When is a case not a case?
Since the start of the COVID pandemic I have watched almost everyone get mission critical things wrong. In some ways this is not surprising. Medical terminology is horribly imprecise, and often poorly understood. In calmer times such things are only of interest to research geeks like me. Were they talking about CVD, or CHD?
However, right now, it really, really, matters. Specifically, with regards to the term COVID 'cases.'
Every day we are informed of a worrying rise in COVID cases in country after country, region after region, city after city. Portugal, France, Leicester, Bolton. Panic, lockdown, quarantine. In France the number of reported cases is now as high as it was as the peak of the epidemic. Over 5,000, on the first of September.
But what does this actually mean? Just keep to the focus on France for a moment. On March 26
th, just before their deaths peaked, there were 3,900 hundred 'cases'. Fourteen days later, there were 1,400 deaths. So, using a widely accepted figure, which is a delay of around two weeks between diagnoses and death, 36% of cases died.
Comment: From Channel 3000: