
The caldera, also known as the Phlegraean Fields, is home to about 500,000 people who would be at risk in the event of an eruption. The caldera stretches about 9 miles (15 kilometers) in diameter and formed in a massive eruption 40,000 years ago. Other, smaller eruptions have happened since, including an explosive one in 1528 that built Monte Nuovo, a 433-foot (132 meters) cinder cone.
"Our paper identifies when the system is likely to reach a breaking point, but it cannot determine what will happen at that breaking point with the current data," said study first author Davide Zaccagnino, a postdoctoral researcher who studies geological hazards at the Southern University of Science and Technology in Guangdong, China.











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