and continuing impact even when he is out of office. Why? Because as Parry shows here, Bush's expanding definitions of this endless war are being accepted by the Establishment - even now, when he is at one of the lowest ebbs of popular support that any president has ever faced.

So you should read Parry's whole piece. It's important not only as a description of what is happening today, but also as a guideline for where we will be heading in the future.

Bush's 'Global War on Radicals' (consortiumnews.com)

Excerpts: The United States will never win the "war on terror," in part, because George W. Bush keeps applying elastic definitions to the enemy, most recently expanding the conflict into a war against Muslim "radicals and extremists."

With almost no notice in Official Washington, Bush has inserted this new standard for judging who's an enemy as he lays the groundwork for a wider conflict in the Middle East and a potentially endless world war against many of the planet's one billion adherents to Islam.

Indeed, it could be argued that the "war on terror" has now morphed into the "war on radicals," allowing Bush to add the likes of Iraqi Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and the leaders of Syria and Iran to his lengthening international enemies list...

Now, Bush is broadening the war's parameters yet again, depicting the goal of his Middle East policy as defeating "radicals and extremists," categories that are even more elastic than the word "terrorist."

At a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Dec. 7, Bush said, "I believe we're in an ideological struggle between forces that are reasonable and want to live in peace, and radicals and extremists." Bush has repeated this formulation in other recent public appearances, including at his news conference of Dec. 20 when he portrayed the fight against "radicals and extremists" as a long-term test of American manhood....

In other words, the war against "terrorist groups of global reach," which became the "global war on terrorism," now has morphed into what might be called the "global war on radicals and extremists," a dramatic escalation of the war's ambitions with nary a comment from the U.S. news media.

So, under Bush's new war framework, the enemy doesn't necessarily have to commit or plot acts of international terrorism or even local acts of terrorism. It only matters that Bush judges the person to be a "radical" or an "extremist." While the word "terrorism" is open to abuse - under the old adage "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" - the definition of "radical" or "extremist" is even looser. It all depends on your point of view.



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Sheehan arrested near Bush ranch

AP
29/12/2006

CRAWFORD, Texas - Peace activist Cindy Sheehan and four other protesters were arrested Thursday for blocking a road near President Bush's ranch, authorities said.

Sheehan and the others lay or sat in the road for about 20 minutes and didn't heed requests to move, Texas Department of Public Safety Lt. R.T. King said.

"They weren't going unless they were arrested," King told The Associated Press.
Sheehan told the Waco Tribune-Herald that she and others were conducting a "peace surge" to address concerns that Bush may increase U.S. troop numbers in Iraq. Protesters said they had expected to be arrested.

Sheehan and the others were arrested on a misdemeanor charge of obstructing a highway passageway, said a bond clerk at the McLennan County Jail in Waco. She said it was unclear if they would be arraigned Thursday evening. If not, she said, they would have to spend the night in jail.

Among those at the ranch were Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

The protest briefly delayed state troopers who were to serve in escort motorcades for government officials meeting with Bush, King said.

None of the top advisers at the meeting were held up, Deputy White House press secretary Scott Stanzel said.

Earlier this month in New York, Sheehan was convicted of trespassing for leading a protest across the street from the United Nations.

A judge sentenced her to conditional discharge. Sheehan's attorney, Robert Gottlieb, said Thursday that meant she will not face any punishment as long as they lead a "law-abiding life" for the next year.

"There is nothing to say that what she was arrested for today means that she is not living a law-abiding life," Gottlieb told the AP. "She may in fact be innocent."

He said he didn't think Thursday's arrest would result in any problems in New York.

Sheehan, 49, of Vacaville, Calif., lost her 24-year-old son Casey in Iraq in April 2004. She has since drawn international attention after camping outside Bush's ranch to protest the war.



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Rise in New York's murder rate reflects new US appetite for guns

29 December 2006
UK Independent

The steady decline in murder rates in America's biggest cities that began in the early 1990s and earned political points for urban leaders like New York's former mayor Rudolph Giuliani appears to be bottoming out, with signs of a sharp rise in urban violence this year.

With a few exceptions, notably in Los Angeles and San Francisco, police departments across the country are recording new increases in homicide rates for 2006. Officials blame gang turf wars, the ubiquity of guns, and a willingness among young people to shoot if they feel they have been shown disrespect.
The trend prompted the Mayor of Philadelphia, John Street, to make a televised address last summer appealing to young people to cease fire. "Lay down your weapons," he pleaded. "Do it now. Choose education over violence." The number of murders in his city will exceed 400 this year for the first time in a decade.

Oakland in California fared worst this year with its homicide rate expected to soar 57 per cent. Less shocking but still worrying upturns in murder numbers are also being reported by cities as diverse as Chicago, Cincinnati, New Haven and Houston. In Houston, officials are pointing to the huge influx of refugees from Hurricane Katrina at the end of 2005.

New York, which has restored its reputation worldwide as a tourist-friendly city partly on the basis of years of falling murder rates, is not immune from the new trend.

As of Christmas Eve, the city had seen 579 murders in its five boroughs, an increase over 2005 of about 10 per cent.

Some neighbourhoods of New York contributed disproportionately to the worsening statistics. Some precincts in Harlem - whichhas undergone significant gentrification after being in the grip of violent crime for years - saw a doubling of murder rates in 2006.

Officials point out, however, that last year's tally of 539 murders in New York was the lowest for 40 years. The increase is partly due also to a reclassification of what counts as murders, by including in the tally a number of people who died from gun and stab wounds suffered in previous years. But even without those, the number would still be up marginally. It is a distressing statistic for Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

His predecessor, Mr Giuliani, has used his record of slashing crime in New York, combined with the plaudits earned for his response to the 9/11 terror attacks, to build a national political platform that may see him seeking the Republican nomination for President. Some believe that the current Mayor could also have presidential ambitions.

Mr Bloomberg has repeatedly complained about a flood of weapons into the city from neighbouring states. Several times this year, the city has sued out-of-state gun shops for selling weapons that are later identified as having been fired in murder cases in New York.

Tackling the mentality of some young people will be difficult. "They're all struggling with this thing about respect and pride," commented Francisco Ortiz, the police chief of New Haven, Connecticut, where murders rose 50 per cent this year. "It's about respect. It's about revenge. It's about having a reputation. It's about turf, and about girls."

On the brighter side, Los Angeles had reported 464 murders by Christmas Eve, a decline over last year of about 3.7 per cent, while in San Francisco the rate is expected to dip by about 15 per cent for the year.

Also seeing a significant improvement is New Orleans, largely due to a two-thirds drop in population in the months after Katrina.



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Spy vs. Spy

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Russia claims Yukos links to ex-spy's murder

Steven Myers in Moscow
Sydney Morning Herald
December 29, 2006

THE RUSSIAN Prosecutor General's Office has produced a new twist in the murder investigation of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko, by claiming a link with Yukos oil executives.

In a statement released on Wednesday the prosecutor's office said its investigation showed a connection between the radiation poisoning of Mr Litvinenko and criminal cases under way against former Yukos executives. It singled out Leonid Nevzlin, a main shareholder and partner of the company's jailed chief executive, Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
The accusation is an effort by the Russian Government to tie Mr Litvinenko's death to what it claims is a convoluted web of economic and other crimes that destroyed Yukos, once Russia's richest company. Russia's prosecution of Yukos was widely seen as a Kremlin-led campaign against a company defiant of the President, Vladimir Putin.

A spokesman for Mr Nevzlin, who lives in self-imposed exile in Israel, dismissed the accusations as "ridiculous".

The accusation against Yukos comes as a dispute between Gazprom, the Russian energy monopoly, and Belarus worsened. Gazprom reacted angrily on Wednesday to a suggestion from Belarus that it would pull natural gas out of export pipelines rather than pay a higher price for the fuel.

About 8 per cent of the European Union's gas imports pass through Belarus, which imports natural gas for domestic consumption and transits fuel to markets further to the west. Gazprom warned Poland, Lithuania and Germany of possible supply disruptions.

"We are interdependent," the Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus, Vladimir Semashko, said during an interview on Russian state television. "If I don't have a domestic gas supply contract, Gazprom won't have a transit deal."

About 20 per cent of Gazprom's exports to Europe go via Belarus, and 80 per cent through Ukraine. Mr Semashko brushed aside Gazprom's threat to halt supplies to Belarus. "With Ukraine there was an attempt like this. After two days, everything fell back into place."

A price dispute between Ukraine and Russia at the beginning of the year led to a two-day embargo that caused jitters among Gazprom's European customers.

Gazprom responded to Belarus's defiance by issuing a deadline to shut off the gas.

"You shouldn't expect new year's presents from Gazprom," a company spokesman said. "Gazprom is not Santa Claus."

Mr Nevzlin, meanwhile, who has long evaded Russian attempts at extradition, arrived in the US on Sunday prompting new demands by the Russians that the Americans arrest him.

Mr Nevzlin's name has surfaced in connection with the Litvinenko case before. He met Mr Litvinenko before his poisoning and after his death said Mr Litvinenko had provided him with a dossier that "shed light on most significant aspects of the Yukos affair". The dossier's contents are not known, but Mr Nevzlin said he had handed them to British investigators.



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How Israel's Master spy was caught and why he still stands to profit

By Joseph C. Goulden
The Washington Times
December 24, 2006

Although perhaps half a dozen books on the Pollard case have been published, Mr. Olive's towers over the pack. He writes with insider knowledge gained as the counterintelligence agent of the Naval Investigative Service (NIS), which led the Pollard investigation, and obtained the confession that left him little choice but to plead guilty. To put it bluntly, the Pollard affair was not the U.S. Navy's most shining moment. But Mr. Olive does detail how the NIS can do superb work once it centers in on a suspect.

Although readers of this newspaper know the thrust of the story, Mr. Olive provides new material on how Pollard finally came to grief. There is a hero in the sordid saga, albeit Mr. Olive leaves him anonymous by his own choice.
The afternoon of Friday, Nov. 8, 1985, a co-worker at the Anti-Terrorist Alert Center in Suitland, Md., noticed Pollard wrapping a thick batch of TS/SCI materials (top secret/special compartmented information), which he said he had received by mistake. He claimed to be preparing to return them to a documents center.

A few minutes later, the co-worker saw Pollard's wife Anne drive up to the headquarters entrance. Pollard emerged carrying the envelope he had said he was returning. Something seemed amiss. On the drive home, the co-worker discussed his suspicions with his own wife, who also had a security clearance. Perhaps there was a legitimate reason for what Pollard was doing? His wife finally told him "that if he felt so strongly there was something wrong, he needed to report it."

Thus was set into motion the chain of events that led to a defiant Pollard eventually admitting to Mr. Olive that he was giving security information to an outsider.

(Predictably, he lied, first claiming the material went to a Washington journalist.) And in due course, the Pollards were arrested outside the Israeli embassy, where they had futilely sought refuge. Mr. Olive says that "to this day, few know [the co-worker's] identity."

A secondary theme of Mr. Olive's engaging book is an account of the utter failure of systems controlling the circulation of classified material. Anyone even vaguely aware of security rules will be appalled to read how Pollard systematically obtained highly-classified documents from intelligence agencies all over the D.C. area, simply by ordering them from repositories maintained by various offices, including the CIA. Pollard had no "need to know" because the bulk of these documents he had acquired had no relevance to his work.

No matter. Internal courier services brought the papers to Pollard in carload lots. He stuffed them under his desk, and then took to his car at his leisure in briefcases. In one episode related by Mr. Olive, in a single evening Pollard lugged enough documents to fill five suitcases stacked in the rear of his car. (My neighborhood branch of the D.C. public library pays more attention to what leaves the building than did the ATAC "guards.")

Each weekend, Pollard lugged the papers to an apartment Israeli agents rented at Connecticut Avenue and Van Ness Street NW, a few blocks from the embassy. High-speed copy machines worthy of a Kinko's churned through the papers -- in 18 months, more than a million pages, enough to fill a 6-by-10-foot room that is 6 feet high.

From his prison cell, an unrepentant Pollard still claims a double-cross by U.S. prosecutors who had promised not to seek a life sentence. Mr. Olive dashes this protest: The government did not recommend the term. It was meted by U.S. District Judge Aubrey E. Robinson Jr., after reading a still-secret memo from Defense Secretary Casper Weinberger detailing the grave damage Pollard caused to national security.

Mr. Olive concludes by summarizing "reforms" intended to prevent pillaging by another Pollard. What is needed, in my view, is a dollop of common sense. Pollard first tried to join CIA. A polygraph operator caught him in a blatant lie: instead of smoking marijuana "on just a few occasions," the true count was about 600 times.

CIA rejected Pollard, who immediately applied for a navy intelligence slot. When the Defense Investigative Service asked CIA for information it might have on Pollard, the agency refused, citing his "right to privacy." Superiors who contemplated revoking Pollard's clearances because of his slip-shod handling of documents and general . . . well, workplace nuttiness . . . were deterred by threats of lawsuits.

I did detect one possible legal reason for keeping Pollard locked up despite the changes in parole laws. As part of his plea agreement, he swore not to disclose any classified material he obtained while working for the navy. Further, he swore not to "provide information for purposes of publication or dissemination" unless it was reviewed by the director of naval intelligence.

To the astonishment of prosecutors and investigators, three weeks before his sentencing, Wolf Blitzer, a correspondent for the Jerusalem Post, wrote a long article stemming from a jail-cell interview with Pollard. It also ran in the Washington Post under the headline, "Pollard: Not A Bumbler, but Israel's Master Spy."

Pollard told Mr. Blitzer what he provided the Israelis: reconnaissance satellite photography of Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) headquarters in Tunisia, specific capabilities of Libya's air defenses and far more. "In general," Mr. Blitzer wrote, "Pollard gave Israel the pick of U.S. intelligence about Arab and Islamic conventional and unconventional military activity, from Morocco to Pakistan and every country in between. This included both 'friendly' and 'unfriendly' Arab countries." (Mr. Blitzer now works for CNN.)

The U.S. Attorney's Office considered voiding the plea agreement and putting Pollard on trial but decided not to bother, given that the life sentence was at hand. When Pollard comes up for parole, hopefully some government lawyer will dust off the already-violated plea agreement and cite it as a reason to keep him behind bars.

Joseph C. Goulden is writing a book on Cold War intelligence. His e-mail is JosephG894@aol.com.



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Russia fingers Israeli fugitive in radiation poison probe

Breitbart.com
Dec 28 2006


Moscow says an anti-Kremlin businessman living in Israel could be behind the radiation poisoning of Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko, but the allegation only further complicates a spectacularly bizarre murder case.

The prosecutor general said late Wednesday it had found links between the fatal poisoning of Litvinenko in November and Leonid Nevzlin, a former executive in the Yukos oil company who fled criminal charges in Russia and is now an Israeli citizen.

Without providing details, or explanation, the prosecutor general said that traces of mercury had been found in Moscow and London and that this indicated a link to Nevzlin, who has been accused of using mercury in an alleged 2001 murder attempt against his business partner.

"We are checking out a version in which those who ordered this crime could be the same people who are now on international arrest warrants..., one of whom is deputy Yukos chairman Leonid Nevzlin," the prosecutor said in a statement.

The accusation introduces another colourful and controversial character to a murder enquiry already featuring ex-KGB men, exiled critics of President Vladimir Putin, a mysterious Italian security consultant, and allegedly the world's first use of nuclear material as a murder weapon.

But whether the addition of Nevzlin to the list helps solve the mystery behind Litvinenko's agonising death in a London hospital on November 23 -- a killing that Litvinenko and his friends blame on the Kremlin -- is another question.

Nevzlin, who has been accused of links to several murders in Russia, was one of the key figures in the Yukos oil firm headed by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, formerly Russia's richest man and now serving an eight-year sentence in Siberia for financial crimes.

Israel has refused to extradite Nevzlin to Russia and Nevzlin, like Khodorkovsky himself, claims he is being persecuted for having challenged Putin's increasingly dominating grip on power in Russia.

According to Russian press reports, an attempt is currently underway to extradite Nevzlin from the United States, where he had gone on holiday with his family. Interfax news agency reported he was briefly detained for questioning, but released.

But Alex Goldfarb, an associate of exiled Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky who was Litvinenko's friend and spokesman, told AFP that the allegation was "total nonsense."

"Accusing Nevzlin, the Kremlin is just trying to cover up," he said. The accusation "just raises the suspicion that the government is trying to hide its responsibility."

So far the Litvinenko investigation has focused on the roles of ex-KGB officer Andrei Lugovoi and former Soviet army officer Dmitry Kovtun.

They met with Litvinenko, a former security services agent who won asylum in Britain, at a London hotel on the day police believe he was poisoned with the deadly radioactive substance polonium-210.

British detectives spent two weeks in Moscow this month trying to unravel the complex web of evidence, which includes traces of polonium in Moscow, Germany, as well as at several locations in London.

Further muddying the waters, Lugovoi and Kovtun have not been seen in public for weeks and are themselves, according to Russian reports, undergoing checks or treatment for radiation poisoning.

Russia's prosecutors classify Kovtun as victim of an attempted murder involving polonium-210, while police in Germany suspect he may have been transporting the deadly material.

The Vremya Novostei newspaper described the linking of Nevzlin to the Litvinenko case as "rather extravagant."

Comment: At least this report gets closer to the real story. See Joe Quinn's Livtinenko article series for a deeper analysis of this case.

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FBI Says Files In Leak Cases Are 'Missing'

NY Sun
December 27, 2006


SAN FRANCISCO - The FBI is missing nearly a quarter of its files relating to investigations of recent leaks of classified information, according to a court filing the bureau made last week.

In response to a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, the FBI said it identified 94 leak investigations since 2001, but that the investigative files in 22 of those cases "are missing" and cannot be located. "There is no physical slip of paper on the shelf which indicates that the file has been charged out to a particular FBI employee, so therefore there is no way of knowing where the file may actually be," an official in the bureau's records division, Peggy Bellando, wrote in a December 22 declaration.
"That's an amazing number," an academic who has studied the FBI's record-keeping procedures, Athan Theoharis of Marquette University, said in an interview yesterday. "These are very sensitive investigations. ... They could be called to account for whether they are monitoring reporters. These are records that should be handled very well."

Over the past decade, the FBI has waged an epic struggle to computerize and automate its records systems. The agency abandoned a $170 million "Virtual Case File" project last year after years of Congressional hearings and critical evaluations led to the conclusion that the system would never be implemented successfully.

One frequent critic of government database programs, Barry Steinhardt of the American Civil Liberties Union, said that record makes it understandable that a substantial proportion of the leak files would be mislaid.

Comment: The FBI should give AIPAC or the ADL a call, they will certainly be able to help with locating the files.

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School Cameras Spy On Kids In Toilets

Barking and Dagenam Recorder
27/12/2006

CHILDREN as young as four are being filmed in school toilets across Barking and Dagenham.

The Recorder has discovered a number of CCTV cameras have been installed in primary and secondary schools.

Officials at Barking and Dagenham Council claim there is no secrecy around the cameras, but have refused to disclose which schools are involved in the controversial scheme.

Council bosses have in the past vigorously defended pupils' identities and have even refused to name youngsters pictured in Recorder articles - yet questions are sure to be raised about the privacy and rights of pupils being caught on camera.
Despite contacting every school in the borough, the Recorder received no responses. We have therefore been forced to submit an application for the details under the Freedom of Information Act - the response to which will be due on Tuesday, January 23.

The revelations may panic parents worried about the tapes falling into the wrong hands.

Cllr Jeanne Alexander, executive member for children's services, admitted she was unaware of the situation, but said the decision was each school's alone to take.

She said: "It was the place where bullying happened when I was school, and schools have tried all sorts.

"It's down to the heads and governing bodies - our headteachers are sensible people. They wouldn't do this unless there was a problem. There must be a reason for it. CCTV is not cheap. Our schools are sensible and money is so tight.

"Also, pupils often break pipes and cause floods and they put toilet paper in the sinks.

"I think it's going to help. We have to take strong action on bullying.

"There'll be parent governors on the governing body so they should be keeping the other parents informed."

A Barking and Dagenham Council spokesman added: "We do have CCTV in certain school toilets, but we won't specify which schools for obvious reasons - we don't advertise the fact.

"But they are not in the cubicles and pupils will not be filmed in the cubicles.

"They are in various positions facing the wash basin areas.

"There's no secrecy around the cameras - most pupils know because it's for their own safety.

"We have them in primary and secondary schools. We don't want to say how many of the schools they're in. They're there for the safety and security of both pupils and staff.

"We're increasing what schools we have CCTV in. Eventually we want to have them in most schools.



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Lawyer "falls to death" at hotel

Herald Staff
27/12/2006

Police suspect Paul Sanford "committed suicide"

In what police describe as a "probable" suicide leap, a prominent Monterey Bay Area attorney fell at least nine floors to his death at the Embassy Suites Hotel Monterey Bay in Seaside the morning before Christmas.

Shortly before 9:30 a.m. Sunday, officers found the body of Aptos attorney Paul Sanford in the west end of the hotel lobby, where he had landed on a large ventilation grate. [...]

A passionate believer in "a dynamic Constitution," Sanford always carried a copy of the U.S. Constitution in his pocket, Mills said.

"He was a champion of the downtrodden, he represented homeless people in Santa Cruz, and fought for free speech," Mills said. "He did a run across America. You name it he's done it. This is a real shock and a loss to the community."

Mills said Sanford decided in recent years to add journalism to his many occupations.

Almost immediately, he caused a stir after he joined the White House Press Corps in 2005, making waves as the first reporter to ask then-White House press secretary Scott McClellan whether the leaking of CIA agent Valerie Plame's name might be considered an act of treason.

"There has been a lot of speculation concerning the meaning of the underlying statute and the grand jury investigation concerning Mr. Rove," Sanford asked. "The question is, have the legal counsel to the White House or White House staff reviewed the statute in sufficient specificity to determine whether a violation of that statute would, in effect, constitute treason?"

McClellan was apparently flustered by the question and replied that "those are matters for those overseeing the investigation to decide."
Police Capt. Steve Cercone said horrified guests were eating breakfast in the atrium at the time, and a number of witnesses saw Sanford fall from somewhere between the 9th and 12th floors.

"I'm at a loss for words," said Sanford's friend and business associate, Monterey attorney Shawn Mills. "Paul really had his fingers in a lot of different pies. He was from the East Coast, and I used to call him our 'West Coast Kennedy.'"

In addition to running his criminal defense practice in Capitola, Sanford was active in community organizations and hosted several independent radio shows in Santa Cruz and Monterey counties.

For several years, he was programs supervisor at the Volunteer Center in Santa Cruz and a teacher at the Monterey College of Law, where Mills said Sanford was an alumnus who mentored many students.

Sanford recently purchased his mother's home in Pebble Beach, and Mills said his friend planned to retire there one day.

Sanford was also active in the national arena. He appeared before the U.S. Supreme Court in 2004 beside Elk Grove resident Michael Newdow when he argued unsuccessfully that the words "under God" should be stricken from the Pledge of Allegiance.



The White House incident sparked controversy after Beltway bloggers incorrectly described Sanford as a reporter for the Air America radio network. At the time, he was associated with Watsonville radio station KOMY, an Air America affiliate, and Sanford told reporters he never claimed to work for Air America.

Sanford eventually filed suit against station owner Michael Zwerling after Zwerling was reported as saying Sanford had not been authorized to represent the station as a reporter, a statement Sanford refuted.

Mills represented Sanford in that suit, which was scheduled to begin in Santa Cruz County Superior Court in February. Mills said he did not know if the case will continue after Sanford's sudden death.

Although the dispute with Zwerling caused Sanford a great deal of stress at the time, Mills said his friend was feeling fine about it and believed he would soon be vindicated in court.

Sanford and Mills also have hosted the "Paul and Shawn Show" on Saturdays at Seaside radio station KRXA, where they covered last fall's election and interviewed former Salinas mayor and now Assemblywoman Anna Caballero, Pacific Grove Mayor Dan Cort and others.

In 2002, Sanford inadvertently found himself at the center of a controversy in Santa Cruz County when his independent election fundraising was characterized in the Santa Cruz Sentinel as last-minute "developer" contributions on behalf of supervisor candidate Mark Primack. Primack lost to incumbent Mardi Wormhoudt by fewer than 600 votes.

Friends and associates expressed disbelief at the news of Sanford's death and that it was ruled a suicide, saying Sanford seemed happy and had made many plans for this week and in coming months. Mills said he and Sanford recently decided to open a shared law office to serve Monterey and Santa Cruz counties, something Sanford was looking forward to doing.

He and Sanford spoke on the phone "around four or five times a day," Mills said, and the two had just spoken on Thursday, "tweaking a marketing plan" for their new law practice before Mills went out of town for the Christmas holiday.

"I just don't know what happened since Thursday. There was nothing on the horizon there to know this was going to happen," Mills said. "We were going to get together this week."

Mills said he had spoken to Sanford's wife, Paula, and that she also was in shock. He said Sanford, a father of two, was a devoted family man.

"This is a horrible thing for his family. He would never have intentionally put his family through that trauma. Something's not right, it doesn't make sense."

Police said that before Sanford fell, hotel housekeepers saw him pacing the hallway of an upper floor. Cercone said Sanford's car was parked next to the hotel, and he was not checked in as a guest.

Police declined to state exactly why they ruled the case a suicide.

Mills said he and Sanford often met at Chili's restaurant next to Embassy Suites Hotel Monterey Bay because the KRXA studio was nearby.

Mills said Sanford should be remembered for his volunteer work in the local community. "People don't like to work for free, and Paul worked for ideology. He didn't like the attention a lot. The attention he's going to get now would upset him."

Comment: As suggested in today's editorial by Kurt Nimmo, this was almost definitely a case of "state assisted suicide".

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Fortune Cookie

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China to strengthen military

Last Updated: Friday, December 29, 2006 | 12:59 AM ET
The Associated Press

China said Friday it will strengthen its military to thwart any attempt by Taiwan to push for independence, but vowed that it was committed to the peaceful development of the world's largest army.

A report issued by the State Council, China's Cabinet, also said the country's defense policy will focus on protecting its borders and sea space, cracking down on terrorism and modernizing its weapons.
"China will not engage in any arms race or pose a military threat to any other country," the 91-page white paper said.

"China is determined to remain a staunch force for global peace, security and stability."

The communist nation's 2.3 million-strong military is the world's largest but has been criticized for its lack of transparency about its buildup.

Its reported 2006 budget is $35 billion, but analysts believe the true figure, which doesn't include weapons purchases and other key items, is several times higher. By comparison, U.S. President George W. Bush has signed a bill authorizing $532 billion in defense spending for the 2007 fiscal year that began Oct. 1.

One of Beijing's key short-term goals has been to take a firm stand against any independence efforts by Taiwan, the self-ruled island that the communist mainland claims as part of its territory.

It has hundreds of missiles pointed in its direction across the Taiwan Straits.

China has also spent heavily to beef up its arsenal with submarines, jet fighters and other high-tech weapons.

"The struggle to oppose and contain the separatist forces for Taiwan independence and their activities remains a hard one," the report said.

It indirectly criticized the United States for promising Beijing that it will adhere to the "one-China" policy, "but it continues to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, and has strengthened military ties with Taiwan."

Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 but remains Taiwan's major foreign backer, and is committed by law to providing it weapons to defend itself against possible Chinese attack.

China has announced double-digit military spending increases nearly every year since the early 1990s, causing unease among its neighbors.

But despite its huge size, its forces are said to lag well behind those of other major countries. In recent years, leaders have focused on improved training and advanced technology, hoping to close that gap.

"This increase...is compensatory in nature, and is designed to enhance the originally weak defense foundation," the white paper said. "It is a moderate increase in step with China's national economic development."

It said the Army is speeding up upgrades of battle equipment while the Navy is building up its weaponry and troops. The Air Force is giving priority to the development of new fighters as well as air and missile defense weapons, it said. No details were given.



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U.S. Embassy Is Warning Beijing on Iran Gas Deal

By ELI LAKE
Staff Reporter of the Sun
December 28, 2006

The Bush administration and Congress are warning that a proposed $16 billion deal between a Chinese company and Iran could trigger economic penalties under an American law aimed at starving Iran of funding for terrorism and nuclear weapons.

Officials at the American embassy in China delivered a demarche Saturday in Beijing. They demanded an explanation of the deal from Chinese government officials and warned them that it could trigger a 1996 law, the Iran Libya Sanctions Act. The law prohibits foreign firms that invest more than $10 million in Iran's energy sector from raising capital in American financial markets.
The Democrat from California who will take over next week as chairman of the House International Relations Committee, Tom Lantos, said his panel will "closely examine" the deal next week to see if the sanctions would apply. The ranking Republican on that committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a Republican from Florida, said she will also be looking closely at the deal.

The Chinese company involved in the deal, the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC, is state controlled but has some independent directors, including a former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia. It is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The company attracted American press attention in 2005, when it launched a $18.5 billion bid for the American oil company Unocal that it eventually withdrew amid congressional opposition.

The deal with Iran will test the effectiveness of the recently reauthorized Iran Libya Sanctions Act, which was originally championed by a senator from New York, Alfonse D'Amato. The deal also poses a direct challenge to America's financial war against Iran. For the past year, the Treasury Department has discreetly pressured Japanese and European banks to divest from Iran and end their relations with Iranian companies and banks, warning that such deals could risk the banks' own access to American financial markets.

Because the Iran- China deal was announced on December 22, only a day before the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved new sanctions against Iran's nuclear program, it also signaled China's willingness to soften any economic blow to the new sanctions would inflict on Iran. Others say that the China- Iran deal is driven on the Chinese side not by geopolitical considerations but strictly by economics, as China struggles to find affordable energy to support its booming economic growth.

Yesterday, a State Department official who requested anonymity said Foggy Bottom was trying to determine whether the deal with CNOOC is to purchase liquefied gas or whether it would actually entail CNOOC's investment in new facilities in Iran to liquefy the natural gas for export.

"Obviously, if this would involve some investment in gas liquefication facilities - we don't know that it does - then that would be a violation of the Iran Libya Sanctions Act. A strict purchase raises political concerns, but not legal concerns," the official said. When asked about those political concerns, the official said, "It would mean the Iranians would have another $16 billion for international terrorism and to pursue weapons programs."

Lawmakers were similarly blunt in warning of the consequences of the deal. Mr. Lantos said, "When the Congress convenes next week, the International Relations Committee will closely examine the reported $16 Billion Memorandum of Understanding China's state-owned oil company signed with Iran to develop Iranian gas fields." He added that his committee would specifically examine whether the deal would trigger penalties envisioned under the new Iran sanctions law. " China needs to be warned of the serious penalties it may incur if it pursues implementation of this agreement," he said.

Ms. Ros-Lehtinen said she would examine whether the deal would trigger penalties. "If this investment is confirmed, I will seek to ensure that this Chinese entity is penalized to the fullest extent. Chinese entities have a nefarious history of providing critical assistance to rogue regimes for their missile and unconventional weapons programs, and China also provides an economic lifeline to these threats to global peace and security," she said. "As such, we must carefully review any activity that would indirectly benefit or reward Chinese rogue clients like Iran and Syria."

Despite the tough talk, there is no precedent for enforcing the ten-year-old secondary sanctions that are on the books for foreign investments in Iran's energy sector. When Russia's Gazprom, France's Total and Malaysia's Petronas companies signed a $2 billion deal to develop Iran's South Pars gas field in 1997, the Clinton administration waived any sanctions required by law.

The deputy director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Affairs, Patrick Clawson, said yesterday that it was unclear whether the Chinese government had approved the deal CNOOC announced last week, noting that Chinese companies in the past have pursued investments without checking with Beijing. But he added that if the deal was approved by the Chinese foreign ministry, it would hurt American efforts to present effective disincentives to Iran for its nuclear program.

"If in fact Chinese companies are prepared to make major investments in Iran, it is going to be more difficult for America to achieve its goals to pressure Iran on weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems," Mr. Clawson said.

The president of the Center for Security Policy, Frank Gaffney, said he was not holding out hope that any government sanctions would be applied to CNOOC. "The president keeps waiving the sanctions on foreign firms," he said. "We have come up with as an alternative approach. Americans investing in companies like CNOOC ought to divest from those companies if they are doing business with our enemies. This is not only inconsistent with the investor's moral values, but inconsistent with the national interest and a fiduciary risk."

One investor in CNOOC is the New York City retirement fund, which owns more than $8 million worth of CNOOC stock. Yesterday, a spokeswoman for New York City comptroller William Thompson said the comptroller's office is looking into those holdings.

The New York State Common Retirement Fund directly owned $5.2 million worth of CNOOC Ltd. as of March 31, according to the fund's annual report.



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Japan Passes Landmark Patriotism Laws

Washington Post
December 15, 2006

TOKYO, -- Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government on Friday successfully pushed through landmark laws requiring Japanese schools to encourage patriotism in the classroom and elevating the Defense Agency to the status of a full ministry for the first time since World War II.
Both measures are considered cornerstones of Abe's conservative agenda to bolster Japan's military status and rebuild national pride in a country that had long associated patriotism with its imperialist past. The legislation cleared the upper house of parliament on Friday after winning approval in the lower house last month and will come into effect early next year.

Abe, Japan's first prime minister born after World War II, had made education reform a key issue during his campaign to succeed Junichiro Koizumi in September. His bid to restore patriotism in schools has drawn harsh criticism from Japanese pacifists, who have argued that such a law echoes the state-sponsored indoctrination of children practiced by Japan's past military leaders.

But Abe and other proponents have countered that a renewed embrace of patriotism is an essential step forward for Japan as it gradually emerges from a decades-long sense of guilt over World War II. In recent years, for instance, local municipalities have begun enforcing laws requiring the national anthem to be sung and the Japanese flag flown at certain school ceremonies, despite objections from teachers unions, which remain one of the last bastions of pacifism in Japan.

The education reform law is likely to dramatically increase the number of schools using revisionist textbooks that have been heralded by conservatives here but decried by Japan's wartime victims -- particularly China and South Korea -- as whitewashing its past aggression. Such books, for instance, omit reference to "comfort women," a euphemism for the thousands of Asian women forced into sexual bondage by the Japanese military during the 1930s and 1940s.

"The revision bears the historic significance of clearly showing the fundamental idea of education for a new era," Abe said in a statement lauding the law's passage.

Also approved were a key set of bills upgrading Japan's Defense Agency -- created in 1954 following the end of the American occupation of Japan -- to the status of a full ministry. The move affords greater clout to defense officials in national policymaking and budget decisions, something long considered taboo here in the decades following the war.

The primary mission of Japan's Self Defense Forces -- whose role had long been strictly defined as defense of the home islands -- will now be expanded to include overseas peacekeeping missions. Japan dispatched non-combat troops to Iraq from 2004 until earlier this year, but did so only after Koizumi won special authority from parliament.

The elevation to ministry status also paves the way for the passage of more specific laws that would give Japan greater flexibility to dispatch its forces to international hot spots. More importantly, it could open the door for a larger measure of logistical support by Japan in the event of a regional conflict. Such a move could change the balance of power in East Asia, empowering Tokyo, for instance, to assist the United States in the defense of Taiwan in the event of Chinese aggression. But officials here say it may yet take years before bills that would explicitly permit such actions are drafted and submitted to parliament.

Nevertheless, the upgrading of the defense agency underscores the increasing role of the military establishment in Japan, a nation that, under its pacifist constitution drafted by the United States following World War II, renounced the right to use force to settle international disputes. Japan has largely relied on its security alliance with the United States, which keeps some 50,000 troops in Japan, for deterrence.

But with concerns growing about regional security, particularly as a result of North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons, Japan has begun to shed its pacifist shell. Abe has called for the full redrafting of a new constitution that would allow Japan to officially possess a flexible military again.



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S. Korea Report Calls N. Korea a Threat

By KWANG-TAE KIM
Associated Press
29 Dec 06

South Korea's Defense Ministry said North Korea is believed to have about 110 pounds of plutonium, enough to produce up to seven nuclear weapons.

In its biennial defense report, released Friday, the ministry also said the North is believed to be capable of producing biological weapons, including anthrax weapons, and possesses up to 5,000 tons of toxic agents.
The report described North Korea "as a serious threat, considering the serious nature of its nuclear test and threat of weapons of mass destruction," the ministry said in a statement.

North Korea stoked regional tensions in October when it conducted its first nuclear test, drawing U.N. sanctions and global condemnation.

Last year North Korea pledged to dismantle its nuclear program in exchange for security guarantees and aid. No progress has been made in implementing the agreement because of North Korea's objections to U.S. financial restrictions imposed on the communist regime for its alleged money laundering and counterfeiting.

During nuclear talks last week, North Korea continued to insist that the U.S. lift the sanctions before it would move ahead on dismantling its nuclear program.

The report said North Korea has the capability to launch a surprise attack on South Korea without repositioning its troops because it deploys about 70 percent of its ground forces south of the capital, Pyongyang.

North Korea "is consistently preparing for war for a long period and is likely to keep this military policy in the future," the report said.

North Korea often accuses South Korea of conspiring with the U.S. to attack it, an accusation denied by Washington.

South Korea is trying to strengthen its defense capability as it prepares to regain wartime operational control of its forces, which have been under the command of U.S.-led U.N. forces since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Seoul regained peacetime control of its troops in 1994, but the U.S. is still supposed to control South Korean forces if a war breaks out. South Korea and the U.S. agreed in October that Seoul will retake control of its troops sometime between 2009 and 2012.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, who has pursued a foreign policy that is less dependent on Washington, called for the transfer of command, saying the move is long overdue.

About 29,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea as a deterrent against the North. The presence of the troops is a legacy of the Korean War, which ended in a cease-fire rather than a peace treaty.



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China defends military rise, says faces threats

By Ben Blanchard
Reuters
29 Dec 06

BEIJING - China's military modernization will focus on strengthening its navy and air force as it faces security threats from border spats, historical disputes and self-ruled Taiwan, a defense white paper released on Friday said.

But China, whose increasing defense spending and military build-up has been a source of friction with the United States, will never engage in an arms race or threaten any other nation, the policy paper said.

"The navy will gradually ... raise its marine combat and nuclear counter-attack capabilities," it said.
"The air force aims at speeding up its transition from territorial air defense to both offensive and defensive operations, and increasing its capabilities in the areas of air strike, air and missile defense, early warning and reconnaissance and strategic projection."

President Hu Jintao this week urged the building of a powerful Chinese navy that was prepared "at any time" for combat.

The report also defended China's rising military spending, pointing out that it spends less per capita than the United States, Britain, France or Russia and saying it was committed to peaceful development.

Describing China's general security situation as good, the 83-page document nonetheless wasted little time in denouncing Taiwan independence moves, saying the island over which Beijing claims sovereignty was a serious threat to regional stability.

"The struggle to oppose and control 'Taiwan independence' splittist forces and their activities is complex and grim," it said.

China and Taiwan have faced off since 1949 when Nationalist forces fled to the island after losing the Chinese civil war to the Communists.

Liu Te-shun, vice chairman of Taiwan's policy-making Mainland Affairs Council, said the release of the white paper raised China's military threat toward Taiwan and cast a cloud over the normalization of cross-strait ties.

"China's 2006 defense white paper still deliberately avoids the world's misgivings about its expanded military and the truthfulness of the increase of its national defense budget," Liu told a news conference in Taipei on Friday.

"It will only increase suspicion among the international community about the rise of China," he said.

Analysts said the report reflected China's primary goal of deterring both Taiwan independence and the prospect of U.S. intervention in the Taiwan Strait.

"China does not want to develop ... the kind of power projection capability that would match the United States in the long term," said Li Mingjiang, an assistant professor at the Singapore Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies.

"Its specific focus is on Taiwan, on the worst-case scenario for Taiwan moving toward independence, then declaring independence and U.S. intervention," he said.

The report also said China was facing threats from other, unnamed neighbors. "The issues of border complexities and sensitive historical problems still have an effect on China's security environment," it said.

China has fought brief border wars with India, Vietnam and the former Soviet Union, and continues to dispute the ownership of islets in the South China Sea with Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.

China also remains wary of Japan, which occupied parts of the country between 1931 and 1945 and which called on Beijing earlier this year to be more open about its military.

Japan's Kyodo news agency said on Friday that Tokyo held a joint navy exercise with Washington for the first time last month under the assumption that China had invaded the disputed Senkaku islands -- known as Diaoyus in China -- in the East China Sea.

The report also defended the rise in China's defense expenditure, officially projected to be some $36 billion in 2006, up about 15 percent from the previous year. Many foreign experts believe the real figure is significantly higher.

"This increase is to compensate for topping up basic defense weaknesses," it said.

(Additional reporting by Guo Shipeng and Lindsay Beck in Beijing, Lee Chyen Yee in Taipei and Chisa Fujioka in Tokyo)

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.



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I-Racket

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Top Ten Iraq Myths for 2006

By Juan Cole
Informed Comment
December 29, 2006

1. Myth number one is that the United States "can still win" in Iraq. Of course, the truth of this statement, frequently still made by William Kristol and other Neoconservatives, depends on what "winning" means. But if it means the establishment of a stable, pro-American, anti-Iranian government with an effective and even-handed army and police force in the near or even medium term, then the assertion is frankly ridiculous.
The Iraqi "government" is barely functioning. The parliament was not able to meet in December because it could not attain a quorum. Many key Iraqi politicians live most of the time in London, and much of parliament is frequently abroad. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki does not control large swathes of the country, and could give few orders that had any chance of being obeyed. The US military cannot shore up this government, even with an extra division, because the government is divided against itself. Most of the major parties trying to craft legislation are also linked to militias on the streets who are killing one another. It is over with. Iraq is in for years of heavy political violence of a sort that no foreign military force can hope to stop.

The United States cannot "win" in the sense defined above. It cannot. And the blindly arrogant assumption that it can win is calculated to get more tens of thousands of Iraqis killed and more thousands of American soldiers and Marines badly wounded or killed. Moreover, since Iraq is coming apart at the seams under the impact of our presence there, there is a real danger that we will radically destabilize it and the whole oil-producing Gulf if we try to stay longer.

2. "US military sweeps of neighborhoods can drive the guerrillas out." The US put an extra 15,000 men into Baghdad this past summer, aiming to crush the guerrillas and stop the violence in the capital, and the number of attacks actually increased. This result comes about in part because the guerrillas are not outsiders who come in and then are forced out. The Sunni Arabs of Ghazaliya and Dora districts in the capital are the "insurgents." The US military cannot defeat the Sunni Arab guerrilla movement or "insurgency" with less than 500,000 troops, based on what we have seen in the Balkans and other such conflict situations. The US destroyed Falluja, and even it and other cities of al-Anbar province are not now safe! The US military leaders on the ground have spoken of the desirability of just withdrawing from al-Anbar to Baghdad and giving up on it. In 2003, 14 percent of Sunni Arabs thought it legitimate to attack US personnel and facilities. In August, 2006, over 70 percent did. How long before it is 100%? Winning guerrilla wars requires two victories, a military victory over the guerrillas and a winning of the hearts and minds of the general public, thus denying the guerrillas support. The US has not and is unlikely to be able to repress the guerrillas, and it is losing hearts and minds at an increasing and alarming rate. They hate us, folks. They don't want us there.

3. The United States is best off throwing all its support behind the Iraqi Shiites. This is the position adopted fairly consistently by Marc Reuel Gerecht. Gerecht is an informed and acute observer whose views I respect even when I disagree with them. But Washington policy-makers should read Daniel Goleman's work on social intelligence. Goleman points out that a good manager of a team in a corporation sets up a win/win framework for every member of the team. If you set it up on a win/lose basis, so that some are actively punished and others "triumph," you are asking for trouble. Conflict is natural. How you manage conflict is what matters. If you listen to employees' grievances and try to figure out how they can be resolved in such a way that everyone benefits, then you are a good manager.

Gerecht, it seems to me, sets up a win/lose model in Iraq. The Shiites and Kurds win it all, and the Sunni Arabs get screwed over. Practically speaking, the Bush policy has been Gerechtian, which in my view has caused all the problems. We shouldn't have thought of our goal as installing the Shiites in power. Of course, Bush hoped that those so installed would be "secular," and that is what Wolfowitz and Chalabi had promised him. Gerecht came up with the ex post facto justification that even the religious Shiites are moving toward democracy via Sistani. But democracy cannot be about one sectarian identity prevailing over, and marginalizing others.

The Sunni Arabs have demonstrated conclusively that they can act effectively as spoilers in the new Iraq. If they aren't happy, no one is going to be. The US must negotiate with the guerrilla leaders and find a win/win framework for them to come in from the cold and work alongside the Kurds and the religious Shiites. About this, US Ambassador in Baghdad Zalmay Khalilzad has been absolutely right.

4. "Iraq is not in a civil war," as Jurassic conservative Fox commentator Bill O'Reilly insists. There is a well-established social science definition of civil war put forward by Professor J. David Singer and his colleagues: "Sustained military combat, primarily internal, resulting in at least 1,000 battle-deaths per year, pitting central government forces against an insurgent force capable of effective resistance, determined by the latter's ability to inflict upon the government forces at least 5 percent of the fatalities that the insurgents sustain." (Errol A. Henderson and J. David Singer, "Civil War in the Post-Colonial World, 1946-92," Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 37, No. 3, May 2000.)" See my article on this in Salon.com. By Singer's definition, Iraq has been in civil war since the Iraqi government was reestablished in summer of 2004. When I have been around political scientists, as at the ISA conference, I have found that scholars in that field tend to accept Singer's definition.

5. "The second Lancet study showing 600,000 excess deaths from political and criminal violence since the US invasion is somehow flawed." Les Roberts replies here to many of the objections that were raised. See also the transcript of the Kucinich-Paul Congressional hearings on the subject. Many critics refer to the numbers of dead reported in the press as counter-arguments to Roberts et al. But "passive reporting" such as news articles never captures more than a fraction of the casualties in any war. I see deaths reported in the Arabic press all the time that never show up in the English language wire services. And, a lot of towns in Iraq don't have local newspapers and many local deaths are not reported in the national newspapers.

6. "Most deaths in Iraq are from bombings." The Lancet study found that the majority of violent deaths are from being shot.

7. "Baghdad and environs are especially violent but the death rate is lower in the rest of the country." The Lancet survey found that levels of violence in the rest of the country are similar to that in Baghdad (remember that the authors included criminal activities such as gang and smuggler turf wars in their statistics). The Shiite south is spared much Sunni-Shiite communal fighting, but criminal gangs, tribal feuds, and militias fight one another over oil and antiquities smuggling, and a lot of people are getting shot down there, too.

8. "Iraq is the central front in the war on terror." From the beginning of history until 2003 there had never been a suicide bombing in Iraq. There was no al-Qaeda in Baath-ruled Iraq. When Baath intelligence heard that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi might have entered Iraq, they grew alarmed at such an "al-Qaeda" presence and put out an APB on him! Zarqawi's so-called "al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia" was never "central" in Iraq and was never responsible for more than a fraction of the violent attacks. This assertion is supported by the outcome of a US-Jordanian operation that killed Zarqawi this year. His death had no impact whatsoever on the level of violence. There are probably only about 1,000 foreign fighters even in Iraq, and most of them are first-time volunteers, not old-time terrorists. The 50 major guerrilla cells in Sunni Arab Iraq are mostly made up of Iraqis, and are mainly: 1) Baathist or neo-Baathist, 2) Sunni revivalist or Salafi, 3) tribally-based, or 4) based in city quarters. Al-Qaeda is mainly a boogey man, invoked in Iraq on all sides, but possessing little real power or presence there. This is not to deny that radical Sunni Arab volunteers come to Iraq to blow things (and often themselves) up. They just are not more than an auxiliary to the big movements, which are Iraqi.

9. "The Sunni Arab guerrillas in places like Ramadi will follow the US home to the American mainland and commit terrorism if we leave Iraq." This assertion is just a variation on the invalid domino theory. People in Ramadi only have one beef with the United States. Its troops are going through their wives' underwear in the course of house searches every day. They don't want the US troops in their town or their homes, dictating to them that they must live under a government of Shiite clerics and Kurdish warlords (as they think of them). If the US withdrew and let the Iraqis work out a way to live with one another, people in Ramadi will be happy. They are not going to start taking flight lessons and trying to get visas to the US. This argument about following us, if it were true, would have prevented us from ever withdrawing from anyplace once we entered a war there. We'd be forever stuck in the Philippines for fear that Filipino terrorists would follow us back home. Or Korea (we moved 15,000 US troops out of South Korea not so long ago. Was that unwise? Are the thereby liberated Koreans now gunning for us?) Or how about the Dominican Republic? Haiti? Grenada? France? The argument is a crock.

10. "Setting a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq is a bad idea." Bush and others in his administration have argued that setting such a timetable would give a significant military advantage to the guerrillas fighting US forces and opposed to the new government. That assertion makes sense only if there were a prospect that the US could militarily crush the Sunni Arabs. There is no such prospect. The guerrilla war is hotter now than at any time since the US invasion. It is more widely supported by more Sunni Arabs than ever before. It is producing more violent attacks than ever before. Since we cannot defeat them short of genocide, we have to negotiate with them. And their first and most urgent demand is that the US set a timetable for withdrawal before they will consider coming into the new political system. That is, we should set a timetable in order to turn the Sunni guerrillas from combatants to a political negotiating partner. Even Sunni politicians cooperating with the US make this demand. They are disappointed with the lack of movement on the issue. How long do they remain willing to cooperate? In addition, 131 Iraqi members of parliament signed a demand that the US set a timetable for withdrawal. (138 would be a simple majority.) It is a a major demand of the Sadr Movement. In fact, the 32 Sadrist MPs withdrew from the ruling United Iraqi Alliance coalition temporarily over this issue.

In my view, Shiite leaders such as Abdul Aziz al-Hakim are repeatedly declining to negotiate in good faith with the Sunni Arabs or to take their views seriously. Al-Hakim knows that if the Sunnis give him any trouble, he can sic the Marines on them. The US presence is making it harder for Iraqi to compromise with Iraqi, which is counterproductive.

Think Progress points out that in 1999, Governor George W. Bush criticized then President Clinton for declining to set a withdrawal timetable for Kosovo, saying "Victory means exit strategy, and it's important for the president to explain to us what the exit strategy is."

Juan Cole is a professor of history at the University of Michigan and maintains the popular blog Informed Comment.



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Many soldiers say troop surge a bad idea

By WILL WEISSERT
Associated Press

BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) -- Many of the American soldiers trying to quell sectarian killings in Baghdad don't appear to be looking for reinforcements. They say the temporary surge in troop levels some people are calling for is a bad idea.

President Bush is considering increasing the number of troops in Iraq and embedding more U.S. advisers in Iraqi units. White House advisers have indicated Bush will announce his new plan for the war before his State of the Union address Jan. 23.

In dozens of interviews with soldiers of the Army's 5th Battalion, 20th Infantry Regiment as they patrolled the streets of eastern Baghdad, many said the Iraqi capital is embroiled in civil warfare between majority Shiite Muslims and Sunni Arabs that no number of American troops can stop.
Others insisted current troop levels are sufficient and said any increase in U.S. presence should focus on training Iraqi forces, not combat.

But their more troubling worry was that dispatching a new wave of soldiers would result in more U.S. casualties, and some questioned whether an increasingly muddled American mission in Baghdad is worth putting more lives on the line.

Spc. Don Roberts, who was stationed in Baghdad in 2004, said the situation had gotten worse because of increasing violence between Shiites and Sunnis.

"I don't know what could help at this point," said Roberts, 22, of Paonia, Colo. "What would more guys do? We can't pick sides. It's almost like we have to watch them kill each other, then ask questions."

Based in Fort Lewis, Wash., the battalion is part of the 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team of the 2nd Infantry Division. Deployed in June, its men were moved to Baghdad from Mosul in late November to relieve another Stryker battalion that had reached the end of its tour.

"Nothing's going to help. It's a religious war, and we're caught in the middle of it," said Sgt. Josh Keim, a native of Canton, Ohio, who is on his second tour in Iraq. "It's hard to be somewhere where there's no mission and we just drive around."

Capt. Matt James, commander of the battalion's Company B, was careful in how he described the unit's impact since arriving in Baghdad.

"The idea in calling us in was to make things better here, but it's very complicated and complex," he said.

But James said more troops in combat would likely not have the desired effect.

"The more guys we have training the Iraqi army the better," he said. "I would like to see a surge there."

During a recent interview, Lt. Gen. Nasier Abadi, deputy chief of staff for the Iraqi army, said that instead of sending more U.S. soldiers, Washington should focus on furnishing his men with better equipment.

"We are hoping 2007 will be the year of supplies," he said.

Some in the 5th Battalion don't think training will ever get the Iraqi forces up to American standards.

"They're never going to be as effective as us," said 1st Lt. Sean McCaffrey, 24, of Shelton, Conn. "They don't have enough training or equipment or expertise."

McCaffrey does support a temporary surge in troop numbers, however, arguing that flooding Baghdad with more soldiers could "crush enemy forces all over the city instead of just pushing them from one area to another."

Pfc. Richard Grieco said it's hard to see how daily missions in Baghdad make a difference.

"If there's a plan to sweep through Baghdad and clear it, (more troops) could make a difference," said the 19-year-old from Slidell, La. "But if we just dump troops in here like we've been doing, it's just going to make for more targets."

Sgt. James Simons, 24, of Tacoma, Wash., said Baghdad is so dangerous that U.S. forces spend much of their time in combat instead of training Iraqis.

"Baghdad is still like it was at the start of the war. We still have to knock out insurgents because things are too dangerous for us to train the Iraqis," he said.

Staff Sgt. Anthony Handly disagreed, saying Baghdad has made improvements many Americans aren't aware of.

"People think everything is so bad and so violent, but it's really not," said Handly, 30, of Bellingham, Wash. "A lot of people are getting jobs they didn't have before and they're doing it on their own. We just provide a stabilizing effect."

Staff Sgt. Lee Knapp, 28, of Mobile, Ala., also supported a temporary troop surge, saying it could keep morale up by reducing the need to extend units past the Army's standard tour of one year in Iraq.

"It could help alleviate some stress on the smaller units," he said. "It could help Baghdad, but things are already getting better."

Sgt. Justin Thompson, a San Antonio native, said he signed up for delayed enlistment before the Sept. 11 terror attacks, then was forced to go to a war he didn't agree with.

A troop surge is "not going to stop the hatred between Shia and Sunni," said Thompson, who is especially bitter because his 4-year contract was involuntarily extended in June. "This is a civil war, and we're just making things worse. We're losing. I'm not afraid to say it."

© 2006 The Associated Press.



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Prominent cleric warns against West's plot to divide Shia-Sunni

Tehran, Dec 29, IRNA

Tehran's Substitute Friday prayers leader Ayatollah Emami Kashani warned Muslims against plots made by the West to sow discord among the Shia and Sunni.

"The enemy is preparing a massive plan for the Islamic world and for the entire region," said the cleric addressing the worshipers at Tehran University campus.
He stressed that after the Western states were obliged to admit the defeat of their policies in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan, they have decided to set up new plans.

"Shia-Sunni division is a dirty lesson taught by the world arrogance in Muslim countries," Ayatollah Kashani said regretting that the lesson was used by some of the Muslim states.

The cleric urged Muslims countries to stay united and close their ranks further in order "to disappoint enemies of the Islamic world." Referring to adoption of the anti-Iran Resolution 1737 by the United Nations Security Council, the ayatollah said that West has "falsely portrayed Iran as a country which threatens international security by developing nuclear weapons."

"Those who produce atomic arms and kill other human beings by giving such arms to other countries are now accusing Iran of developing nuclear weapons," Ayatollah Kashani said.

He added that the West was to question Iran's political and economic place by introducing it as threat to the world security.

"Iran is committed to its international obligations and favors negotiations," said the cleric reassuring that Tehran was not pursuing any program to develop nuclear arms.

However, he stressed, Iranian nation would not give up its efforts to achieve its scientific goals.

Stressing that the issue of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities was politicized, the cleric said "it is now considered as a cold war."



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Iran ready for comprehensive assistance to Iraqi nation - Rafsanjani

Tehran, Dec 27, IRNA

Expediency Council Head Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani said here Wednesday Iran is ready for offering any kind of assistance to Iraqi nation, Expecting nothing in return.

The newly re-elected IRI Leadership Experts Assembly member made the comment in a meeting with visiting Iraqi Treasure Minister Baqer Bayan Jabr al-Zubaidi, adding, "Under favorable conditions for cooperation, Tehran can fulfill requirements of the Iraqi nation, particularly in service sector."
Rafsanjani pointed out that strengthening Tehran-Baghdad economic ties can save both nations' interests, adding, "Lingering insecurity in Iraq is an obstacle in the way for your country's development and advancement."
He added, "Restoration of peace and stability in Iraq is possible relying on effective assistance of Iraq's neighbors and the evacuation of the occupiers, so that the entire region would enjoy security once again."

Rafsanjani described the Iraqi nation's movement towards taking the lead of their destiny as "fruitful", adding, "Unity of the Iraqi nation is an effective factor in their growth and blossoming." The Iraqi Treasure Minister, too, during the meeting said that expansion of economic ties between the two nations is a good beginning for the expansion of comprehensive cooperation, adding, "Construction is the Iraqi nation's need of the day."

Al-Zubaidi added, "We would try to proceed on that path through the establishment of peace and stability."

He said that detainment of the Iranian guests of the Iraqi President by US forces is an undiplomatic move, adding, "The Iraqi officials would do their best to settle the unfortunate incidence as soon as possible.



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Katrina Kapers

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Seven US cops indicted in post-Katrina shooting deaths

Associated Press
29 Dec 06

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana - A New Orleans grand jury on Thursday indicted seven police officers of murder and attempted murder in two shooting deaths last year during the violent aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

In the September 4, 2005, incident, police responding to a report of gunfire confronted two families on a bridge and opened fire, killing two people and wounding four others.

One of the fatalities was mentally handicapped Ronald Madison.
The officers encountered the Bartholomew family at the base of the Danziger Bridge and the Madison family near the top of the bridge, Orleans Parish District Attorney Eddie Jordan said in a news release.

"These officers shot and killed two people and critically wounded four people," Jordan added.

After the shooting Ronald Madison's brother, Lance, was arrested and charged with numerous offenses including attempted murder, but the grand jury refused to indict Madison for any crime.

After devastating floods triggered by Katrina in August-September 2005 forced tens of thousands of people from their homes, the streets of New Orleans became a lawless haven for looters, criminals, rogue cops and armed civilians intent on protecting their property.

The incident on Danziger Bridge drew attention to the lack of control and confusion prevalent among the few law enforcement officers who stayed behind in the crippled city.

"We cannot allow our police officers to shoot and kill our citizens without justification like rabid dogs. The rules governing the use of lethal force are not suspended during a state of emergency. Everyone, including police officers, must abide by the law of the land," Jordan said.



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Katrina: Tale of Two Sisters

By Bill Quigley.
12/28/06 "ICH'

Gloria Williams and her twin sister Bobbie Jennings are 60 years old. They are two of the over 4000 families who lived in public housing in New Orleans before Katrina struck who are still locked out of their apartments since Katrina. Their apartments are two of 4534 apartments that the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has announced plans to demolish. Demolition is planned even though it will cost more to demolish and rebuild many fewer units than it does to fix them up and open them. Ms. Williams and Ms. Jennings, and thousands of families like them, are fighting HUD, they want to return.
Gloria and Bobbie started working early. As children they picked cotton, strawberries, snap beans and pecans before and after grade school every day in rural Louisiana. "We were raised up to work," they said.

They moved to New Orleans after their father drowned. Their home was marked by regular domestic violence. A few years later, their mother was murdered by a boyfriend.

As teens they moved in with an abusive relative. They ran away, came back, and stayed with other relatives. They can even remember nights when they slept under their aunt's bed in a hospital while waiting for her to recuperate.

As young women they continued working. They worked in restaurants before starting careers as Certified Nursing Assistants. Then they worked for years in nursing homes and in private homes caring for the elderly and disabled. They fed people, cleaned people, bathed people, cared for people. Each married and raised children and grandchildren. Like 25% of the households in New Orleans, neither owned a car.

Both sisters are now 60. In the past few years, their years of physical work took its toil and they could not longer work. Ms. Jennings had back surgery and suffers with high blood pressure. Ms. Williams has heart and lung problems, high blood pressure, and clots in her legs that prevent her from standing or walking for long periods. Each lives solely on about $600 a month from disability. No pensions.

When Katrina hit, they had been living in the C.J. Peete apartments for years. Ms. Bobbie Jennings had been there for 34 years. Her twin sister, Ms. Gloria Williams lived there for over 18 years.

Their combined families, 18 in all, evacuated to Baton Rouge to ride out the storm. When it was clear they would not be going home any time soon, their host family told them it was time to move on. In September 2005, the family of 18 moved into one daughter's damaged home in Slidell, about 30 miles away from New Orleans - all sleeping on the first floor because the roof was still damaged.

One of their sisters, Annie, was in the hospital with cancer when Katrina hit. It took the family weeks before the finally found her in a hospital in Macon, Georgia.

When the city opened, they got rides into town and checked on their apartments. No water had entered their apartments at all. But their doors had been kicked down and all their furnishings were gone. The housing authority told them they could not move back in for a couple more months while their apartments were secured and fixed up. The housing authority started fixing up and painting apartments in her complex, but abruptly stopped after a few weeks.

Slidell was getting tight, so they accepted an offer to relocate to California. After a month, they returned. Being 3000 miles apart from family was too heartbreaking. A four day bus ride brought them back to Slidell in January 2006. After hitching rides into New Orleans, Ms. Williams found a subsidized apartment. The only way the landlord would accept her, though, was if she paid him an extra $400 under the table. Otherwise, he would rent it to someone else who would.

So Ms. Williams paid the extra money and moved in with her grandchildren while she waited for her old apartment to reopen. She used FEMA money to buy new furniture.

In late February 2005, Ms. Williams was hospitalized for three weeks for surgeries on her legs.

In June 2005, HUD announced they were not going to let any residents back in her apartment complex and three others (Lafitte, St. Bernard and BW Cooper) because they were going to be demolished. Over one hundred maintenance and security workers for the housing authority were let go. HUD took over the local housing authority years ago and all these decisions are being made in Washington DC.

The demolished buildings would make way for much newer and many fewer apartments which would be built by private developers. The demolition and private development would be financed by federal funds and federal tax breaks designed to help Katrina victims!

Nearly $100 million in Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds were designated for the private developers. Another $34 million in Katrina Go-Zone tax credits were also donated to the developers.

In July 2005, Ms. Williams apartment caught fire and again she lost everything. Her landlord did not want to let her out of her lease. He told her that she and her grandson could still live there, all they had to do was clean the soot off the walls and ceilings.

At this, Ms. Williams broke down and went back into the hospital.

Ms. Jennings got an apartment and allowed her daughter and her grandchildren to live there because they have no place to stay. She also took her in her little sister, Annie, who was dying of cancer. Annie died on August 17, 2005.

Both sisters have severe problems every month making ends meet. Utility bills eat up most of their monthly checks. With no car and their apartments across the river from New Orleans, they cannot get to the doctor.

Christmas was very tough. Ms. Williams said "We didn't have a Christmas. We didn't have food to put on the table." Her grandson went to her sister's house to get a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

Ms. Jennings cried as she said "Behind Katrina and my little sister dying, my life just stopped. This is the second year we didn't have a Christmas. It is so hard to try to start over. I let my daughter and her two grandchildren sleep on the bed. I sleep on a pallet on the floor. Before Katrina I was on blood pressure medicine once a day. Now I take 4 blood pressure pills three times a day. I also take pills for depression, nerves and stress."

"We just want to go home," Ms. Williams said. "People knew us in our neighborhood. They never messed with us. I could leave my back door open when I went to the grocery. People don't understand that was our home. We want to go home."

Why would people want to go back into public housing? Aren't the developments dangerous and crime-ridden? Isn't this an opportunity to start over and make something better?

Public housing residents know full well the problems of public housing, but still they want to return.

Why? Start with the fact that New Orleans is in the worst affordable housing crisis since the Civil War. Tens of thousands of houses still remain in ruins after Katrina. Rents for the rest have gone up 70-80 percent since Katrina. Even before Katrina, there was a waiting list of 18,000 families seeking to get into public housing - now it is much, much worse.

HUD's demolition plans target 4,534 apartments of public housing in the community. They plan to demolish 1546 apartments in BW Cooper, 723 in C.J. Peete, 1400 in St. Bernard, and 865 in Lafitte.

These are not the dense high-rise towers. Public housing in New Orleans is made up of development clusters of mostly two and three story buildings with six to eight apartments in each.

New York Times Architecture critic Nicolai Ouroussoff, criticized plans to demolish these apartments, saying on November 19, 2006: "Modestly scaled, they include some of the best public housing built in the United States....Solidly built, the buildings' detailed brickwork, tile roofs and wrought-iron balustrades represent a level of craft more likely found on an Ivy League campus than in a contemporary public housing complex."

Most of the public housing apartments rented for very modest rents tied to the resident's incomes. Most did not pay separate utility charges. Leases were essentially for life, unless someone in the family was caught breaking the law.

HUD initially said they had to demolish because the buildings were so damaged they were dangerous to the residents.

That was not true.

John Fernandez, an Associate Professor of Architecture at MIT, inspected 140 of these apartments and concluded in papers filed in court that "no structural or nonstructural damage was found that could reasonably warrant any cost-effective building demolition...Therefore, the general conclusions are: demolition of any of the buildings of these four projects is not supported by the evidence of the survey, replacement of these buildings with contemporary construction would yield buildings of lower quality and shorter lifetime duration; the original construction methods and materials of these projects are far superior in their resistance to hurricane conditions than typical new construction and with renovation and regular maintenance, the lifetimes of the buildings in all four projects promise decades of continued service that may be extended indefinitely."

Residents promise to fix up their apartments themselves if given the chance. "I clean for a living," said one young woman resident at a recent public hearing where 100% of the residents opposed demolition. "I clean for a living and I am proud of it. I clean every body else's houses, I will sure clean up my own house - just let me back in to do it!"

After it the public understood that the buildings were not actually in such bad shape, the authorities then said it would cost much more to repair the buildings than to demolish and start over.

That too was not true.

The housing authority's own documents show that Lafitte could be repaired for $20 million, even completely overhauled for $85 million while the estimate for demolition and rebuilding many fewer units will cost over $100 million. St. Bernard could be repaired for $41 million, substantially modernized for $130 million while demolition and rebuilding less units will cost $197 million. BW Cooper could be substantially renovated for $135 million compared to $221 million to demolish and rebuild less units. Their own insurance company reported that it would take less than $5000 each to repair each of the CJ Peete apartments.

HUD suggests that less-dense "mixed income" communities are the way to go.

But residents and the community knows that if HUD has its way, only about 20% of the families who lived in these developments will be allowed to return.

New Orleans has suffered through the experience of HUD's "mixed income" policies before. The St. Thomas housing development, once home to 1510 families, was demolished with promises that people would be returning to a beautiful redeveloped community. Instead, there is now a Wal-Mart on the site and hundreds of cute gingerbread pastel houses. How many of the 1510 families who used to live in St. Thomas have been allowed to move back in? About a hundred. A few of these families have had to force their way in with litigation by the Greater New Orleans Fair Housing Action Center. The demolition of St. Thomas is hailed as a mostly-good outcome by nearby developers and some of the young professionals who moved into the surrounding neighborhood knowing what was coming. What do the 1400+ families who were moved out and not allowed to return think? Don't ask - no one else is.

HUD has the same plans for the neighborhoods where they are trying to demolish housing. According to documents filed with the Louisiana Housing Finance Agency:

St. Bernard will go from 1400 apartments to 595 apartments, only 160 of which will be for low-income public housing residents. There will be 160 tax credit mixed income and 145 market rate units;
CJ Peete will go from 723 units to 410, 154 will be public housing eligible, 133 mixed income and 123 market rate;
BW Cooper will go from 1546 to 410, 154 public housing eligible, 133 tax-credit mixed income, and 123 market;
And Lafitte will downsized in the same way.

As a result HUD plans to spend tens of millions of Katrina assistance funds to end up with far fewer affordable apartments.

The new Congress is looking into this. Representatives Barney Frank and Maxine Waters chair the committee and subcommittee with oversight of HUD. There is also a federal class action lawsuit filed by the Advancement Project, Jenner & Block, and local attorneys.

Residents of the St. Bernard housing development and their allies plan are not waiting any more. On Martin Luther King day, January 15, 2007, they are going in with or without permission. "What better way to celebrate Martin Luther King day than to risk going to jail for justice?" says Endesha Jukali, a neighbor who lived and worked in St. Bernard for years.

But the clock is still ticking. HUD, who has not "officially approved" its own announcement, says the demolition needs to get started to take advantage of the Katrina tax credits. Neither the Congress nor the federal courts have yet stepped in to stop the demolitions.

What do the sisters think about this? Ms. Jennings says: "I lived there for 34 years. That is my home. I just cannot afford to live outside the development. I don't know how else to explain it. I have the tears, but I do not have the words." Her twin sister, Ms. Williams cries and says: "That was my home for over 18 years. I never gave them no trouble. My home never flooded. I will clean it myself, just please let me back in. I wish I could make people understand. I just want to go home."

For more information about this matter see www.justiceforneworleans.org or contact the Advancement Project at (202) 728-9557.

Bill is a human rights lawyer and law professor at Loyola University New Orleans. Bill is one of the lawyers representing thousands of families who want to return to their apartments in New Orleans. You can contact him at Quigley@loyno.edu



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7 police officers indicted in Katrina bridge shootings

Last Updated: Thursday, December 28, 2006 | 9:37 PM ET
CBC News

A grand jury looking into the shooting deaths of two men during the aftermath of hurricane Katrina has indicted seven police officers, the U.S. district attorney's office said Thursday.

The seven were indicted on murder or attempted murder charges and have been given 24 hours by a judge to turn themselves in.
Reports arose last year that police had shot at least six contractors on the Danziger Bridge days after the storm hit New Orleans because they believed the people were looters.

Ronald Madison, a 40-year-old mentally disabled man, and James Barsett, 19, died in the shooting.

It was originally believed both men were killed in a shootout, but details were confused in the chaotic days following Katrina, which hit the city on Aug. 29, 2005.

The Danziger Bridge incident occurred six days after the hurricane.

Defence lawyers urged caution with regard to the case.

"As a wise man once said, a district attorney can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich," said Franz Zibilich, attorney for officer Robert Faulcon, who is charged with murder and attempted murder.

"They heard only one side of the story."



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Condi's Capers

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War Whore Rice still struggling for success after two years as top US diplomat

by David Millikin
AFP
29 Dec 06

Rice's globe-trotting -- 37 overseas trips totalling nearly 500,000 miles (800,000 kilometers) -- has yielded little concrete success, with her few diplomatic victories clouded by poor or no follow-up.
WASHINGTON - Condoleezza Rice wraps up her first two years as secretary of state with few diplomatic successes to show for her efforts and fewer signs she plans to change course to improve the record.

And yet, as Rice heads into 2007, the 52-year-old former academic should be at the top of her game for the last two years of President George W. Bush's administration.

She has seen off her longtime rival for Bush's ear, former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

And the Bush administration is under pressure from all sides to use more diplomacy and less bluster in its foreign policy, a shift which should place Rice at the epicenter of decision-making.

But since she took over as America's top diplomat on January 26, 2005 with an agenda to promote freedom and democracy around the globe, Rice has been shadowed by the failure of that plan on its biggest stage: Iraq.

The violence in Iraq, and the Bush administration's refusal to bring rivals Syria and Iran into efforts to stabilize the country, are widely blamed for the broader failure of US policy in the Middle East -- where Lebanon teeters on the brink of civil war and Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts languish.

Elsewhere, Rice's globe-trotting -- 37 overseas trips totalling nearly 500,000 miles (800,000 kilometers) -- has yielded little concrete success, with her few diplomatic victories clouded by poor or no follow-up.

A UN Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on
North Korea after it exploded its first nuclear device in October was one major success -- rushed to a vote with unusual speed and unequaled cooperation from a China long loath to punish its client state.

The sanctions, and Chinese pressure, managed to coax North Korea back to disarmament negotiations this month.

But the five-day session ended in deadlock, with US diplomats admitting there was no real indication Pyongyang intends to give up its nuclear mantle.

Rice also succeeded in pushing through a UN resolution slapping sanctions on Iran over its suspect nuclear program.

But the measure passed only after months of wrangling with Russia and China knocked most of the teeth out of the sanctions package and left little prospect of Washington being able to obtain tougher follow-up action that will almost certainly be needed to force Iran to back down.

Efforts to halt what Washington has branded genocide in Sudan's Darfur region have fared no better, with the government of President Omar al-Beshir defying US-backed demands for UN peacekeepers to halt nearly four years of ethnic cleansing.

And most recently in Somalia, weak US support for negotiations on a power-sharing deal between the Western-backed government and Islamist militia left the door open for a military offensive by US ally Ethiopia, which is pushing another country towards civil war.

US foreign policy experts said Rice must shoulder much of the blame for the lackluster diplomacy.

"Great secretaries of state have compelling views of the world and/or are effective negotiators -- Secretary Rice has so far demonstrated neither," said Aaron Miller, who advised six secretaries of state before joining the Woodrow Wilson Center think tank in Washington.

Even staunch supporters acknowledge that Rice, weighed down by the failed policy in Iraq, has little that is positive to show for her work so far.

"I don't know that there have been concrete advances" under Rice's diplomacy, said Joshua Muravchik of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, though he nevertheless went on to give her "high grades" for faithfully implementing Bush's policy agenda.

Rice has steadfastly rebuffed demands, most forcefully put forward by the high-powered Iraq Study Group, that she adopt a more flexible style of diplomacy that includes dealing with hostile players like Syria and Iran.

Whether or not she eventually follows that advice, Rice's best shot at achieving a major success in her remaining time as secretary of state is likely to focus on the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Her first trip in the new year will be to
Israel and the Palestinian territories, as part of a new US initiative expected to be built around boosting moderate Palestinian leader Mahmud Abbas and gaining Arab support for fast-tracking the declaration of a Palestinian state.

Progress on the Middle East's most intractable conflict could be enough to save Rice's diplomatic reputation.

"Her challenge in the next two years is to find one consequential issue such as the Arab-Israeli peace process and make it work," said the Wilson Center's Miller.

"That alone would make her an effective and successful secretary."



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Foreign Policy 101 With Condoleezza Rice

Condoleezza Rice
whitehouse.org

Are you a clear-thinking, sensible citizen with a good command of history and world events? Do you generally get along with people, even if your interests are opposed? Do you have good leadership skills, and acknowledge that up is up and left is, in fact, left? If so, today's U.S diplomatic corps may NOT be for you. But if you possess the essential skills of metaphorical bridge burning, selective rationality, arrogant provincialism, and regurgitating laughably nonsensical talking points ad nauseum, then you're a perfect candidate for a career at the US State Department!
I'm Condoleezza Rice, and although my tenure as Secretary of State has been noteworthy primarily for my penchant for dressing up like Catwoman at a BDSM convention, I'm proud to offer this comprehensive lesson on the foreign policy dos and don'ts which help me make America so intensely beloved all over the world!

Lesson #1: A centuries-old blood feud between Jews and Muslims threatens to spiral out of control, engulfing the entire Middle East in vicious bloodshed, and culminating in the eruption of an all-out nuclear World War III.

* DO: Totally ignore the building crisis for a minimum of five years, thereby setting the stage for religious extremists on both sides of the abyss to seize political power and foment radicalism and hatred.

* DO: Gaze on in perplexed wonder as the situation deteriorates into a multi-front regional war, then demonstrate your moral authority to negotiate peace by subsidizing the sale of highly sophisticated weaponry to the side that is predisposed to launching wildly disproportionate retaliatory attacks.

* DO NOT: Sully the spirit and effectiveness of Bush-era diplomacy by actually stooping to engage in dialogue with all parties involved. Everyone knows that conversing with persons with whom you disagree is tantamount to publicly deep-throating a succession of fat homo cocks.

Lesson #2: A mustachioed Middle Eastern leader and former CIA puppet spends his days writing romance novels after decades of war and U.N. sanctions have rendered his once-formidable army a harmless shambles and reduced his people to abject poverty.

* DO: Build him up in the media as an evil genius with his finger on the button of a Nukepox Laser Deathray set to sizzle every last American suburban stripmall, and convince the heartland that a vile horde of swarthy A-rabs is rowing their way to American shores intent on double-penetrating their blond-haired Christian daughters.

* DO: Invoke theatrical imagery such as mushroom clouds and smoking American cities in order to frighten voters enough to endorse the President's plan to march a never-ending stream of still-pubescent teens into the voracious gaping maw of the military industrial complex meat grinder.

* DO NOT: Demand that sanctions be dropped and the U.N. inspectors be permitted to continue their successful efforts to keep WMDs out of said leader's hands, or remind the public that your boss is nursing a personal vendetta against said defenseless figurehead on account of that mean old Arabiac once tried to hurt his daddy.

Lesson #3: The leader of a country whose people look like Chineses (and speak in a similar-sounding gobbledy-gook) possesses an arsenal of long-range ballistic missiles, equipped with nuclear warheads, that are pointed at the U.S. and ready for launch at a moment's notice.

* DO: Summarily ignore the deranged and aggressive tyrant for over half a decade. When he threatens to level an American city in a nuclear inferno, respond with milquetoast language and vague assurances that such a catastrophic attack "would be taken with utmost seriousness."

* DO: Entangle American troops in an intractable quagmire in the aforementioned mustachioed leader's country, allowing said Chinese-looking leader to expand his nuclear weapons program unchecked. This will enable America to avoid ever setting the unimaginably foolish precedent of provoking an unwinnable war in Southeast Asia.

* DO NOT: Assemble a bona fide multinational coalition to delicately yet firmly negotiate a nonproliferation treaty using a combination of carrots and sticks. Everyone knows that real diplomacy is for pussies.

Lesson #4: A series of top-secret intelligence memos reveal that a prominent international terrorist is actively planning to strike the United States sometime after the summer of 2001 - likely using commercial airliners - from his base of operations in Afghanistan.

* DO: Denounce the previous President's proactive bombings on said Afghanistan terror camps as a cheap political stunt to distract the public from its protracted and lusty gazing at his crotch.

* DO: Prepare a speech for delivery on the day of the attack which addresses the mega-important issue of relaunching President Reagan's anti-Soviet "Star Wars" initiative. Later, pooh-pooh the significance of the memos during Congressional testimony.

* DO NOT: Direct America's military to discontinue preparations to attack the aforementioned mustachioed eunuch, or change your own plans to follow the President's lead by promptly departing for a month-long summer vacation.

Lesson #5: The popular socialist leader of a major South American oil producing country has been rattling the President for years, ridiculing him at every turn. To make our Godly President look bad, this Latino-Rican madman even had the nefarious audacity to offer free heating oil to overtaxed poor Americans during the winter.

* DO: Portray him as a threat to global stability, to be dealt with harshly just as soon as our military is no longer stretched past the breaking point - which could be any day now.

* DO: Continue to publicly purport America's steadfast belief in Democracy, while simultaneously exploring options to run that uppity spic's ass out of town by staging a CIA black-ops coup.

* DO NOT: Indicate any knowledge of any assassination plot, even when it's indiscreetly revealed by one of your most fervent McJesus Taliban supporters.



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Governments Lie, People Lie

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What a tangled web we weave: high-tech lying

Last Updated: Thursday, December 28, 2006 | 3:15 PM ET
CBC News

Technological tools such as BlackBerrys, cellphones and e-mail are often cited for the convenience they offer. A new study suggests they also make it easier for people to lie.

Some 81 per cent of the 1,487 people surveyed for the online poll released on Wednesday admit to telling white lies at least once a day, and 72 per cent confess they use technological means to do so.
The poll, conducted in November for British financial services group Friends Provident PLC, found that 74 per cent of people believe technology makes it easier to lie, and 51 per cent of respondents said they felt less guilty using technology to lie than they do face-to-face.

"With gadgets likely to have topped the nation's shopping lists this Christmas, it seems as though Britons will have plenty of new toys to fuel this trend," the company said in a written statement.

Some of the respondents used multiple means for their "techno treachery," according to the researchers at British polling firm 72 Point Ltd., which was commissioned to produce the study.

Some 18 per cent of those surveyed used cellphones in their deceptions, 27 per cent sent mendacious text messages, and e-mail led the pack of lies with 27 per cent.

The most common use of technology to lie was related to the workplace. More than two-thirds, or 67 per cent of respondents, said they had told a white lie at work, with 43 per cent saying they had claimed they were ill, 23 per cent pretended work was done and 18 per cent masked a major error.

But work wasn't the only domain affected by dishonest use of devices. About 41 per cent of the survey's participants said they had deceived their families or partners. Some 29 per cent said the worst white lie to a partner would be about where they had been or what they were doing, and 27 per cent found flirting with someone else the worst.

Asked what they were likely to lie about, the people surveyed seemed to focus on appearances. They ranked buying new clothes or their cost first, at 37 per cent, followed by how good clothes look on a friend or partner at 35 per cent. What they ate tied for second place at 35 per cent, appropriately followed by how much they weigh at 32 per cent, and finally 31 per cent said they would fib about how much they had had to drink.

The survey found that 84 per cent of people believed the occasional white lie caused no one any harm.



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What freedom of information? Ministers are accused of scuppering right-to-know legislation

By Robert Verkaik, Law Editor
28 December 2006

Labour's flagship freedom of information laws are being blocked by ministers who are increasingly refusing to answer routine inquiries about government policy, new figures show.

Seven government departments, including the department in charge of monitoring the new powers, are identified in a Whitehall report as refusing to give answers to more than half of all requests made by the public.

The Foreign Office has the worst record by claiming exemptions for 70 per cent of all requests it has received. In total, of the 62,852 requests made to central government since 1 January 2005, 26,083 have not been granted. And of those questions the Government considers properly resolved many have not been answered to the questioner's satisfaction.
The report also shows that public requests for information have fallen to the lowest number since the laws were implemented.

The Department for Constitutional Affairs, which has responsibility for implementing the "right to know" laws, has the second worst record, by only providing full answers to 39 per cent of all requests.

Next month the Government is to go to court to try to prevent the public using the Freedom of Information Act to obtain even innocuous information about "the formulation" of policy after the Information Commissioner, the legislation's watchdog, ruled that ministers must reveal material that does not harm policy-making. Government lawyers are to appear before the Information Tribunal in an attempt to have the commissioner's decision overturned by arguing that all policy-related information must be withheld.

The legal challenge will be followed by the introduction of regulations designed to stop the media from making full use of the new powers. These regulations represent a direct attack on the spirit of the law, once heralded by Labour as the end of the culture of Whitehall secrecy. The media and other organisations will be restricted to a handful of requests a year, while the time taken by officials and ministers to consult and consider requests will now be counted when calculating whether people should be charged for any disclosure.

Figures released by the Department for Constitutional Affairs reveal requests to central government fell to a low of 7,641 between July and September, compared with 13,603 in the first three months after the law came into force. Freedom of information campaigners warn that this might be evidence that the public have become frustrated with their failure to get answers.

Overall, the success rate for requests across all departments has fallen by 2 per cent to 60 per cent in the past six months.

While Labour has been happy to release documents embarrassing the previous Tory administration over its handling of "Black Wednesday" - Britain's forced withdrawal from the ERM - ministers have been less willing to let the public use the Act to shed light on Labour's own political controversies.

For example, ministers are still refusing to release earlier drafts of the Attorney General's advice on the legality of the war with Iraq.

At the heart of its strategy is the Orwellian-sounding Central Clearing House where all sensitive or difficult requests are sent. Set up by ministers before the introduction of the laws, the unit employs 12 staff to monitor the public's use of the legislation.

Maurice Frankel, the director of the Campaign for Freedom of Information, says the Government's approach "strikes at the very heart" of the legislation. Michael Smyth, the head of public policy at the law firm Clifford Chance, said that while he acknowledged the Freedom of Information Act had opened up government, the regulations, due to come into force in April, will "emasculate" the media. "The Government dined out on the mantra that the FoI Act was to be motive-blind ... but these bizarre proposals will turn FoI requests into something where motive will become relevant," Mr Smyth said.

Requests, officially denied

Can you please disclose the public cost of guarding Charles and Camilla?

The Royal Family is exempt from the Freedom of Information Act. It would not be in the public interest to reveal information not covered by this exemption because of the potential threat to royal security.

Would you reveal the discussions relating to the Home Office's original decision to reclassify cannabis?

We believe that disclosure would lead to reluctance on the part of officials, ministers and others to provide frank advice in future.

Can we see the documents and briefing papers for Lord Levy's meetings with American diplomats over the Middle East crisis?

It is not in the public interest to disclose any of this material. Such a revelation would also harm international relations.

Please disclose the correspondence between the Food Standards Agency and Cadbury Schweppes in respect of the chocolate bar salmonella scare earlier this year.

Disclosure of some of the information held would prejudice any possible prosecution and may prejudice the commercial interest of Cadbury's.

Can we see the report into the links between MRSA rates and bed occupancy written by the Department of Health's chief economic adviser?

This would be detrimental to the future formulation of government policy.

How about Tony Blair's Christmas card list?

Many of the addressees are foreign dignitaries. This information would be harmful to international relations.

Could you send us all the written evidence given by police forces to the Government's 2004 public consultation on prostitution?

Disclosure might harm police efforts to prevent and detect crime.

Please disclose the minutes of Margaret Thatcher's last cabinet meeting.

It is important that ministers' discussions in cabinet are full and frank. To arrive at agreed policy positions and plans for actions, discussion needs to be free and uninhibited.

Can we have a look at the correspondence and documents relating to Alastair Campbell's decision to resign as director of communications?

This is personal information given in confidence.

OK then, can we see the correspondence and documents relating to Alan Milburn's resignation?

This is also personal information given in confidence.

Please disclose any Ministry of Defence research that has not already been published.

This request is too widely framed so that it would incur disproportionate costs.

What are the highest fees paid by the BBC and who earns them?

This is privileged and personal information.

You've already published the names of the guests who attended Chequers with Tony and Cherie Blair in 2004 so can we now see the guest list for last year?

We may want to publish this information at a later date so we can't give it to you now.

Can we see all the documents, memos and e-mails supporting the Attorney General's advice on the legality of the war in Iraq?

The Government finally published the written advice earlier this year after it was leaked to the media. But some of the other documents have been withheld on the grounds of professional legal privilege which protects disclosure of advice between the Attorney General and his client, in this case the Government.

Can we see Home Office reports on the impact of its plans for compulsory ID cards?

Disclosure would harm the formulation and development of government policy.

Would you tell us a little more about the sweater given to George Bush by Tony Blair?

This information is not in the public interest.

Please disclose all papers concerning the role of the British Government in the arrest and continued detention of the UK residents in Guantanamo Bay.

These documents are covered by privilege and would be exempt because of national security and harm to international relations.

Can we see the documents relating to the policy discussions for the future funding of Britain's schools?

Although this information may be innocuous it could inhibit the free and frank provision of advice and exchange of views for the purposes of deliberation.

Please give us information about the cases referred to the secretive unit, known as the 'clearing house', which fields tricky or potentially embarrassing questions made under the terms of the Freedom of Information Act?

Such information would prejudice the effective conduct of public affairs.



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South of the Border

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Drug gangs ravage Rio; 9 civilians, 3 police die

www.chinaview.cn 2006-12-29 17:19:20

BEIJING, Dec. 29 (Xinhuanet) -- In what Rio de Janeiro's top law enforcement official labeled a show of force prior to the swearing-in of a new governor, drug gangs roamed the city Thursday night setting fire to buses and firing on police stations in a spate of violence that killed 19 people.
Seven people in buses were burned to death, three policemen were shot to death, and two other civilians died in a crossfire during a shootout in Rio's Botafago District. Seven alleged gang members were also slain.

Roberto Precioso, head of Rio's Public Safety Department, said gang members used handguns, machine guns and grenades in 12 attacks against police stations and outposts that began in the early morning. Fourteen civilians and seven police officers were injured, he added.

He said police intelligence had warned the gangs were planning to stage the attacks for some time. Precioso said the attacks were apparently ordered from inside a state prison, but did not elaborate.

The attacks began shortly after midnight on the Washington Luiz highway that links Rio de Janeiro with the nearby mountain resort of Petropolis where alleged gang members set fire to two interstate buses. Four city buses were later set afire, Rio's Public Safety Office said.

Most of the violence occurred on Rio's poor north side, although a policeman was killed in the upscale Lagoa district and a woman was killed in an attack on a police booth in Botafogo.

Rio Mayor Cesar Maia said gangs appeared to be retaliating against militias -- reportedly run by off-duty police officers -- that in recent months have been battling the drug gangs in slums and charging residents for protection.

"The reason for what's happening is that militias have grown and the drug gangs are leaving,"' Maia told reporters. "To maintain their income, the gangs are increasing crime on the street."

Precioso said police were working to contain ongoing attacks and they did not present a danger to the millions expected to ring in the new year on Rio's beaches.

But he declined to answer a reporter's question about whether the police are prepared to handle security during the 2007 Pan American Games that will take place here.

Rio de Janeiro is one of the most violent cities in the world, with an annual murder rate of about 50 per 100,000 residents.



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Sandinistas Serious on Poverty, IMF

Managua, Dec 29 (Prensa Latina)

Sociologist Orlando Nunez, who will direct the Commission against Poverty starting January 10, assured that the future Sandinista government would assume a critical position against the International Monetary Fund.

"We have criticized the IMF and will continue to do so, not only on behalf of the government but also as a society," declared Nunez to La Primerisima Radio Station on Thursday.
The future official of the administration of President-elect Daniel Ortega confirmed they ratified that position in their recent meetings with the international financial organisms.

"We clarify that poverty is our priority," he stressed and added that they would stop the privatization encouraged by the neoliberal executives in power since 1990.

According to Nunez, the IMF, the World Bank, the Inter American Development Bank and other financial entities are just waiting for the establishment of the Sandinista Front to sit and negotiate.

However, the Sandinista government will trust not only in the IMF and will seek financial support from other entities outside Washington, he remarked.



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What? Me Worry?!

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Top Ten U.S. Disaster Threats for 2007 and Beyond

LiveScience
29 Dec 06

Government officials are evaluating and revising disaster plans around the United States in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, just as they did after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. While war and automobiles kill more people than nature, here is the list of the natural disasters that top scientists' worry lists.

10. Pacific Northwest Megathrust Earthquake

Geologists know it's just a matter of time before another 9.0 or larger earthquake strikes somewhere between Northern California and Canada. The shaking would be locally catastrophic, but the biggest threat is the tsunami that would ensue from a fault line that's seismically identical to the one that caused the deadly 2004 tsunami in Indonesia.
9. New York Hurricane

Major hurricanes have made direct hits on the boroughs before, but the interval between them is so long that people forget, and officials fear they might not take evacuation orders seriously. The larger problem: It would take nearly 24 hours to make a proper evacuation of New York City, but hurricanes move more swiftly as they race north, so real warning time could be just a few hours.


8. Asteroid Impact

Scientists can't say when the next devastating asteroid impact will occur. Odds are it won't be for decades or centuries, but an unknown space rock could make a sucker punch any time. Many experts say planning to deal with a continent-wide catastrophe should begin now.

7. Los Angeles Tsunami

An earthquake fault just off Southern California could generate a major quake and a $42 billion tsunami that would strike so fast many coastal residents would not have time to escape. Add to that the unprecedented destruction from the earthquake's shaking, and the situation would be reminiscent of Hurricane Katrina.

6. Supervolcano

It probably won't happen for hundreds or possibly even millions of years, but nobody really knows when Yellowstone will blow again, destroying life for hundreds of miles around and burying half the country in ash up to 3 feet (1 meter) deep.

5. Midwest Earthquake

It has been nearly two centuries since a series of three magnitude-8 quakes shook the then-sparsely populated Midwest, centered near New Madrid, Missouri. Another big one is inevitable. Now the region is heavily populated, yet building codes are generally not up to earthquake snuff. What's more, geology east of the Rockies causes quakes to be felt across a much wider region. Shelves would rattle from Boston to South Carolina. Some homes along the Mississippi would sink into oblivion.

4. Heat Waves

Heat waves kill more U.S. residents than any other natural disaster. As many as 10,000 people have died in past events. As urban areas get hotter, electricity systems are strained and the population ages, the risk grows.

3. East Coast Tsunami

It seems no coast is immune to the threat of tsunami. For the Eastern United States, the likeliest scenario is waves kicked up by an asteroid splashing into the ocean. Astronomers already have their eye on one rock that could hit in the distant future, but the cosmos could hold a surprise, too.

2. Gulf Coast Tsunami

A fault line in the Caribbean has generated deadly tsunamis before. Up to 35 million people could be threatened by one in the not-to-distant future, scientists say.

1. Total Destruction of Earth

Okay, so nobody is spending too much time worrying about what to do if the planet is annihilated, but at least one person has seriously pondered whether and when it could happen. From being sucked into a black hole to being blown up by an antimatter reaction, there are scientifically plausible risks of an event that would render this whole list moot.



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Tsunami-Generating Earthquake Near U.S. Possibly Imminent

By Robin Lloyd
Special to LiveScience
03 January 2005

There are only two places in the United States where colliding tectonic plates could cause a major tsunami, and new studies show a new earthquake in at least one of these locations could be imminent.

The Cascadia subduction zone, a 680-mile fault that runs 50 miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest -- from Cape Mendocino in California to Vancouver Island in southern British Columbia -- has experienced a cluster of four massive earthquakes during the past 1,600 years. Scientists are trying to figure out if it is about to undergo a massive shift one more time before entering a quiescent period.

"People need to know it could happen," said U.S. Geological Survey geologist Brian Atwater.
The historical record for this zone, which has the longest recorded data about its earthquakes of any major fault in the world, shows that earthquakes occur in clusters of up to five events, with an average time interval of 300 years between quakes, said Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist at Oregon State University. Goldfinger and other scientists have been studying this subduction zone for many years.

The two most recent quakes on this fault occurred in the year 1700 (a magnitude 9 event) and approximately the year 1500. It has now been 305 years since the last event. So is the Cascadia subduction zone finished for now or on the brink of event number five?

"We know quite a bit about the periodicity of this fault zone and what to expect," he said. "But the key point we don't know is whether the current cluster of earthquake activity is over yet, or does it have another event left in it."

The Cascadia subduction zone occurs where the relatively thin Juan de Fuca plate moves eastward and under the westward-moving North American Plate. When that collision results in a rupture, massive earthquakes occur. The other active subduction zone capable of producing a major earthquake-tsunami sequence is in Alaska, the site of a giant earthquake and subsequent tsunami in 1964.

Scientists say a rupture along the Cascadia fault would cause the sea floor to bounce 20 feet or more, setting off powerful ocean waves relatively close to shore. The first waves could hit coastal communities in 30 minutes or less -- too rapidly for the current warning systems to save lives.

A tsunami along the Atlantic Coast is considered extremely unlikely.

Tsunamis are the result of sudden rises or falls in a section of the earth's crust under or near the ocean, usually caused by earthquakes, volcanic activity or landslides. Earthquakes at subduction zones (rather than at other types of faults such as thrust faults) produce the highest energy tsunamis, especially when they occur in deep water. The seismic activity displaces sea water, creating a rise or fall in the level of the ocean above. This rise or fall in sea level initiates the formation of a tsunami wave. The wave's height increases in shallower water.

Geologists can track earthquakes back in time by radiocarbon dating deposits of sand called turbidites, which come from undersea landslides.

Major studies on the Cascadia fault zone have identified 19 to 21 major earthquake events during the past 10,000 years. During at least 17 of these events, the entire fault zone probably ruptured at once, causing an earthquake around magnitude 9 and major tsunamis, such as those which savaged East Asia last week.

The Asian event happened where the India plate was subducted beneath the Burma microplate. It ruptured, for the first time since 1833, along a 600-mile front just about the same length as the Cascadia Subduction Zone.

The Asian event may provide a shocking demonstration of the geologic future of the Pacific Northwest, Goldfinger said. For hundreds of years, subduction zone plates remain locked in place, releasing little tension. Every few centuries, in a few minutes of violence, forces are released as the upper plate moves seaward, producing a massive tsunami following earthquake shaking.

"In the case of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, you could have an area of ocean floor that's 50 miles wide and 500 to 600 miles long suddenly snap back, causing a huge tsunami," Goldfinger said. "At the same time, we could expect some parts of the upper, or North American, plate to sink one to two meters. These are massive tectonic events. Subduction zones produce the most powerful earthquakes and tsunamis in the world."

The question is not whether, but when the Cascadia Subduction Zone will break again.

"One possibility is that we could be done with this cluster and looking at a period of many hundreds of years before the next earthquake," Goldfinger said. "The other distinct possibility is we could still be in a cluster of events. If that's the case, the average time interval between earthquakes within a cluster is already up. We would be due just about any day."

The Associated Press contributed to this report



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History Reveals Hurricane Threat to New York City

By Robert Roy Britt
LiveScience
01 June 2005

[In 2004], Florida took the brunt of nature's summer fury, when four hurricanes slammed into the state. While the four-part pummeling was unusual, Florida has been hit nearly twice as often as any other state as long as records have been kept.

Residents in Florida know what to do. You've seen the lines of traffic lumbering away from the coast hours and even days before a storm hits.

But what would happen if a major hurricane struck New York City?



With another hurricane season officially underway and lots of activity expected, forecasters are armed with more data and more powerful computer models than ever before. There would be some warning.

Because of the population density, a successful evacuation of vulnerable low-lying areas in and around New York City and metropolitan New Jersey would actually have to start sooner than what is typically ordered in Florida and elsewhere, officials have determined based on studies by the Army Corps of Engineers.
But hurricanes move more quickly and become very difficult to predict when they head north of the Carolinas. In a likely scenario, experts say, there might only be hours of warning.

History reveals that New York and the Northeast have been hit hard before, and with little warning. Scientists say the next major hurricane to strike the city is a question of when, not if.

History forgotten

Late in the summer of 1938, a wave of energy moved off the coast of Africa. Winds were sucked into the atmospheric depression and curved by the Earth's spin into a counterclockwise rotation.

The storm churned unnoticed across the open sea, gathering strength from warm tropical waters. On Friday, Sept. 16, a Brazilian freighter reported the storm.

Gordon Dunn and Grady Norton, U.S. Weather Bureau forecasters in Florida, issued a hurricane warning for Miami, expecting the storm to hit Tuesday. Miami residents stockpiled supplies, boarded windows, secured boats.



But on Monday evening, the storm turned north and sped up to 20 mph, a swift forward speed that scientists of the time knew little about. It followed a typical path of recurvature -- resembling a giant C -- around the Bermuda High, an area of high atmospheric pressure in the mid-Atlantic that pushes air outward from its center, bouncing hurricanes off its edges like bubbles.

Dunn and Norton lost track of the storm off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and assumed it would curve eastward. The national weather map for Wednesday, Sept. 21, showed no hurricane, only a storm moving out to sea.

But winds had increased to 140 mph inside the beast. It moved north and picked up more forward speed.

The Bermuda High had moved to 44 degrees North latitude -- from its normal September position of thirty to thirty-five degrees -- blocking the hurricane's path and deflecting it northward. Abnormally warm water fed the storm as its forward speed increased to 60 mph! Waves tore up boardwalks in New Jersey.

No warnings were issued. It had been 117 years since the last great storm hit New York, on Sept. 23, 1821. History had been forgotten.

The 'fog bank'

By Wednesday afternoon, shingles were flying from roofs on Long Island. The sky grew dark. Trees were uprooted and telephone poles snapped like matchsticks. Three hours before high tide, residents reported a thick bank of gray fog, twenty-five to forty feet above the water, rolling in toward the south-facing coast.

Some residents fled to relative safety across the bridge. Many did not. Most of them died as the "fog bank" turned out to be a wall of water known as a storm surge.

Created partly by the vacuum of reduced atmospheric pressure and more so by the wind blowing over the water, the storm surge was highest in an area just east of the eye -- the right side of the storm when looked at from above. There, in the right-side eyewall, the counterclockwise winds combined with the storm's forward speed to create gusts exceeding 200 mph.

The eye of the hurricane passed some 55 miles east of Manhattan, a near miss in meteorological terms. Had it been a few miles west of Manhattan, forensic hurricanologists agree it would have devastated the island.

Drowned at work

The storm marched north. In Rhode Island, residents joked about putting up storm shutters. Finally, at least a warning had been issued. But the ferocity of the hurricane was no match for any last-minute preparations that might have been made.

At the head of Narragansett Bay, 30 miles from the Atlantic, the city of Providence awaited a fate its inhabitants could not have imagined. As the hurricane barreled toward the city, it pushed a surge of water up the bay. As the channel narrowed and became more shallow, the storm surge had nowhere to go but up.

The mountain of water carried boats and houses into the capital, flooding the first floor of buildings in downtown, where workers were just preparing to go home. Having no idea what a storm surge was, many of them were trapped and drowned where they worked. The surge of water caused tides (and even non-tidal sections of rivers) to rise 30 feet and more above normal levels.

Later that night, the Great New England Hurricane reached Canada, weakened but still potent enough to cause damage.

Over a four-day period, the 1938 storm dropped an average of 11 inches of rain over a 10,000-square-mile area, according to the National Weather Service. Flooding inflicted major damage through Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Vermont, causing more than $300 million in losses.

In all, 600 people died. Ten of those deaths were in New York City. Flooding knocked out electrical power in all areas above 59th Street in Manhattan and in all of the Bronx. A hundred large trees in Central Park were destroyed.



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Catastrophe Calculator: Estimate Asteroid Impact Effects Online

By Robert Roy Britt
Senior Science Writer
12 April 2004

The history of Earth's encounters with asteroids remains largely mysterious to scientists. They can't even agree whether a huge space rock that hit Mexico's Yucatan Penninsula 65 million years ago killed off the dinosaurs or not.

Nor can astronomers say when the next catastrophic impact will occur. They only know that it will happen, sooner or later.

However, now anyone with a passing interest in the fate of the planet can remove some of the mystery regarding the effects of the next collision. A new University of Arizona web page allows visitors to plug in a hypothetical space rock's size, the visitor's distance from the impact site, and other parameters to generate an outline of devastation.

But be warned: Removing the mystery invites a bit of terror over the hypothetical slams, bangs, fireballs, falling skies and rushing winds generated by a giant impact.

Prepare to be scared
Being somewhat of a voyeur when it comes to natural catastrophe, I couldn't resist running some scenarios through the new catastrophe calculator.

If you read on, please keep in mind that the odds of a serious impact occurring in any year are extremely low. A civilization-ending impact, while possible, almost surely won't happen within our lifetimes (90 percent of all asteroids big enough and close enough to do the job will be found by 2008) and is extremely unlikely even over the next millennium.

But hurling big virtual rocks at the planet is admittedly kind of fun. And in this case it's at least more scientifically meaningful than the average video game. I started by dropping a 9.3-mile-wide (15-kilometer) asteroid -- the estimated size of the suspected dinosaur killer -- on San Francisco.

The Bay Area doesn't do so well.

The resulting crater, at 113 miles (181 kilometers) wide, pretty much tells the story. The entire metropolis vanishes faster than you can say where you left your heart. What isn't consumed is knocked over in an earthquake of magnitude 10.2, bigger than any in recorded history. Heat from a scorching fireball would turn much of the state, and parts of others, into toast.

The quick end to the Bay Area turns out to be a blessing compared to what Los Angeles residents face.

About 10 seconds after impact, radiation from the fireball sears Southern California, igniting clothing and even plywood. Within two minutes the ground under Hollywood begins to shake. Weak brick structures crumble. Concrete irrigation ditches are damaged. Frame houses not properly bolted to their foundations are knocked off. Even tree branches fall.

And then it gets nasty.

'Bad things happen'

Six minutes after impact, much of earth that used to be under San Francisco has soared high into the atmosphere and begins to fall on the City of Angels (and just about everywhere else). Ultimately, a blanket of ejected material nearly 18 feet (5.5 meters) deep is deposited in and around LA.

Within a half-hour of the initial cosmic impact, on comes a 66-mph (30 meters per second) wind to rake what's left of Los Angeles.

"If you're close to the site of a major impact, some pretty bad things happen," said Jay Melosh, an expert in impact cratering at the University of Arizona.

Melosh oversaw the computer program's development. It's intended to help scientists further their research and journalists to report on the risks of asteroid impacts. "We could have put in some worse stuff, but it started getting grisly," he told SPACE.com .

I continued with my West Coast disaster scenario by heading across the country. Denver, about a third of the way over, is coated with nearly a foot of ejected material, called ejecta. Winds reach 22 mph.

New York City residents are spared enough that they can at first sit comfortably and watch all this on TV (to the extent there are any video feeds). Still, about 13 minutes after impact, windows and doors rattle in the East. After about 21 minutes, stuff shot out from the world's largest new crater starts to rain down on the East, depositing a half-inch blanket across the city. About 3-1/2 hours later an 8-mph wind arrives.

Object as big as the one that presumably wiped out the dinosaurs -- some investigators aren't convinced it was the sole cause -- are extremely rare, slamming into the planet perhaps just once every 300 million years.

Presently there are no asteroids known to be on a collision course with Earth. And experts agree that one this big would almost surely come with decades or centuries of warning time, being fairly easy to spot well before it becomes an imminent threat. By then, experts hope, methods will be developed to divert or destroy such a rock.

More likely scenarios

But what about something the size of the asteroid that dug out Meteor Crater in Arizona? That 600-foot-deep (180-meter) hole in the ground, popular now with tourists, is less than 50,000 years old and was created by a space rock so small that another one like it might not be noticed until it hits.

The Arizona culprit was only about 66 feet (20 meters) wide. But instead of fragile stone, it was composed mostly of iron. Examples linked with the online impact-effect program show how to specify this harder, more destructive material. A rock this size (though not of this density) is thought to hit Earth every 158 years, on average.

I duplicated the Meteor Crater script in Newark, New Jersey, 10 miles (16 kilometers) from Manhattan as the crow flies.

Location, of course, is everything. A nearly mile-wide crater is dug in New Jersey. A moderate earthquake of magnitude 4.7 rattles the region. New York City has handled such temblors in the past and largely endures. No significant ejecta hits Manhattan, and winds reach an insignificant 3.7 mph.

So I cranked it up a bit.

An asteroid the size of two football fields, even if stony in nature, is another story. It carves a crater in New Jersey that's 2 miles wide (3.4 kilometers). The resulting earthquake is magnitude 6.4, enough to frighten the pants off New York City emergency planners. A rock this size hits the planet about every 14,000 years.

Just estimates

Melosh developed the program along with fellow researcher Gareth Collins and undergraduate Robert Marcus. Melosh said the program should prove valuable to scientists who otherwise would have to wade through complicated calculations to generate impact scenarios for their research.

It's important to point out that what actually happens when an asteroid crashes into the surface is not well known, because scientists have never actually witnessed an impact event of any scale. But they have used computer models to explore the probable effects of impacts, and they have some craters to study on Earth.

Researchers assume the blast of heat generated by a cosmic collision would be similar to nuclear bomb detonations. So for these thermal radiation effects, Melosh's team relied on a 1977 publication, "The Effect of Nuclear Weapons," by the U.S. Defense Department and the Department of Energy.

"We determine at a given distance what type of damage the radiation causes," said Marcus, who did most of the grunt work developing the computer program. "We have descriptions like when grass will ignite, when plywood or newspaper will ignite, when humans will suffer 2nd or 3rd degree burns."

For earthquake predictions, the researchers culled data from actual California events and knowledge of how earthquakes propagate like sound waves through the planet.

The global effects of an asteroid impact are harder to predict. Many scientists think the larger impacts throw so much dust into the atmosphere that a global winter would ensue, lasting for months or years. Melosh is skeptical about the dust.

"Nuclear explosions are good at raising dust that's already there, but they're not good at creating it," Melosh said. He figures most of the ejected material is melted and then hardens into tiny, hardened and almost microscopic spheres. "Most of the ejecta comes down within an hour." He calls the massive dust creation "a media myth."

More to come

There is much left out of the new online impact program. Melosh wanted it to be practical to use, and he's open to suggestions for improvement.

Important details of an impact -- exactly how it penetrates the atmosphere and the surface, are simplified. And one major effect is not considered: the tsunami that would result from an ocean impact (Earth's surface is two-thirds water). In addition, the results of a user's input do not mention that a rush of wind can't blow down a tree that's buried under ejecta, nor does either matter if the tree were already burned to a crisp.

Minor and major revisions to the program may be made based on input from other scientists, Melosh said. And in coming weeks, his group will post background information explaining the complex calculations behind the program.

The Impact Effects program.



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Potential Southern California Tsunami Could Cost up to $42 Billion

By LiveScience Staff
31 March 2005

The warning system covering the Pacific Ocean might save many lives if a tsunami strikes Southern California. But nothing can stop the destruction.

A new study puts the price tag for a worst-case scenario at $42 billion, and that does not include billions of dollars in additional damage caused directly by an earthquake that is pegged as the likely source of a potentially devastating tsunami.

Waves could inundate parts of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Many beach cities and smaller communities in Los Angeles and Orange County would suffer.

And there might not be enough time for a warning to be very useful.

The one-minute warning

The scientists say an underwater landslide just offshore, triggered by an earthquake, could generate a tsunami whose tallest waves would arrive "only one minute after the slide."

Other studies have the Pacific Northwest could be hit swiftly by devastating tsunamis, too. And researchers recently warned of a similar danger to Gulf Coast states. Prior to the tsunami last December, other geologists warned of the risk of mega-tsunamis around the entire Pacific basin from underwater landslides.

The new research was done by geologists, tsunami experts, engineers and urban planners at the University of Southern California. It is detailed in April edition of Civil Engineering magazine.

The group cites recent studies that suggest a large earthquake under the ocean off Los Angeles is likely at some point in the future. And it does not take a 9.0 "great quake," such as the one last December in Indonesia, to do the trick. A magnitude 7.0 earthquake near Papua New Guinea in 1998 generated deadly waves thought to be caused by a submarine landslide, which the earthquake triggered.

"The shaking from an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater on an offshore thrust or reverse fault would undoubtedly be damaging to coastal communities [in Southern California], and its effect could be greatly magnified if it were to generate a tsunami," the scientists write.

Repeating history

The conclusions draw on evidence from several locally generated small tsunamis that have been recorded over the past 200 years. A Santa Barbara earthquake in 1812 spawned a moderate tsunami that affected more than 37 miles (60 kilometers) of coastline. Evidence of prehistoric events suggest submarine slumps that could have generated tsunamis up to 66 feet (20 meters) tall.

"There will be others," the researchers say, though of course they don't know when or how tall any tsunami might be.

Various scenarios in the study generate loss estimates of between $7 billion and $42 billion directly related to the tsunami. Costs include direct damage as well as the economic costs of lost shipping opportunities and traffic delays owing to damaged freeways.

"We chose not to model fatalities because we were being deliberately conservative, and because we wanted to avoid contentious assumptions about the economic value of life," said study member James Moore II. "The Papua New Guinea tsunami of 1998 was generated by a mechanism similar to the one modeled here, and that event cost over 2,000 lives. The toll here could be much higher."



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Super Volcano Will Challenge Civilization, Geologists Warn

By Robert Roy Britt
LiveScience Senior Writer
08 March 2005



The eruption of a super volcano "sooner or later" will chill the planet and threaten human civilization, British scientists warned Tuesday.

And now the bad news: There's not much anyone can do about it.

Several volcanoes around the world are capable of gigantic eruptions unlike anything witnessed in recorded history, based on geologic evidence of past events, the scientists said. Such eruptions would dwarf those of Mount St. Helens, Krakatoa, Pinatubo and anything else going back dozens of millennia.
"Super-eruptions are up to hundreds of times larger than these," said Stephen Self of the United Kingdom's (U.K.) Open University.

"An area the size of North America can be devastated, and pronounced deterioration of global climate would be expected for a few years following the eruption," Self said. "They could result in the devastation of world agriculture, severe disruption of food supplies, and mass starvation. These effects could be sufficiently severe to threaten the fabric of civilization."

Self and his colleagues at the Geological Society of London presented their report to the U.K. Government's Natural Hazard Working Group.

"Although very rare these events are inevitable, and at some point in the future humans will be faced with dealing with and surviving a super eruption," Stephen Sparks of the University of Bristol told LiveScience in advance of Tuesday's announcement.

Supporting evidence

The warning is not new. Geologists in the United States detailed a similar scenario in 2001, when they found evidence suggesting volcanic activity in Yellowstone National Park will eventually lead to a colossal eruption. Half the United States will be covered in ash up to 3 feet (1 meter) deep, according to a study published in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters.

Explosions of this magnitude "happen about every 600,000 years at Yellowstone," says Chuck Wicks of the U.S. Geological Survey, who has studied the possibilities in separate work. "And it's been about 620,000 years since the last super explosive eruption there."

Past volcanic catastrophes at Yellowstone and elsewhere remain evident as giant collapsed basins called calderas.

A super eruption is a scaled up version of a typical volcanic outburst, Sparks explained. Each is caused by a rising and growing chamber of hot molten rock known as magma.

"In super eruptions the magma chamber is huge," Sparks said. The eruption is rapid, occurring in a matter of days. "When the magma erupts the overlying rocks collapse into the chamber, which has reduced its pressure due to the eruption. The collapse forms the huge crater."

The eruption pumps dust and chemicals into the atmosphere for years, screening the Sun and cooling the planet. Earth is plunged into a perpetual winter, some models predict, causing plant and animal species disappear forever.

"The whole of a continent might be covered by ash, which might take many years -- possibly decades -- to erode away and for vegetation to recover," Sparks said.

Yellowstone may be winding down geologically, experts say. But they believe it harbors at least one final punch. Globally, there are still plenty of possibilities for super volcano eruptions, even as Earth quiets down over the long haul of its 4.5-billion-year existence.

"The Earth is of course losing energy, but at a very slow rate, and the effects are only really noticeable over billions rather than millions of years," Sparks said.

Human impact

The odds of a globally destructive volcano explosion in any given century are extremely low, and no scientist can say when the next one will occur. But the chances are five to 10 times greater than a globally destructive asteroid impact, according to the new British report.

The next super eruption, whenever it occurs, might not be the first one humans have dealt with.

About 74,000 years ago, in what is now Sumatra, a volcano called Toba blew with a force estimated at 10,000 times that of Mount St. Helens. Ash darkened the sky all around the planet. Temperatures plummeted by up to 21 degrees at higher latitudes, according to research by Michael Rampino, a biologist and geologist at New York University.

Rampino has estimated three-quarters of the plant species in the Northern Hemisphere perished.

Stanley Ambrose, an anthropologist at the University of Illinois, suggested in 1998 that Rampino's work might explain a curious bottleneck in human evolution: The blueprints of life for all humans -- DNA -- are remarkably similar given that our species branched off from the rest of the primate family tree a few million years ago.

Ambrose has said early humans were perhaps pushed to the edge of extinction after the Toba eruption -- around the same time folks got serious about art and tool making. Perhaps only a few thousand survived. Humans today would all be descended from these few, and in terms of the genetic code, not a whole lot would change in 74,000 years.

Sitting ducks

Based on the latest evidence, eruptions the size of the giant Yellowstone and Toba events occur at least every 100,000 years, Sparks said, "and it could be as high as every 50,000 years. There are smaller but nevertheless huge eruptions which would have continental to global consequences every 5,000 years or so."

Unlike other threats to mankind -- asteroids, nuclear attacks and global warming to name a few -- there's little to be done about a super volcano.

"While it may in future be possible to deflect asteroids or somehow avoid their impact, even science fiction cannot produce a credible mechanism for averting a super eruption," the new report states. "No strategies can be envisaged for reducing the power of major volcanic eruptions."

The Geological Society of London has issued similar warnings going back to 2000. The scientists this week called for more funding to investigate further the history of super eruptions and their likely effects on the planet and on modern society.

"Sooner or later a super eruption will happen on Earth and this issue also demands serious attention," the report concludes.

Click HERE to see image of the effects of a supervolcano.



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Central U.S. Warned of Larger Earthquakes to Come

By Robert Roy Britt
LiveScience Senior Writer
10 February 2005

A moderate earthquake that rattled parts of Arkansas and Tennessee Thursday [Feb. 2005] should serve as a wake-up call to the central United States about the potential for much stronger events, experts said.

The temblor, preliminarily put at magnitude 4.1, shook eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee early in the morning. It was centered 47 miles north-northwest of Memphis.

There were no reports of significant damage.

"Although today's earthquake was what we characterize as 'light,' this area is capable of producing an earthquake that can result in significant loss of life and property damage," said Charles "Chip" Groat, director of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Groat pointed out that the region was host to the strongest earthquake on record in the lower 48 United States.

Midwest record-setters

The infamous series of three New Madrid quakes in 1811-1812 occurred a few weeks apart, from Dec. 16 to Feb. 7. They measured 8.1, 8.0 and 7.8 and represent three of the four strongest earthquakes ever recorded in the lower 48.

"Strong earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone are certain to occur in the future," states a USGS fact sheet. "There is a 9-in-10 chance of a magnitude 6 to 7 temblor occurring in the New Madrid Seismic Zone within the next 50 years."

The New Madrid fault's remarkable spree of shifts devastated the sparsely populated area at the time. Amazingly, the quakes were so strong they were felt in much of the country -- as far away as Boston. Damage was reported as far away as Charleston, South Carolina, and Washington, D.C.

Differences in geology east of the Rockies account for the widespread effects, geologists say.

The strongest of the New Madrid events was 10 times more intense than the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, scientists say. Earthquakes of similar intensity occurred around the year 900 and again in the middle 1400s along the New Madrid fault, named for a small town in Missouri.

Good-sized temblors, the sort that can topple brick facades or bring down poorly designed bridges, rattled the New Madrid seismic zone in 1843 (6.3-magnitude) and 1895 (6.6-magnitude).

All this taken into account, plus the much larger population in the danger zone now, suggests a magnitude 7 quake on the New Madrid fault today "could be far worse than those of the 1989 magnitude 7 Loma Prieta, California, earthquake," according to the USGS. That rattle of the bay, which struck the San Francisco area during the World Series, killed 63 people and caused $6 billion in damage.

Not prepared

In California and other parts of the West, many old buildings and roadways have been retrofitted to largely endure earthquakes in the magnitude 6 to 7 range. But buildings in the New Madrid fault region constructed before modern building codes were put in place typically are not retrofitted, according to a USGS statement.

"This earthquake is an opportunity to gather more knowledge about the region's seismic risk and incorporate it into safer buildings," Groat said.

The regional Center for Community Earthquake Preparedness issued a statement Thursday saying the quake "underscores the need for Mid-South emergency management officials to have a seismic response plan ready." The CCEP is staffed by engineers and geologists from the University of Mississippi.

The Top 10

Here are the Top 10 U.S. earthquakes for all 50 states, according to the USGS:

1. Prince William Sound, Alaska 1964, 9.2
2. Andreanof Islands, Alaska 1957, 9.1
3. Rat Islands, Alaska 1965, 8.7
4. East of Shumagin Islands, Alaska 1938, 8.2
5. New Madrid, Missouri 1811, 8.1
6. Yakutat Bay, Alaska 1899, 8.0
7. Andreanof Islands, Alaska 1986, 8.0
8. New Madrid, Missouri 1812, 8.0
9. Near Cape Yakataga, Alaska 1899, 7.9
10. Fort Tejon, California 1857, 7.9

The largest earthquake in the world since measurements have been made was a 9.5-magnitude event that shook Chile in 1960. The 1964 Alaskan quake had held the No. 2 spot globally until this week, when scientists provided an updated estimate of the Dec. 26, 2004 tsunami-causing Sumatran earthquake. That subsea event has now been pegged at 9.3.

Scientists note that all of the magnitude numbers are estimates, especially the historical temblors for which there exist little or no reliable instrumented measurements.




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Billion Dollar Weather Disasters

By Michael Schirber
LiveScience Staff Writer
30 January 2005



One way to track climate trends is to look at disasters above a given threshold. The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) released last week its list of U.S. weather and climate disasters that have cost more than a billion dollars.

During the period between 1980 and 2004, there were 62 events in the U.S. that exceeded a billion dollars in costs and damages. These disasters include storms, droughts, forest fires and flooding. New to the list are the four hurricanes - Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne - that hit the country last summer.

Although there has been a rise in the number of these costly events in the last decade or so, some of the most damaging catastrophes occurred in the 1980s.

It is important to note that there is no adjustment made for inflation when determining what events initially qualify for the list -- they had to cost $1 billion at the time they occurred. This results in a slightly greater probability that a more recent event will make the list.

However, in comparing the total cost from a year's disasters once they've made the list, the dollar amounts are normalized to reflect inflation. The total damages for all 62 events combined are over $390 billion in 2002 dollars.

Beach property

In an accompanying report, NCDC researchers Tom Ross and Neal Lott comment on one noticeable trend in the data: an increase in losses due to hurricanes.

Accounting for almost a third of the billion-dollar list, tropical storms and hurricanes are the most frequent type of disaster in the years studied. This is partly due to an apparent upswing recently in the frequency of major hurricanes, which are defined by sustained wind speeds above 110 mph. The frequency of hurricanes is thought to ebb and flow in long-term cycles related to global climate factors.

The thirty years between 1961 and 1990 saw very few major hurricanes make landfall on the United States. This is in contrast to the 18 major hurricanes that struck between 1941 and 1960.

Starting with Hurricanes Hugo (1989) and Andrew (1992), there now appears to be a return to the active hurricane seasons of the '40s and '50s.

But in assessing the damages that these storms wrought, Ross and Lott stress that other factors must be included, such as population changes.

Americans have been moving to the coastlines in droves. Between 1940 and 1990, the coastal population of Florida has grown four times faster than the rate of the nation as a whole. The 426 counties along the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico comprise 11 percent of the land in the continental U.S., but account for 45 percent of the population.

If a hurricane hits, there is more now to destroy. This is also true for other disasters, like flooding.

Heat danger

As dramatic as the recent hurricanes have been, it is perhaps surprising that droughts and heat waves cause the most damage and deaths.

In both 1980 and 1988, severe drought and heat ravaged the central and eastern parts of the country. They were the only billion dollar events on the list for those two years, yet they alone made 1980 and 1988 the two costliest years on the list - $48 and $62 billion, respectively, in 2002 dollars.

These heat waves also were the deadliest weather or climate events of the study period - with estimated deaths due to heat stress approaching 10,000 in each case.

In comparison, 1998 saw the most events - seven - but it was not an especially high year in total damages, with just over $20 billion in 2002 dollars.



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A Chronology of U.S. Billion Dollar Disasters

By LiveScience Staff
31 January, 2004

How good is your weather memory? In what year did the so-called "Storm of the Century" sweep the country and pound the entire Eastern Seaboard? How many tornadoes struck the Midwest in a record-setting one-week period of May, 2003? And do you remember the thousands of deaths caused by heat waves in 1980 and 1988?

Along with the deaths came significant financial costs.

The United States sustained 62 weather-related disasters between 1980 and 2004 in which overall damages and costs were $1 billion or more at the time of the event. Any event under that amount is not on the list, even if it would be based on an inflation adjustment. That means some earlier events that might have been as financially severe in relative terms may not be represented here.

Some inflation adjusting has been done for events that initially met the billion dollar threshold. Two cost figures are given for events prior to 2002: the first represents actual dollar costs at the time of the event; the second value in parenthesis (if given) is the dollar cost normalized to 2002 dollars, allowing for more accurate comparison of damage figures over time.

The total normalized losses from the 62 events exceed $390 billion.

2004

Hurricane Jeanne September 2004. Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in east-central Florida, causing considerable wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in FL, with some flood damage also in the states of GA, SC, NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ, PA, and NY. Puerto Rico also affected. Preliminary estimate of over $6.5 billion in damage/costs; at least 28 deaths.

Hurricane Ivan September 2004. Category 3 hurricane makes landfall on Gulf coast of Alabama, with significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in coastal AL and FL panhandle, along with wind/flood damage in the states of GA, SC, NC, VA, LA, MS, WV, MD, TN, KY, OH, DE, NJ, PA, and NY. Preliminary estimate of over $12 billion in damage/costs; at least 52 deaths.

Hurricane Frances September 2004. Category 2 hurricane makes landfall in east-central Florida, causing significant wind, storm surge, and flooding damage in FL, along with considerable flood damage in the states of GA, SC, NC, and NY due to 5-15 inch rains. Preliminary estimate of over $9 billion in damage/costs; at least 38 deaths.

Hurricane Charley August 2004. Category 4 hurricane makes landfall in southwest Florida, resulting in major wind and some storm surge damage in FL, along with some damage in the states of SC and NC. Preliminary estimate of over $14 billion in damage/costs; at least 34 deaths.

2003

Southern California Wildfires Late October to early November 2003. Dry weather, high winds, and resulting wildfires in Southern California. More than 743,000 acres of brush and timber burned, over 3700 homes destroyed; over $2.5 billion damage/costs; 22 deaths. October and November.

Hurricane Isabel September 2003. Category 2 hurricane makes landfall in eastern North Carolina, causing considerable storm surge damage along the coasts of NC, VA, and MD, with wind damage and some flooding due to 4-12 inch rains in NC, VA, MD, DE, WV, NJ, NY, and PA; estimate of approximately $5 billion in damages/costs; at least 55 deaths.

Severe Storms and Tornadoes Early May 2003. Numerous tornadoes over the midwest, MS valley, OH/TN valleys and portions of the southeast, with a modern record one-week total of approximately 400 tornadoes reported; over $3.4 billion in damages/costs; 51 deaths.

Storms and Hail Early April 2003. Severe storms and large hail over the southern plains and lower MS valley, with Texas hardest hit, and much of the monetary losses due to hail; over $ 1.6 billion in damages/costs: 3 deaths.

2002

Widespread Drought Spring through early Fall 2002. Moderate to Extreme drought over large portions of 30 states, including the western states, the Great Plains, and much of the eastern U.S.; estimate of over $ 10.0 billion in damages/costs; no deaths.

Western Fire Season Spring through Fall 2002. Major fires over 11 western states from the Rockies to the west coast, due to drought and periodic high winds, with over 7.1 million acres burned; over $ 2.0 billion in damages/costs; 21 deaths.

2001

Tropical Storm Allison June 2001. The persistent remnants of Tropical Storm Allison produces rainfall amounts of 30-40 inches in portions of coastal Texas and Louisiana, causing severe flooding especially in the Houston area, then moves slowly northeastward; fatalities and significant damage reported in TX, LA, MS, FL, VA, and PA; estimate of approximately $5.0 (5.1) billion in damage/costs; at least 43 deaths.

Midwest and Ohio Valley Hail and Tornadoes April 2001. Storms, tornadoes, and hail in the states of TX, OK, KS, NE, IA, MO, IL, IN, WI, MI, OH, KY, WV, and PA, over a 6-day period; over $1.9 billion in damage/costs, with the most significant losses due to hail; at least 3 deaths.

2000

Drought/Heat Wave Spring-Summer 2000. Severe drought and persistent heat over south-central and southeastern states causing significant losses to agriculture and related industries; estimate of over $4.0 (4.2) billion in damage/costs; estimated 140 deaths nationwide.

Western Fire Season Spring-Summer 2000. Severe fire season in western states due to drought and frequent winds, with nearly 7 million acres burned; estimate of over $2.0 (2.1) billion in damage/costs (includes fire suppression); no deaths reported.

1999

Hurricane Floyd September 1999. Large category 2 hurricane makes landfall in eastern NC, causing 10-20 inch rains in 2 days, with severe flooding in NC and some flooding in SC, VA, MD, PA, NY, NJ, DE, RI, CT, MA, NH, and VT; estimate of at least $6.0 (6.5) billion damage/costs; 77 deaths.

Eastern Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1999. Very dry summer and high temperatures, mainly in eastern U.S., with extensive agricultural losses; over $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; estimated 502 deaths.

Oklahoma-Kansas Tornadoes May 1999. Outbreak of F4-F5 tornadoes hit the states of Oklahoma and Kansas, along with Texas and Tennessee, Oklahoma City area hardest hit; over $1.6 (1.7) billion damage/costs; 55 deaths.

Arkansas-Tennessee Tornadoes January 1999. Two outbreaks of tornadoes in 6-day period strike Arkansas and Tennessee; approximately $1.3 (1.4) billion damage/costs; 17 deaths.

1998

Texas Flooding October-November 1998. Severe flooding in southeast Texas from 2 heavy rain events, with 10-20 inch rainfall totals; approximately $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 31 deaths.

Hurricane Georges September 1998. Category 2 hurricane strikes Puerto Rico, Florida Keys, and Gulf coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida panhandle, 15-30 inch 2-day rain totals in parts of AL/FL; estimated $5.9 (6.5) billion damage/costs; 16 deaths.

Hurricane Bonnie August 1998. Category 3 hurricane strikes eastern North Carolina and Virginia, extensive agricultural damage due to winds and flooding, with 10-inch rains in 2 days in some locations; approximately $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 3 deaths.

Southern Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1998. Severe drought and heat wave from Texas/Oklahoma eastward to the Carolinas; $6.0-$9.0 billion (6.6-9.9) damage/costs to agriculture and ranching; at least 200 deaths.

Minnesota Severe Storms/Hail May 1998. Very damaging severe thunderstorms with large hail over wide areas of Minnesota; over $1.5 (1.7) billion damage/costs; 1 death.

Southeast Severe Weather Winter-Spring 1998. Tornadoes and flooding related to El Nino in southeastern states; over $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; at least 132 deaths.

Northeast Ice Storm January 1998. Intense ice storm hits Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York, with extensive forestry losses; over $1.4 (1.5) billion damage/costs; 16 deaths.

1997

Northern Plains Flooding April-May 1997. Severe flooding in Dakotas and Minnesota due to heavy spring snowmelt; approximately $3.7 (4.1) billion damage/costs; 11 deaths.

MS and OH Valleys Flooding and Tornadoes March 1997. Tornadoes and severe flooding hit the states of AR, MO, MS, TN, IL, IN, KY, OH, and WV, with over 10 inches in 24 hours in Louisville; estimated $1.0 (1.1) billion damage/costs; 67 deaths.

West Coast Flooding December 1996-January 1997. Torrential rains (10-40 inches in 2 weeks) and snowmelt produce severe flooding over portions of California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, and Montana; approximately $3.0 (3.4) billion damage/costs; 36 deaths.

1996

Hurricane Fran September 1996. Category 3 hurricane strikes North Carolina and Virginia, over 10-inch 24-hour rains in some locations and extensive agricultural and other losses; over $5.0 (5.8) billion damage/costs; 37 deaths.

Southern Plains Severe Drought Fall 1995 through Summer 1996. Severe drought in agricultural regions of southern plains--Texas and Oklahoma most severely affected; approximately $5.0 (6.0) billion damage/costs; no deaths.

Pacific Northwest Severe Flooding February 1996. Very heavy, persistent rains (10-30 inches) and melting snow over Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; 9 deaths.

Blizzard of '96 Followed by Flooding January 1996. Very heavy snowstorm (1-4 feet) over Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast; followed by severe flooding in parts of same area due to rain and snowmelt; approximately $3.0 (3.5) billion damage/costs; 187 deaths.

1995

Hurricane Opal October 1995. Category 3 hurricane strikes Florida panhandle, Alabama, western Georgia, eastern Tennessee, and the western Carolinas, causing storm surge, wind, and flooding damage; over $3.0 (3.6) billion damage/costs; 27 deaths.

Hurricane Marilyn September 1995. Category 2 hurricane devastates U.S. Virgin Islands; estimated $2.1 (2.5) billion damage/costs; 13 deaths.

Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana/Mississippi Severe Weather and Flooding May 1995. Torrential rains, hail, and tornadoes across Texas - Oklahoma and southeast Louisiana - southern Mississippi, with Dallas and New Orleans areas (10-25 inches in 5 days) hardest hit; $5.0-$6.0 (6.5-7.1) billion damage/costs; 32 deaths.

California Flooding January-March 1995. Frequent winter storms cause 20-70 inches rainfall and periodic flooding across much of California; over $3.0 (3.6) billion damage/costs; 27 deaths.

1994

Western Fire Season Summer-Fall 1994. Severe fire season in western states due to dry weather; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; death toll undetermined.

Texas Flooding October 1994. Torrential rain (10-25 inches in 5 days) and thunderstorms cause flooding across much of southeast Texas; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; 19 deaths.

Tropical Storm Alberto July 1994. Remnants of slow-moving Alberto brought torrential 10-25 inch rains in 3 days, widespread flooding, and agricultural damage in parts of Georgia, Alabama, and panhandle of Florida; approximately $1.0 (1.2) billion damage/costs; 32 deaths.

Southeast Ice Storm February 1994. Intense ice storm with extensive damage in portions of TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, GA, SC, NC, and VA; approximately $3.0 (3.7) billion damage/costs; 9 deaths.

1993

California Wildfires Fall 1993. Dry weather, high winds, and wildfires in southern California; approximately $1.0 (1.3) billion damage/costs; 4 deaths.

Midwest Flooding Summer 1993. Severe, widespread flooding in central U.S. due to persistent heavy rains and thunderstorms; approximately $21.0 (26.7) billion damage/costs; 48 deaths.

Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1993. Southeastern U.S.; about $1.0 (1.3) billion damage/costs to agriculture; at least 16 deaths.

Storm/Blizzard March 1993. "Storm of the Century" hits entire eastern seaboard with tornadoes, high winds, and heavy snows (2-4 feet); $5.0-$6.0 (6.3-7.6) billion damage/costs; approximately 270 deaths.

1992

Nor'easter of 1992 December 1992. Slow-moving storm batters northeast U.S. coast, New England hardest hit; $1.0-$2.0 (1.3-2.6) billion damage/costs; 19 deaths.

Hurricane Iniki September 1992. Category 4 hurricane hits Hawaiian island of Kauai; about $1.8 (2.4) billion damage/costs; 7 deaths.

Hurricane Andrew August 1992. Category 5 hurricane hits Florida and Louisiana, high winds damage or destroy over 125,000 homes; approximately $27.0 (35.6) billion damage/costs; 61 deaths.

1991

Oakland Firestorm October 1991. Oakland, California firestorm due to low humidities and high winds; approximately $2.5 (3.5) billion damage/costs; 25 deaths.

Hurricane Bob August 1991. Category 2 hurricane--Mainly coastal North Carolina, Long Island, and New England; $1.5 (2.1) billion damage/costs; 18 deaths.

1990

Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana/Arkansas Flooding May 1990. Torrential rains cause flooding along the Trinity, Red, and Arkansas Rivers in TX, OK, LA, and AR; over $1.0 (1.4) billion damage/costs; 13 deaths.

1989

Hurricane Hugo September 1989. Category 4 hurricane devastates South and North Carolina with ~ 20-foot storm surge and severe wind damage after hitting Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; over $9.0 (13.9) billion damage/costs (about $7.1 (10.9) billion in Carolinas); 86 deaths (57--U.S. mainland, 29--U.S. Islands).

Northern Plains Drought Summer 1989. Severe summer drought over much of the northern plains with significant losses to agriculture; at least $1.0 (1.5) billion in damage/costs; no deaths reported.

1988

Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1988. 1988 drought in central and eastern U.S. with very severe losses to agriculture and related industries; estimated $40.0 (61.6) billion damage/costs; estimated 5,000 to 10,000 deaths (includes heat stress-related).

1986

Southeast Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1986. Severe summer drought in parts of the southeastern U.S. with severe losses to agriculture; $1.0-$1.5 (1.8-2.6) billion in damage/costs; estimated 100 deaths.

1985

Hurricane Juan October-November 1985. Category 1 hurricane--Louisiana and Southeast U.S.--severe flooding; $1.5 (2.8) billion damage/costs; 63 deaths.

Hurricane Elena August-September 1985. Category 3 hurricane--Florida to Louisiana; $1.3 (2.4) billion damage/costs; 4 deaths.

Florida Freeze January 1985. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $1.2 (2.2) billion damage to citrus industry; no deaths.

1983

Florida Freeze December 1983. Severe freeze central/northern Florida; about $2.0 (4.0) billion damage to citrus industry; no deaths.

Hurricane Alicia August 1983. Category 3 hurricane--Texas; $3.0 (5.9) billion damage/costs; 21 deaths.

Western Storms and Flooding 1982 - Early 1983. Storms and flooding related to El Nino, especially in the states of WA, OR, CA, AZ, NV, ID, UT, and MT; approximately $1.1 (2.2) billion in damage/costs; at least 45 deaths.

Gulf States Storms and Flooding 1982 - Early 1983. Storms and flooding related to El Nino, especially in the states of TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, GA, and FL; approximately $1.1 (2.2) billion in damage/costs; at least 50 deaths.

1980

Drought/Heat Wave June-September 1980. Central and eastern U.S.; estimated $20.0 (48.4) billion damage/costs to agriculture and related industries; estimated 10,000 deaths (includes heat stress-related).



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Catch the Wave: Asteroid-driven Tsunami in U.S. Eastern Seaboard's Future

By Tariq Malik
02 June 2003

A giant, 40 stories tall wave could one day drench the eastern United States, the result of an asteroid-driven tsunami. However seaside dwellers need not move just yet, the asteroid isn't due for another eight centuries.

Researchers in California have developed a computer simulation depicting the ocean impact of the asteroid 1950 DA, a half-mile wide (1.1-kilometer) space rock that swings uncomfortably close to Earth in 2880. Although the probability of such an impact is remote to say the least -- astronomers estimate it to be somewhere around 0.3 percent -- the computer model does give researchers insight into the destructive power of tsunamis caused by near-earth objects.
"You'd want to first decide how far away [from impact] the effects are going to be felt," Steven Ward, a research geophysicist at the University of California Santa Cruz (UCSC), said in a telephone interview. "And once you know that, maybe you could set up a zone of evacuation." According to Ward's research, about 120 million people live in coastal areas at elevations within 65 feet (20 meters) of sea level and just over a mile (two kilometers) of the ocean.

Ward is the lead author of the simulation study, which will appear in the June issue of the Geophysical Journal International.

Ward and co-author Erik Asphaug, an associate professor of earth sciences at UCSC, used 1950 DA as the asteroid in their simulation because of its history. Astronomers first discovered the asteroid in 1950 and tracked it for 17 days. The object was seen again in 2000, when researchers determined its radius and other characteristics. Its most recent Earth flyby last year led researchers to determine its future paths up through 2880, when it crosses the planet's orbit.

Asteroids are fascinating objects because they're the only disasters that you can prepare for, not like volcano eruptions, earthquakes or major storms," Asphaug told SPACE.com.

On March 16, 2880 the Earth's Atlantic Ocean is turned toward 1950 DA, and with 70-percent of the Earth covered in water an ocean impact would be the most likely to model.

In the simulation, 1950 DA slams into the Atlantic Ocean about 360 miles (579 kilometer) off the eastern coast of the United States. The asteroid, traveling at 38,000 miles an hour (61,155 kilometers per hour), is vaporized in the impact's 60,000-megaton blast and blows a hole in the ocean straight to the seafloor.

Seawater rushes into the cavity, which spans 11 miles in diameter and three miles deep (about 17 kilometers wide and five deep), and a halo of waves begin their journey outward from the impact site like overgrown ripples from a pond. Two hours after impact, waves 400 feet (121 meters) high hit the coastline from Cape Cod in Massachusetts to Cape Hatteras in North Carolina, and could ultimately penetrate more than two miles (about four kilometers) inland.

1950 DA is one of the larger asteroids that astronomers worry might hit the Earth. On the average, space rocks its size strike the earth every 100,000 years or so. Smaller asteroids up to 300 meters wide do so more frequently, about every 5,000 years, and so pose a larger tsunami danger for coastal residents, Ward said.

Asphaug, who led a NASA-sponsored workshop on asteroid hazards in September 2002, said that while not a lot can be done about larger, kilometer-sized objects that can cause global devastation, some action could be taken for smaller rocks. Observations, for example, could be fed into the already existing Pacific Tsunami Warning Center to track potential impacts.

"It takes time for these tsunamis to reach coastlines from the point of impact," Asphaug said, adding that once a satellite spots the flash of an impact, there will be a period of hours before the first big waves hit the shore. "It's possible to think that in 800 years, we might have enough technology to pinpoint which areas to evacuate and then do it."



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New Warning: U.S. Gulf Coast Faces High Tsunami Risk

By Michael Schirber
LiveScience
16 March 2005

Scientists issued a fresh warning today: The northern Caribbean may be at a high risk for a major tsunami, based on historical records that date back to Columbus' arrival in 1492.

A tsunami in this region could affect more than 35 million people on the islands of the Greater and Lesser Antilles and along the east and Gulf coasts of the United States. The danger has been highlighted in previous research.
The major source for past tsunamis in the northern Caribbean has been movement along the boundary between the North American and Caribbean tectonic plates. This fault line stretches 2,000 miles (3,200 kilometers) from Central America to the Lesser Antilles, brushing up against the north coast of Hispaniola (the island of Haiti and the Dominican Republic).

Nancy Grindlay and Meghan Hearne of the University of North Carolina and Paul Mann of the University of Texas identified 10 significant tsunamis that have resulted from movement along this plate boundary. Six of these caused loss of life.

In 1692, a tsunami destroyed Port Royal, Jamaica; another killed at least 10 Jamaicans on the island's south coast in 1780. The most recent tsunami in 1946 was triggered by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake in the Dominican Republic. It killed around 1,800 people.

Jian Lin of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution believes that this sort of historical analysis can indicate how frequent big tsunamis are in a geographic region. It also gives an estimate of how large such events can potentially be.

"The tectonic setting of the northern Caribbean is very similar to the Indian Ocean - except that the subduction zone is not as long," Lin told LiveScience in a telephone interview.

The subduction zone is where one plate dips below another. Lin, who was not involved in the recent research, explained that the longer a subduction zone is, the larger the earthquake that the zone is capable of producing.

"The [historical analysis] shows that the Caribbean zone is long enough to have greater than a magnitude 8.0 earthquake," Lin said.

In comparison, the Sumatra earthquake that unleashed last year's tsunami in the Indian Ocean had a magnitude of 9.3.

Besides the direct threat from plate movement, other research has shown that underwater landslides in the region - or even in the middle of the Atlantic - could trigger a giant tsunami.

"The recent devastating tsunami in the Indian Ocean has raised public awareness of tsunami hazard and the need for early warning systems in high-risk areas such as the Caribbean," Grindlay said in a statement.

There are meetings scheduled later this year to implement an Intra-Americas Sea Tsunami Warning Project, as approved by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. Such a warning system has been set up in the Pacific Ocean, and one is planned for the Indian Ocean. The United States has also proposed a global warning system.

A report by Grindlay and her colleagues will appear in the March 22 issue of Eos, the newspaper of the American Geophysical Union.

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the University of Puerto Rico SeaGrant program.



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Tsunamis in History

By LiveScience Staff

A sampling of the biggest, most destructive and deadliest tsunamis on record:

Nov. 1, 1755: After a colossal earthquake destroyed Lisbon, Portugal and rocked much of Europe, people took refuge by boat. A tsunami ensued, as did great fires. Altogether, the event killed more than 60,000 people.

Aug. 27, 1883: Eruptions from the Krakatoa volcano fueled a tsunami that drowned 36,000 people in the Indonesian Islands of western Java and southern Sumatra. The strength of the waves pushed coral blocks as large as 600 tons onto the shore.

Cont...

June 15, 1896: Waves as high as 100 feet (30 meters), spawned by an earthquake, swept the east coast of Japan. Some 27,000 people died.

April 1, 1946: The April Fools tsunami, triggered by an earthquake in Alaska, killed 159 people, mostly in Hawaii.

July 9, 1958: Regarded as the largest recorded in modern times, the tsunami in Lituya Bay, Alaska was caused by a landslide triggered by an 8.3 magnitude earthquake. Waves reached a height of 1,720 feet (576 meters) in the bay, but because the area is relatively isolated and in a unique geologic setting the tsunami did not cause much damage elsewhere. It sank a single boat, killing two fishermen.

May 22, 1960: The largest recorded earthquake, magnitude 8.6 in Chile, created a tsunami that hit the Chilean coast within 15 minutes. The surge, up to 75 feet (25 meters) high, killed an estimated 1,500 people in Chile and Hawaii.

March 27, 1964: The Alaskan Good Friday earthquake, magnitude between 8.4, spawned a 201-foot (67-meter) tsunami in the Valdez Inlet. It traveled at over 400 mph, killing more than 120 people. Ten of the deaths occurred in Crescent City, in northern California, which saw waves as high as 20 feet (6.3 meters).

Aug. 23, 1976: A tsunami in the southwest Philippines killed 8,000 on the heels of an earthquake.

July 17, 1998: A magnitude 7.1 earthquake generated a tsunami in Papua New Guinea that quickly killed 2,200.



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March is Earthquake Month, and Other Shaky 'Facts'

By Michael Schirber
LiveScience
09 March 2005

A glance at geologic statistics might lead one to believe March is earthquake month. After all, the two strongest recorded earthquakes in U.S. history occurred in this month.

A deeper look reveals the true randomness of the events, dispelling also myths about "earthquake weather" and early morning quake frequency. Location, however, is another story.

On March 28, 1964, Prince William Sound, Alaska, experienced a 9.2 magnitude event that killed 125 people and caused $311 million in property loss. On March 9, 1957, the Andreanof Islands, Alaska, felt a 9.1 temblor.

But the next three biggest U.S. earthquakes occurred in February, November, and December.
The largest earthquake ever measured globally - a magnitude 9.5 in Chile - was on May 22, 1960. And the recent tsunami-causing earthquake off the coast of Sumatra happened the day after Christmas last year. It was first put at magnitude 9.0 but later raised to 9.3.

"Earthquakes occur randomly throughout the world, as well as the U.S.," said Waverly Person, a spokesman for the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center.

Earthquake weather

There are claims that more earthquakes happen on hot, dry days - so-called "earthquake weather." But studies that have shown no tie between seismic activity and months or seasons.

The forces that drive weather are not likely to have much of an effect on the movement of continental plates several miles below the surface, geologists say.

Even the tide-causing gravity of the Moon and Sun apparently play no role in the onset of an earthquake. Scientists have looked for a seismic relationship to the tides, but nothing has been seen except for a small correlation with aftershocks in some volcanic regions.

Morning madness

Another misconception is that most rumblings occur in the morning. Although the likelihood of an earthquake is unrelated to the time of day, an earthquake could be more deadly - and therefore more memorable - at certain hours.

"In the early morning, most people are in their beds sleeping. You might have higher casualties with a lot of people in one place," Person told LiveScience.

As opposed to times, there are, of course, places that are more earthquake-prone than others. Alaska is one of the most seismically active regions in the world - experiencing a major earthquake (magnitude 7.0 or greater) almost every year, whereas no earthquakes of more than moderate intensity have occurred within the borders of North Dakota during historical times.



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Ominous Rumbling Under San Andreas Fault

By Michael Schirber
LiveScience
09 December, 2004

A continuous shaking from deep in the San Andreas Fault may foretell of future earthquakes, scientists announced today.

The tremors -- not really normal earthquakes, last for more than four minutes. They are "a kind of chatter" coming from depths of 12 to 24 miles below the surface, said Robert Nadeau, from the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory of the University of California.

Over a three-year period, Nadeau and his graduate student, David Dolenc, detected 114 of the events beneath the town of Cholame, CA. These faint rumblings originate up to five times deeper than the average earthquake on this section of the fault.


The geologists have observed a possible correlation between the tremors and the rate of small microquakes in the region.

"This is new information from an area deep down under the fault we have not been able to look at before," Nadeau said. "If these tremors are precursory to earthquakes, there is potential here for earthquake forecasting and prediction."

The town of Cholame is thought to have been the origin of the magnitude 8 Fort Tejon Earthquake of 1857. This was the last big quake to hit southern California, and some seismologists think the area is due for another, since the average time between big quakes is 140 years.

Although the study was no longer running at the time, a moderate, magnitude 6 earthquake erupted on Sept. 28, 2004, outside the city of Parkfield, which is 15 miles northwest of Cholame. Because this quake was near the tremor region, Nadeau believes it supports the tremor-quake relationship.


Parkfield describes itself as the "Earthquake Capital of the World" because for 20 years seismologists have been studying the fault-line that cuts through the city. Between the quakes in 1887 and 2004, the area has been hit by five other large events in 1881, 1901, 1922 and 1934.

Earthquake magnitudes are measured with seismographs and rated on the Richter scale:

* 2.5 or less: Usually not felt, but can be recorded by seismograph. 900,000 per year worldwide.
* 2.5 to 5.4: Often felt, but only causes minor damage. 30,000 per year.
* 5.5 to 6.0: Slight damage to buildings and other structures. 500 per year.
* 6.1 to 6.9: May cause a lot of damage in very populated areas. 100 per year.
* 7.0 to 7.9: Major earthquake. Serious damage. 20 per year.
* 8.0 or greater: Great earthquake. Can totally destroy communities near the epicenter. One every 5 to 10 years.

Small tremors have typically been ignored by seismologists, who are more interested in short bursts of activity rather than a sustained rumbling.

But tremors have been observed under volcanoes, and recently led to predictions of the eruption of Mount St. Helens in Washington State. They have also been discovered in Japan and the Pacific Northwest at sites called subduction zones, where one of the Earth's plates dips underneath another.

Nadeau and Dolenc's tremors are the first detected underneath a transform fault, which is where two plates scrape against each other in a horizontal direction. It had been thought that tremors result from fluids flowing deep underground, but Nadeau said that his findings challenge this theory.

"Transform faults like the San Andreas have no obvious source of fluid, so it's not clear what's causing the tremors," he said. "Either tremors don't need fluid, or there is another, unknown source of fluid, perhaps from the Earth's mantle."

By understanding this mechanism better, the researchers hope to uncover whether tremors really can predict earthquakes.

Nadeau and Dolenc describe their work today in the online version of the journal Science.




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2001: September 11

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2001: January - Opposition believes Saddam footage is bogus

TCM News Archive
6 January 2001

12:25:06 PM - An Iraqi opposition group has claimed that Saddam Hussein's televised address to the nation used doctored and pre-recorded film.

A spokesman for the London-based dissidents said they still believed the president was unwell and the footage was made before he was taken ill.

He said it was a normal government ploy to broadcast the same footage repeatedly and said he suspected from the Iraqi leader's clothes and the appearance of his face that the clip was old.
"There are many speeches that are recorded and used whenever the government wants," the spokesman said.

The broadcast - which went out on TV, radio and the internet - is being seen as an attempt to scotch rumours that the president recently suffered a stroke or heart attack. But there was little to indicate that the speech marking the 80th anniversary of Iraq's armed forces was delivered live.

The entire Iraqi political and military leadership - except Saddam - had earlier gathered in their olive green military uniforms for a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in central Baghdad to mark Iraq's Army Day.
Saddam made no reference in his broadcast to the rumours about his health. Instead, it was stuffed with rhetoric in which the president praised the Iraqi Army for being "brave, heroic, loyal, trustworthy and great" and praised Palestinians for their uprising against Israel.

He did not mention the election of George W Bush, whose father led the US during the Gulf War, or the continuing UN sanctions against Iraq.

Television footage of the president which was aired earlier this week - showing Saddam at a cabinet meeting and chatting to Egyptian actors - met with scepticism. Foreign Office Minister John Battle said: "The regime has a reputation for manipulating TV images, as we have seen before, and it's in the nature of this closed regime that the information to confirm otherwise is not available."

Dr Mowaffak Al'Rubaie, an Iraqi dissident based in the UK, told the BBC he had seen the cabinet meeting footage a fortnight earlier on Iraqi satellite TV and said Saddam was rumoured to have body doubles for making such appearances.



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2001: January - US faces 'Pearl Harbour in space'

TCM News Archive
12 Jan 2001

The next US Defence Secretary says the country faces another Pearl Harbour-style attack but this time on its space satellites.

Donald Rumsfeld believes Nasa should take the threat of an attack on its satellite communications more seriously and that its interests in space should be protected.

The warnings are made in a report just published by a government commission he headed.
The report says: "If the US is to avoid a 'space Pearl Harbour,' it needs to take seriously the possibility of an attack on US space systems."

The 1941 Japanese attack on US naval forces in Hawaii outraged the US and drew it into World War II. The commission stops short of recommending a fifth armed service dedicated to space security.




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2001: Plane crashes into World Trade Centre

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

1:48:59 PM

There are unconfirmed reports that a jet plane has crashed into the World Trade Centre Tower in New York.

There is a large plume of black smoke coming from the tower.

It is not yet clear if there are any casualties.




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2001: Explosion at World Trade Centre

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

1:55:33 PM

The top of the World Trade Centre has just exploded after a plane crashed into it.

There are flames billowing from the top of the tower and debris is falling to the streets below.

There is speculation that the fuselage of the plane has exploded in the building.




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2001: Second plane crashes into World Trade Centre

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

2:08:48 PM

A second plane has crashed into the second tower at World Trade Centre just minutes after another passenger plane had already crashed into the tower.

An explosion occurred as the plane crashed into the tower.




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2001: Third explosion at World Trade Centre

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

2:59:08 PM

A huge explosion has occurred at the second of the two twin towers hit by planes in New York.

The tower is now covered in smoke.




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2001: Pentagon evacuated due to fire

TCM
Breaking News
11 September 2001

2:41:05 PM

The Pentagon is being evacuated in expectation of a terrorist attack.

It is believed a fire has broken out in the building.

The White House has also been evacuated.

It is believed six people have died in the two crashes at the World Trade Centre and that the number will rise.

Thopusands of pieces of office paper was drifting over Brooklyn, three miles from the twin towers.




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2001: Reports of helicopter crashing into Pentagon

TCM
Breaking News Archive
11 Sept 2001

2:47:43 PM

There are reports that a helicopter has crashed into the Pentagon.

An eyewitness said that they saw the helicopter circle the building and after it disappeared behind it, an explosion occured.




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2001: Terrorist threats made against the White House

TCM Breaking News Archive
11 Sept 2001

2:52:26 PM

The FBI has evacuated the White House after they received what they said were "creditable threats" against the White House.

All airports across the US have been shut down.

Paul Begala, a Democratic consultant, said he witnessed a explosion near the Pentagon shortly after two planes crashed into World Trade Centre.

"It was a huge fireball, a huge, orange fireball," Begala said.

He said another witness told him a helicopter exploded.

Later a DFLP official denied responsibility for the attack.

The Chicago Stock Exchange has been evacuated.

Office paper from the damaged buildings has been found drifting over three
miles away in Brooklyn

Last terrorism attack on Feb. 26, 1993, killing six people and injured more
than 1,000 others.

In 1945, an Army Air Corps B-25, a twin-engine bomber, crashed into the 79th
floor of the Empire State Building in dense fog.

In Sarasota, Fla., President Bush was reading to children in a classroom at
9:05 a.m. when his chief of staff, Andrew Card, whispered into his ear.

The president briefly turned somber before he resumed reading.

Asked what he knew about the planes, Bush replied, "I'll talk about it
later."

There was no immediate word on injuries or fatalities in the twin disasters,
which happened shortly before 9 a.m. and then right around 9 a.m.




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2001: Fighter jets patrolling skies after Pentagon attack

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

6:40:29 PM

Fighter jets are patrolling the skies above Washington after a jet hijacked by terrorists struck the Pentagon.

The West Wing of White House was evacuated after the attack on the Pentagon.

An aircraft has crashed on a helicopter landing pad near the Pentagon, and the White House.

The Pentagon has taken a direct hit from an aircraft.

The nerve centre of the US military burst into flames and a portion of one side of the five-sided structure collapsed when the plane struck.

Secondary explosions were reported in the aftermath of the attack and great billows of smoke drifted skyward towards the Potomac River. Authorities immediately began deploying troops, including a regiment of light infantry.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, a large plane, believed to be a Boeing 747, has crashed about 80 miles (130 kilometres) southeast of Pittsburgh.

The fate of those aboard is not immediately known and it is not clear if the crash is related to the disasters elsewhere.

General Richard Myers, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says that prior to the crash into the Pentagon, military officials had been notified that another hijacked plane had been heading from the New York area to Washington.

He says he assumed that hijacked plane was the one that hit the Pentagon, though he could not be sure.




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2001: Car bombing outside of State Department

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

4:03:06 PM

The State Department was evacuated Tuesday due to a possible explosion or
fire amid a rash of explosions in New York and Washington.

A senior government official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the incident appeared connected with the two plane crashes at the World Trade Center, an explosion at the Pentagon and the evacuation of the White House.

"Something has happened at the State Department," the source said. "We don't know what yet. We hear it might have been a plane."




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2001: Car bomb explodes in Washington - Fifth Explosion in One Hour and a Half

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

3:42:43 PM

There are reports that a car bomb has exploded outside the US State Department in Washington.

This is the fifth explosion in an hour and a half in a spate of major terrorist attacks on the United States.

Tony Blair postponed his TUC speech in Brighton and spoke of the mass terrorism, saying it is "the greatest evil in our midst today".

He also expressed sympathy for President Bush and the American people.

Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip have phoned news headquarters in Jerusalem, strenuously denying responsibility for the attack.




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2001: Second aircraft hits Pentagon

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

4:05:16 PM

A second aircraft has crashed into the Pentagon building.

It is not known whether this plane was that which was hijacked from Boston airport a short time ago, the fourth such plane to be used in this major attack on the US.

Earlier, a small plane had slammed into the building and set it ablaze.

It is not yet possible to ascertain the number of dead or injured in the various attacks in America's biggest cities.

All flights to and from the US have been grounded, as have all transatlantic flights to and from Canada.




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2001:Pentagon in state of collapse - Hit by Two Planes

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

4:17:03 PM

Part of the Pentagon building outside Washington has collapsed.

It had been hit by two planes apparently hijacked by terrorists in Boston earlier today.

It is understood the building is evacuated.




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2001: September 11 - Part 2

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2001: Fears plane crashes were acts of terrorism

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

2:27:35 PM

FBI investigating reports of plane hijacking before World Trade Centre crashes.
The FBI told CNN that they have not yet established if it was a terrorist act.

The FBI told CNN that they have not yet established if it was a terrorist act.

A US Official has said that the crashes " appear to be acts of terrorism".

Two jet airliners crashed into the World Trade Centre in New York within minutes of each other today.
Witnesses were just describing the horror of the first impact when another passenger plane crashed into building, on the other side and below the first impact.

An eyewitness said the first plane appeared to hit one of the skyscraper's twin towers about 20 floors from the top.

He said he thought the plane was still embedded in the smashed and burning building.

Another he said it appeared that the first plane lined up on the tower before crashing.

Jeanne Yurman, told CNN she was watching TV when she heard what she thought was a sonic boom. "I thought it was Concorde," she said.
There was no immediate word on injuries or fatalities in the twin disasters, which happened shortly before 9 am (1300 BST) and then right around 9 am

The towers were struck by bombers in February 1993.

"The plane was coming in low and it looked like it hit at a slight angle," said Sean Murtagh, a CNN vice president.

Large holes were visible in sides of the 110 storey buildings, landmark twin towers.

The tops of the twin towers were obscured by the smoke.

Thousands of pieces of what appeared to be office paper came drifting over Brooklyn, about three miles from the tower, one witness said.

The centre bombing in February 1993, killing six people and injured more than 1,000 others.

In 1945, an Army Air Corps B-25, a twin-engine bomber, crashed into the 79th floor of the Empire State Building in dense fog.



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2001: Up to 800 possibly dead at Pentagon - "It was like a Cruise Missile" says witness

CNN
September 12, 2001

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Up to 800 people may have died Tuesday when a hijacked commercial airliner was crashed into the Pentagon, officials said.

Firefighters were still battling a fire on the west side of the 29-acre, 6 million-square-foot building late Tuesday, more than 12 hours after the crash. Washington hospitals reported 71 people injured, some severely, and another 100 to 800 were still listed as missing and possibly dead late Tuesday.

Despite the serious damage caused by the attack, the headquarters of the U.S. military will reopen Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said.

"The Pentagon is functioning. It will be in business tomorrow," Rumsfeld said late Tuesday from a Pentagon briefing room.
An American Airlines flight from Washington to Los Angeles crashed into the Pentagon with 64 passengers and crew aboard. The fuel-laden jet, which had just taken off from Washington's Dulles Airport, set the world's largest office building ablaze and forced thousands of employees to evacuate.

The attack occurred shortly after two other commercial jetliners were hijacked and flown into the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York. A fourth plane that was hijacked crashed in a wooded area in Pennsylvania.

Casualties were expected to be high, but Rumsfeld released no estimates Tuesday.

In addition to the "many dozens in the aircraft," he said, "there are a number of people that they have not identified by name, but have identified as being dead, and there are a number of casualties. The number has yet to be calculated, and it will not be a few."

The Pentagon suffered widespread damage on the building's fourth, fifth and sixth corridors, and the impact tore a gaping hole in one side of the building. Firefighters continued to battle the blaze on the building's west side Tuesday night, describing it as "contained" but not yet under control.

Rumsfeld was joined by Gen. Hugh Shelton, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Michigan Democrat Carl Levin; and Virginia Sen. John Warner, the committee's ranking Republican.

Shelton called the attacks "barbaric terrorism carried out by fanatics."

"I would tell you up front, I have no intentions of discussing today what comes next, but make no mistake about it, your armed forces are ready," Shelton said.

U.S. intelligence officials told CNN there were "good indications" that persons linked to Osama bin Laden -- the Saudi millionaire suspected in a number of anti-U.S. terror attacks -- may be responsible for these attacks.

Taliban officials in Afghanistan, where bin Laden is believed to be hiding, said they doubted he was capable of coordinating attacks of such magnitude and pledged to conduct their own investigation.

Debbie Weirerman, public information officer of the FBI office in Boston, said she couldn't confirm or deny a report in Wednesday's Boston Herald newspaper that authorities have identified at least five Arab men as suspects in the attacks launched from Logan International Airport.

But Peter Judge, public information officer at the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency, said the FBI seized a vehicle at the airport with "a lot of suspicious materials in it."

The Herald report also said that Arabic-language flight training manuals were found in a car in the airport's parking garage and said the two of the men were brothers, one a trained pilot. The Herald reported that at least two other suspects flew to Logan on Tuesday from Portland, Maine.

President Bush issued a brief statement Tuesday night, vowing, "We will find these people and they will suffer for taking on this nation." Bush, who was in Florida at the time of the attack, said the nation's military had been placed on "high-alert status." Rumsfeld would not disclose Tuesday whether U.S. military officials had any kind of warning of an attack.

The jet struck a section of the Pentagon that housed U.S. Army offices about 9:40 a.m. Tuesday. Among those aboard the jet was Barbara Olson, a conservative commentator who appeared frequently on CNN and the wife of U.S. Solicitor General Theodore Olson.

"It was like a cruise missile with wings, went right there and slammed into the Pentagon," Mike Walter, an eyewitness, told CNN. "Huge explosion, great ball of fire, smoke started billowing out, and then it was just chaos on the highway as people either tried to move around the traffic and go down either forward or backwards."
20,000 Pentagon staff evacuated

The more than 20,000 civilians and military men and women who work in the Pentagon streamed into the surrounding parking lots, driven by blue and white strobe alarm lights and wailing sirens. All federal office buildings were ordered closed.

Rumsfeld was uninjured. After the crash, he ran from his office and assisted some victims onto stretchers.

One witness told CNN she saw a commercial jet flying "too fast, too low" and then she saw an explosion at the building.

Lisa Burgess, a reporter for the Army newspaper Stars and Stripes, said she was walking in a corridor near the blast site and was thrown to the ground by the force of the blast.

Pentagon officials said the national military command center deep inside the building remained intact.
Navy deploys ships off both coasts

In the aftermath, helicopters patrolled the air space over the nation's capital. At one point, fighter jets scrambled to intercept what was reported to be a second aircraft headed toward the area. The second aircraft never appeared.

All U.S. military sites around the world have gone to ThreatCon Delta, which means that a terrorist attack has occurred or an attack at a specific location is likely, Pentagon officials said.

Two aircraft carriers left the Navy base in Norfolk, Virginia, to boost air defense for New York and Washington.

The Navy's Pacific Fleet has deployed an aircraft carrier, two guided missile cruisers, five destroyers and five frigates armed with missiles to protect the West Coast and Hawaii, according to a Navy official, who asked not to be identified.

And in the Persian Gulf, the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise -- which had been stationed in the Persian Gulf recently and relieved by the USS Carl Vinson -- has been told to stay in the region, Pentagon officials told CNN.

-- CNN Military Affairs Correspondent Jamie McIntyre and CNN.com writer Matt Smith contributed to this report.



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2001: America reeling in horror and shock

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

"The memory of Pearl Harbor was offered up again and again, with all its images of sneak attacks, national honor and war.

"This is our second Pearl Harbor, right here in the nation's capital and New York City," a somber Sen. John W. Warner, R-Va., said as he stood in a capitol park after his office building was evacuated."
7:27:57 PM

The American nation reeled in horror and security measures spun into effect as the work day began with a series of plane crashes that tore through the World Trade Center and left smoke billowing from the Pentagon.

"I'm very afraid. I don't feel safe," said Charlin Sims, taking a cigarette break outside her office in downtown Columbus, Ohio. "I want to hug my son."

Bells at Trinity Episcopal Church in Columbus rang for the victims, and flags were lowered to half-staff in many states. Nationwide, crowds gathered around television sets in airports, bars, hotel lounges. The space station commander could see the smoke rising above New York.

"My whole family's from Boston, and two are always flying," said Diane Morse, dialing her cell phone in tears in downtown Cleveland. "We always fly American." Relatives and friends worked at the twin towers, she said.

Government offices from coast to coast launched emergency preparedness operations, even as questions were raised about how what appeared to be a well-coordinated terrorist attack could be carried out.

"It's sort of like a terrorism movie you see on television," said terrorism expert Michael Gunter at Tennessee Technological University in Cookeville.

Other planes were apparently hijacked and crashed, including one that crashed near Pittsburgh.

The memory of Pearl Harbor was offered up again and again, with all its images of sneak attacks, national honor and war.

"This is our second Pearl Harbor, right here in the nation's capital and New York City," a somber Sen. John W. Warner, R-Va., said as he stood in a capitol park after his office building was evacuated.

Also speaking of Pearl Harbor were an airplane passenger stranded in Orlando, military veterans, a Wall Street worker fleeing the smoke and debris of the attack itself.

"Someone is trying to make a serious statement and I hope we do likewise," said Scott Gilmore at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

A World War II veteran in Nashville for a reunion of the U.S.S. Intrepid aircraft carrier was incensed. "I feel like going to war again. No mercy," said Felix Novelli, a New Yorker with friends who work at the World Trade Center. "We have to come together like '41, go after them."

"We're like everyone else, in shock," said Carol Windham, a spokeswoman at Birmingham International Airport in Alabama. Planes were grounded nationwide.

Heightened security went into effect at government and corporate offices - at the Army's main germ warfare defense laboratory in Frederick, Md., city offices in Colorado and oil refineries in Louisiana.

Monuments like the Gateway Arch in St. Louis were closed.

"I don't think there's any place in America right now that's not at risk," said Andrew Hudson, a city spokesman in Denver, where emergency preparedness officials gathered in the basement of City Hall.

Students at Kansas State University in Manhattan skipped class to gather at television sets, sometimes with professors' blessing.

"It seems ridiculous that I would stand in front of my class talking about Plato when something this important is going on," said Laurie Bagby, an associate professor of political science.

In a Philadelphia hotel lounge, where dozens of people gathered to watch television coverage, a visitor from Texas wept.

"I can't believe what I'm seeing. I never thought I would see anything like this in my lifetime," said 20-year-old Beverly Evans of Dallas. "How can we stop something like this from happening?"




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2001: Explosions in Kabul not US retaliation strike

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

11:26:32 PM

It has been reported that the explosions in Kabul, Afghanistan, were not part of an United States retaliation.

The explosions have rocked Kabul for the last hour.

Reports say the attacks in Kabul are a part of on-going civil war in Afghanistan.




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2001: Location of second United Airlines plane unknown

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

6:42:54 PM

Two United Airlines jetliners crashed this morning, one in western Pennsylvania and the second at a location the airline did not immediately disclose.

A total of 110 people were aboard the two planes, the airline said.

One plane, United Flight 93, crashed north of the Somerset County airport, a small airport about 80 miles southeast of Pittsburgh.

The Pennsylvania crash followed the crash of two planes into the World Trade Center in New York City.

American Airlines initially said its planes crashed into the twin towers but later said that was unconfirmed.

"It shook the whole station," said Bruce Grine, owner of Grine's Service Center in Shanksville, about 2½ miles from the crash.

"Everybody ran outside, and by that time the fire whistle was blowing."




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2001: World Trade Centre building number seven collapses

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

10:29:51 PM

The World Trade Centre building number seven has just collapsed. It was 47 stories high.

Two planes crashed into the twin towers of the trade centre around 2pm Irish time. Since then, fires and explosions have ripped through the complex.

Fire crews are still not entering the centre of the explosions site due to the continuing structural instability.

More than eight hours after the explosions, there are still no firmer estimates as to the number of victims. It is known however that some 50,000 people worked in the World Trade Centre and tens of thousands more visit it every day.

A further 266 passengers on board the four crashed passenger planes are presumed dead.





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2001: United Airlines concerned about fourth plane

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

4:59:51 PM

American Airlines issued a statement saying it had "lost" two aircraft - Flight 11, with 92 people aboard, and Flight 77 from Washington to Los Angeles, carrying 64 people.

In Pennsylvania, United Airlines Flight 93, a Boeing 757 en route from Newark, N.J., to San Francisco, crashed about 80 miles southeast of Pittsburgh.

The fate of those aboard was not immediately known and it was not clear if the crash was related to the disasters elsewhere.

In a statement, the airline also said it was deeply concerned about another plane, Flight 175, a Boeing 767 bound from Boston to Los Angeles.




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2001: Hijack passenger Barbara Olsen rang husband from plane

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

10:05:04 PM

One of the passengers on the airplanes hijacked and crashed by terrorists in the US today phoned her husband to tell him her flight had been hijacked.

Barbara Olsen, wife of US Solicitor General Theodore Olsen, rang him on her mobile phone twice to say hijackers wielding knives had taken control of the plane.

The hijackers, she said, forced passengers and crew to the back of the plane.

Ms Olsen was on her way to meet her husband to celebrate his birthday when the flight was hijacked.

She and all 266 passengers on board the four hijacked flights are presumed dead.




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2001: Pittsburgh plane may have been shot down

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

4:28:14 PM

A Boeing 767 has crashed near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

It is not known if this air crash is related to the three other jets used in today's spate of terrorist attacks on the US.

The plane came down just north of the Somerset county airport, about 80 miles south east of Pittsburgh.

US anti-aircraft fighters are in place - unconfirmed reports say this plane was shot out of the sky by US defence.

It remains unclear whether this aircraft was the fourth to be hijacked in Boston earlier today.




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2001: Spectre of 'World War Three' raised

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

8:57:19 PM

Concern that the US could "over-react" to the outrage was voiced by a British terrorism expert.

Mike Yardley raised the spectre of "World War Three" in the worst-case scenario.

He said: "If the US discovers that a state was in some way supporting this group of radicals, it could unleash a terrible retaliation that would play right into the hands of the terrorists."

That state could then be supported by others, such as Iraq, he said, precipitating a world war.

"They are probably planning on the Americans over-reacting and George W Bush is exactly the man to do that," said Mr Yardley. "It could be World War Three."




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2001: Taliban rulers condemn attacks on US

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

6:46:49 PM

Afghanistan's hardline Taliban rulers condemned the devastating terrorist attacks in New York and Washington on Tuesday and rejected suggestions that Osama bin Laden could be behind them.

"We never support terrorism. We too are targets of terrorism," Abdul Hai Muttmain, the Taliban's spokesman in the southern city of Kandahar, told The Associated Press in a telephone interview.

After the attacks, a London-based Arab journalist said followers of bin Laden warned three weeks ago that they would carry out a "huge and unprecedented attack" on U.S. interests.
Abdel-Bari Atwan, editor of the Al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper, said he received a warning from Islamic fundamentalists close to bin Laden, but did not take the threat seriously.

"They said it would be a huge and unprecedented attack but they did not specify," Atwan said in a telephone interview in London.

"We usually receive this kind of thing. At the time we did not take the warnings seriously as they had happened several times in the past and nothing happened. "This time it seems his people were accurate and meant every word they said."

Atwan, who interviewed bin Laden in 1996 and has since maintained contacts with his followers, said he believed the attack on the World Trade Center in New York was the work of "an Islamic fundamentalist group" close to bin Laden.

But Muttmain, who is the spokesman for the Taliban's reclusive leader Mullah Mohammed Omar and one of the most senior Taliban officials, dismissed allegations that bin Laden could be behind the attacks in the United States.

"Such a big conspiracy, to have infiltrated in such a major way is impossible for Osama," said Muttmain. He said bin Laden does not have the facilities to orchestrate such a major assault within the United States.

Afghanistan's Taliban rulers, who espouse a harsh brand of Islamic law, have resisted U.S. demands to hand over bin Laden, indicted in the United States on charges of masterminding the bombings of two U.S. Embassies in East Africa in 1998 that killed 224 people, including 12 Americans.

After the attacks in East Africa, Washington retaliated with a blistering missile attack in August 1998, sending more than 70 Tomahawk cruise missiles into eastern Afghanistan apparently targeting training camps operated by bin Laden.

The attacks killed about 20 followers of bin Laden's but the exiled Saudi millionaire escaped unhurt. Since then he has been forced by the Taliban rulers to stop giving interviews and making statements.



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2001: Bush resolves to 'hunt down' terrorists

TCM News Archive
11 Sept 2001

6:07:57 PM

President George Bush has said that the United States will "hunt down those responsible for these cowardly attacks"

"I want to reassure the American people that the full resources of the Federal Government are working to assist local authorities to save lives and to help the victims of this horrible act. The resolve of the United States is being tested. Make no mistake - we will pass this test."

"The US will hunt down those reponsible for these cowardly acts."




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2001: Pentagon Crash Highlights a Radar Gap - Limited System in One Area Made Flight 77 Invisible to Controllers for Half-Hour

By Don Phillips
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, November 3, 2001

The airliner that slammed into the Pentagon on Sept. 11 disappeared from controllers' radar screens for at least 30 minutes -- in part because it was hijacked in an area of limited radar coverage. That gap cost military and aviation officials valuable warning time, according to officials and other sources.

Investigators are still piecing together the facts in the hijacking of American Airlines Flight 77. But the sector of limited radar coverage at an Indianapolis "en route center" helps explain one of its mysteries: Why did the Boeing 757 simply disappear from radar screens for a half-hour or more, turn aroundover southern Ohio and get back into Washington airspace before anyone noticed it or knew that it had been hijacked?
It's an especially intriguing question because controllers in New York, Boston and Cleveland suspected or knew quickly that three other airliners had been hijacked. They tracked two of them on a backup radar system as one slammed into the World Trade Center and another crashed in Pennsylvania.

They searched, without success, for the third, which also plowed into the World Trade Center.

In the case of American Flight 77, it is unclear whether additional warning time would have changed anything. Military jets were scrambled after controllers became aware of the hijacked aircraft, but the fighters could not get to the Washington area in time.

Thirty minutes' extra warning would have allowed the jets to arrive in Washington before Flight 77, but it is unclear what action they were prepared to take.

The aircraft, traveling from Dulles International Airport to Los Angeles, was hijacked sometime between 8:50 a.m. -- when air traffic controllers made their last routine contact with the pilot -- and 8:56, when hijackers turned off the transponder, which reports the plane's identity, altitude and speed to controllers' radar screens.

The airliner crashed into the Pentagon at 9:41 a.m., about 12 minutes after controllers at Dulles sounded an alert that an unidentified aircraft was headed toward Washington at high speed.

The answers to the mystery of the aircraft's disappearance begin with the fact that the hijacking took place in an area served by only one type of radar, FAA officials confirmed.

Although this radar is called a "secondary" system, it is the type used almost exclusively today in air traffic control. It takes an aircraft's identification, destination, speed and altitude from the plane's transponder and displays it on a controller's radar screen.

"Primary" radar is an older system. It bounces a beam off an aircraft and tells a controller only that a plane is aloft -- but does not display its type or altitude. The two systems are usually mounted on the same tower.

Primary radar is normally used only as a backup, and is usually turned off by controllers handling aircraft at altitudes above 18,000 feet because it clutters their screens. All aircraft flying above 18,000 feet are required to have working transponders.

If a plane simply disappears from radar screens, most controllers can quickly switch on the primary system, which should display a small plus sign at the plane's location, even if the aircraft's transponder is not working.

But the radar installation near Parkersburg, W. Va., was built with only secondary radar -- called "beacon-only" radar. That left the controller monitoring Flight 77 at the Indianapolis center blind when the hijackers apparently switched off the aircraft's transponder, sources said.

The airspace controlled by each of the FAA's 20 "en route" centers is further divided into a number of sectors, with separate controllers handling each sector. Flight 77 was flying through a sector in the eastern portion of Indianapolis's airspace when it was hijacked.

Sources said the location of the hijacking is likely just a coincidence, although there is a remote possibility that the hijackers knew where to turn off the transponder.

There are a number of locations across the interior of the United States that operate solely with secondary radars. Until Sept. 11, it was the written policy of the FAA to begin turning off some older primary radars as they broke down or came due for expensive maintenance.

The more modern secondary radar was considered sufficient for high-altitude navigation as the FAA began switching to satellite-based navigation systems over the coming decades. FAA officials said no primary radars had been turned off yet, and the events of Sept. 11 have reversed the policy.

Officials acknowledged that several other factors contributed to the lack of information about Flight 77, which killed 189 people when it hit the Pentagon.

- Unlike at least two of the other aircraft, whose pilots apparently held radios open so controllers could hear the hijackers, there was only silence from Flight 77.

- In the case of the two planes that hit the World Trade Center, the Boston en route center handed off the climbing planes to the New York Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) facility, an FAA official said. TRACONs control lower-altitude airspace, and controllers in them routinely monitor both primary and secondary radar.

Also, as soon as it became known that airliners were disappearing from radar screens, controllers in the New York and Boston "en route" sectors turned on their primary radar. That left the Northeast blanketed with both types of radar.

- Alerts and groundings of aircraft on Sept. 11 came minutes too late to help find Flight 77. The aircraft disappeared just nine minutes after the FAA was notified that a plane had hit the World Trade Center, and 12 minutes before the second plane struck, a period of general confusion.

An alert to controllers to watch for planes disappearing from radar or changing to unauthorized courses did not go out until 22 minutes after Flight 77 disappeared, when it was at least halfway back to Washington.

- When they reconstructed Flight 77's path, investigators determined that it was picked up by some distant radars, but none that were available to the Indianapolis controller, FAA officials said.

As the airliner sped east, controllers handling other sectors of high-altitude airspace in the Indianapolis center and the Washington center, at Leesburg, did not notice it, sources said. As usual, they were not monitoring primary radar, either. The two centers cover large areas of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic areas.

With no signal on their radar screens, controllers did not realize that Flight 77 had reversed direction. At 9:09 a.m., unable to reach the plane by radio, the Indianapolis controller reported a possible crash, sources said.

The first time that anyone became aware an aircraft was headed at high speed toward Washington was when the hijacked flight began descending and entered airspace controlled by the Dulles International Airport TRACON facility, an aviation source said.

The first Dulles controller noticed the fast-moving plane at 9:25 a.m. Moments later, controllers sounded an alert that an aircraft appeared to be headed directly toward the White House. It later turned and hit the Pentagon.

FAA spokeswoman Laura Brown noted that the Indianapolis controller properly followed all procedures in effect before Sept. 11. He or she assumed an electrical power failure and made every possible attempt to contact the plane. In the meantime, the controller cleared other aircraft from the plane's presumed flight path.

Those procedures changed, effectively, 22 minutes after Flight 77 disappeared from radar, when the FAA Command Center -- reacting to the World Trade Center crashes -- told controllers nationwide to be alert for planes dropping from radar or making unauthorized course changes.

Today, controllers would alert supervisors, who likely would call for military aircraft to search for the missing plane.



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2001: Andrey Kosyakov: "Sequential acts of terrorism in THE USA will be carried out by Wednesday or Thursday of next week."

By Sterkin, Philipp
on 14 September 2001

Acts of terrorism carried out on 11 September in America, and their consequences are commented upon in an interview with Andrey Kosyakov, former assistant to the chairman of the Russian Congress, a specialist in International Security.


What suggests that terrorism in THE USA was planned well in advance?

First, the conspirators possessed the professional skill to fly an aircraft. There had to be at least four of them with substitutes on hand in the event one of them failed. There is a high probability that the hijacking of an aircraft will fail, thus there had to be stand-by hijackers and/or pilots in this eventuality.

In the second place, all participants in the operation were ready to sacrifice themselves, and such individuals are not easy to find.

Finally, the departure times of the aircraft from four different points were coordinated minute by minute. This means that the routes and timing were known well in advance, and these particular flights were selected specifically for their routes and schedule.

All of this is sufficiently complicated to necessitate a long period of planning.

And how long, in your opinion, would it take to plan something like this? How large an organization would it require? Could, for example, the Red Army carry out such an operation? Some analysts say that only a National organization could do this.

As far as the time of preparation is concerned, it would require months. And such an organization must be very powerful. But, the participation of a National organization, such as a government of a country, is very doubtful.

I assure you that National resources have not been used here. No secret service would risk their operatives in this way. They spend a lot of time and money training their agents. However, if President Bush had been the target, then one would suspect a secret service of some organization. But here, the target was different: civilians.

As for the Red Army, it doesn't fit for one simple reason: it consists of mainly orientals and it is too easy to distinguish Japanese from Americans.

So, what do you conclude from all this?

You see, analyzing this situation, I was struck by one significant fact: it is known that there were telephone calls from the plane. One of the calling persons was a professional journalist. And yet, not one of the calling individuals said that they were being hijacked by "moslem terrorists." There was, apparently, nothing unusual about the appearance of the hijackers. There was no attempt to describe them. No one said: "Moslem terrorists have hijacked the plane," which would have logically been the first comment by this journalist IF it was apparent that the hijackers were "foreign." There was obviously nothing unusual about them in terms of appearance, accent, pronunciation, or other similar factors.

But, secret organizations could hide these things, couldn't they?

All these calls were private. And even the FBI was not able to suppress the fact that these calls took place. So, the conclusion which comes to mind, is that the external appearance of the hijackers was in no way different from the other passengers. Only in such cases would the communicants indentify the hijackers in a shorthand way. This suggests that the hijackers were European in appearance.

There is also the suspicious fact that the conspirators left a huge "clue" in the leased automobile at the airport with a copy of the Koran and instructions for flying a plane in Arabic.

Now look, not one organization claimed responsibility. This means that the terrorists want to hide their identity. With every other aspect of total control and professionalism, how could they make such a mistake? This does not compute with all the rest of the perfection of the operation.

All this says that the criminals want to create a false track. In this way, the secret services have been induced very cleverly to look for "Moslem terrorists. "

But indeed the practice of self-sacrifice is typical to the Moslem culture?

You are completely right. But who told you that those who died were not Moslems? This way we can narrow the radius of our search. On the basis of this information which we have, by analysis, we may come to the consclusion that those who did it were Americans or Europeans who were followers of radical Islam. They were manipulated so that the true criminals will be thus spared for follow-up actions. It is completely clear that this is a multi-phase operation.

That means that you do think that there will be new terrorist acts?

Unfortunately, it seems to me, it is necessary to be prepared for more terrorism, in another form, but with equal effectiveness. According to the clues that we have, ships can be used to ram dams. Imagine, if you will, a passenger ship or a tanker with 200,000 tons of oil hijacked and rammed into a dam? It will flood the cities downriver with populations in the millions, with burning oil floating on a flood.

Another variant: There are railroad crossings under the Hudson river. This can be exploded from above or below, which would flood the subway.

Are you saying that these actions will take place in America?

Yes. In the first place, the terrorists will want to confirm their superiority. In the second place, remember that, besides the use of the aircraft as weapons, there was also a car bomb. So, what would prevent the terrorists from blowing up a few more cars in Europe if they intend to act globally?

No, it seems that the target is precisely America; precisely civilians.

But, we remember that some analysts were claiming that if George Bush was in the White House on September 11, then the aircraft would have been aimed at the White House instead of the Pentagon.

This is highly improbable. In that case the White House or the Pentagon, but not peaceful population would be the first targets. Indeed after a first successful terrorist act, the chances of success for the rest fall. You see that the last action did fail in the crash of the aircraft in Pittsburgh. It was most certainly shot down. However hard it is to admit, this was the correct thing to do.

So it is clear that the main targets are civilians. There is this formula that is part of the mentality of terrorists: the civilian population in the democratic countries are responsible for the actions of their government. The terrorists accept and use this formula. Therefore, the next terrorist acts will follow the same pattern. Obviously, they will occur on Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Why? I don't want to explain the terrorist's logic. But it is based on a certain sense of the "rightness" of the thing.

But I would like to repeat this: the fact that no terrorists are claiming responsibility, tells us that they will kill again and again until the next stage of global conflict is achieved. This is precisely the goal of these actions. Only then will they reveal their identity in order to get followers.

How could the special services OF THE USA fail to detect such a terrorist act?

I will give two examples. Half a year ago Israeli reconnaissance carried out studies through the use of aerial targets for conducting terrorism. It is certain that the Americans had access to these studies. But it seems to not have entered their minds to apply this information in defensive ways.

And other - in March of 1991 in our office sat Korzhakov, and we told him about the situation leading to the September government coup. We predicted that everything would occur in September. Everything actually occurred, exactly following our scenario, only it happend one month earlier: August. No one paid any attention. This means that when there are predictions of scenarios that seem to be improbable, no one takes them seriously, especially the secret services. That is why Putin says that what is needed is a union of all secret services of all nations.

What is the probability that the American secret services will succeed in finding the leader of this operation, or that they simply will present to society a fake?

Very high. There are people, there are apartments where they were located, which means, there are traces, certainly. Following these traces, one may find the leader.

And who this? Ben Laden?

Hardly. Yes, there was the interception of his conversation with someone, where they reported to him the destruction of two targets.This was seen as indirect confirmation of his participation. But he is not an ideologist. He is too well known. And the one who organized all of this is too smart to be noticed. Ever.



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