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Hiliter

Putin sets condition for Ukraine ceasefire

Burnt equipment in Uglegorsk.
© RIABurnt equipment in Uglegorsk. In the background, a convoy of buses from the DPR is heading to Debaltsevo to evacuate local residents from the combat zone.
Hostilities can only be suspended if "irreversible" steps are taken by Kiev, Vladimir Putin has said

A ceasefire between Moscow and Kiev can only be agreed if Ukraine takes certain "irreversible" steps that would be "acceptable" for Russia, President Vladimir Putin has said. Otherwise, a cessation of hostilities would be used by Kiev to rearm itself and get ready to continue the conflict, he added.

Comment:
From the same source:
4 Jul, 2024 12:15
'Istanbul deal' could be used for future talks with Kiev - Putin
The unsigned draft focused on Ukraine's neutrality and offered the country security guarantees

Moscow and Kiev could use a tentative agreement reached during talks in Istanbul early in the Ukraine conflict as a basis for further negotiations, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.

The Russian leader was referring to a draft document that was on the verge of being formally signed in the Turkish capital in the spring of 2022. He said last year that under its terms, Ukraine would have committed to "permanent neutrality," receive certain security guarantees and downsize its military.

Moscow claims that the talks were derailed by then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who allegedly advised Kiev to "keep fighting." Johnson has denied the accusation, however staff who were close to Vladimir Zelensky at time admit he had an influential role.

Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Thursday, Putin reiterated that Russia - unlike Ukraine, which he said refused to engage with Moscow on direct orders from the West - has never closed the door to peace talks.

"The Istanbul agreements... have not gone away, they were initialed by the head of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, which obviously means that Ukraine was quite satisfied with them," he said, thanking Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for helping to broker the deal.
"These agreements remain on the table and could serve as the basis for continuing those talks."
Kiev has refused to hold direct talks with the current leadership in Moscow since the autumn of 2022, after four of its former regions voted overwhelmingly to join Russia. In June, however, Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky said that the two countries could negotiate via intermediaries.

Last month, Putin said that Russia was ready to immediately open peace talks with Ukraine if it withdraws troops from Donbass and two of its other former regions, and commits to neutral status. He added that any final deal should be recognized in Western capitals and pave the way to lifting sanctions against Russia. Both Kiev and its Western backers have dismissed the offer.

Meanwhile, Zelensky has been promoting his 'peace formula' demanding that Russia withdraw its troops from the territories Kiev claims as its own and the establishment of a tribunal to prosecute Moscow for alleged war crimes. Russia has rejected the plan as divorced from reality.
The Minsk agreements were with the knowledge of both the co-signers, Germany and France, and in a larger context the US and NATO used as an opportunity to build up the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian Government never intended to fulfil their obligations. Add to this that the Ukrainian Constitution was changed in 2019 to obligate the President and Government to work for full membership of NATO and the EU. This ties in with US global interests: The empire needs resources: Ukraine is a 'gold mine' - US senator

If the sanctions from the EU and the NATO states against Russia would have to be lifted as a result of an agreement, layer upon layer would have to be peeled off. For now EU proudly passed on June 24, 2024 the 14th package since February 2022. For an overview of current EU sanctions against Russia, see this link to the EU Sanctions Map, but passing sanctions against Russia is a recurrent theme, see this paper: European Union's sanctions regime on the Russian Federation from 2014 to 2022. For a timeline of US and EU sanctions between 2014 and September 2018, see also this page.

At the moment ceasefire, negotiations and agreements are a ways off.


Network

Belarus joins the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)

Heads of state and government of SCO member states attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.
© Sputnik / Sergey SavostyanovHeads of state and government of SCO member states attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Belarus has become the tenth member of the bloc based around Russia-China-India cooperation

Belarus has officially become a full-fledged member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an economic and security bloc covering most of Eurasia and accounting for more than 20% of global GDP.

Membership documents were signed during the opening of the organization's summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Thursday. The announcement was made by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose country is chairing the SCO in 2024. He noted that Belarus "completed all the necessary procedures on the way to full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in a short period of time."

Founded in 2001, the SCO includes India, Iran, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and now Belarus, with several other countries playing the role of observers. The bloc's goals are to strengthen relations between member states and promote cooperation in the political, economic, scientific, cultural, and educational fields.

Comment: Belarus borders besides Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, with the last three being members of NATO, while Ukraine is the arena for the NATO proxy war with Russia. This situation has probably been well considered by the SCO.

See also:


Chess

Russia-China relations 'best ever' - Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping
© Sergey Guneev / SputnikRussian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands during their meeting on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, July 3, 2024
Moscow's strategic partnership with Beijing is a global "stabilizing factor", the Russian president has said

Moscow and Beijing are building relations based on equality and mutual respect in the interests of their people, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said during a meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Comment:
From the same source:
3 Jul, 2024 17:46
Shanghai Cooperation Organization is bedrock of multipolar world - Putin
The SCO has been strengthening its role on the global stage, according to the Russian president

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is expanding to become a power center in a world that is evolving towards multipolarity, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.

Putin made the statement during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday at the SCO summit in Astana, Kazakhstan.

The members of the SCO account for some 20% of global GDP. The grouping was founded in 2001 by China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Iran became the newest member of the organization last year, after India and Pakistan joined in 2017.

"I would like to recall that our countries were behind the creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization," Putin told Xi.

The Russian leader said that with the expansion of the SCO participants pool, the organization has "strengthened its role as one of the key pillars of a fair multipolar world order."

Putin noted that Belarus is about to enter the SCO, becoming the tenth full member.

SCO Secretary General Zhang Ming said last month that with Belarusian accession to the group, the number of SCO member states will reach a "historic double-digit breakthrough."

The secretary general emphasized that after more than 20 years of development, the SCO has transformed from a regional mechanism for meetings of heads of state into a major, comprehensive international organization.

Currently, 14 countries hold SCO dialogue-partner status, allowing them to participate in the organization's specialized events at the invitation of its members.

In May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters that Algeria had applied to become a dialogue partner of the SCO. According to the minister, Laos has also submitted an application. He said both countries would be eligible for SCO membership once they have attained both dialogue-partner and observer status.
The SCO was founded on June 15, 2001 but was preceded by the Shanghai Five formed in 1996 consisting of The People's Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. In the new structure of SCO, Uzbekistan was included. 2001 was the year that saw the beginning of the US led campaign in Afghanistan, which borders four of the six founding nations.

See also:


Light Sabers

Hezbollah launches barrage of rockets at Israel after top commander killed, IDF responds with even more airstrikes

Hezbollah Israel Lebanon
© Taher Abu Hamdan/XinhuaMuhammad Nimah Nasser is at least the third senior commander killed in cross-border fighting since October. Smoke rises from rockets fired by Hezbollah at Israeli sites in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, as seen from Marjeyoun, Lebanon, on July 3, 2024.
Hezbollah says a top commander has been killed in an Israeli attack in southern Lebanon, at least the third high-ranking official in the group to be killed in almost nine months of cross-border fighting that has sparked fears of wider regional escalation.

The Lebanese armed group on Wednesday said that Muhammad Nimah Nasser, also known as "Hajj Abu Naameh", had been killed. The Iran-aligned group later said it had launched 100 katyusha rockets targeting Israeli military positions.

The announcement of Nasser's death on the group's Telegram did not provide the location, but a source previously told Al Jazeera that a commander had been killed in the Hosh area in Tyre in southern Lebanon. A source close to the group confirmed to the AFP news agency that Nasser had been killed in the Tyre attack.

Comment: A report from Xinhua states that: "The IDF is currently striking launch posts in southern Lebanon," read the statement.

Footage and details on Hezabollah's retaliation

BREAKING:

🇱🇧🇮🇱 Starting two hours ago, Hezbollah launched a huge wave of attacks on Israel

The entire occupied Golan Heights was under fire from hundreds of Hezbollah missiles. Dozens of settlements along the border, including the city of Nahariyya, were hit by suicide drones.

Hezbollah official statement:

In support of the Palestinian people in Gaza, and as a response to the Israeli assassination of our commander Hajj Abu Nimah, we targeted with over 200 missiles:

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's 91st Division, located in the Ayelet Barracks.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's 7th Armored Brigade, located in the Katsaviya Barracks.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the Armored Battalion of the IDF's 7th Brigade, located in the Gamla Barracks.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's 210th 'Golani' Division, located in Naffah military base.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the Artillery Regiment of the IDF's 210th Division in Yarden Barracks.

Additionally, as a completion of our response, we targeted with dozens of explosive drones, the following targets:

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's 91st Division, located in the Ayelet Barracks.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's 7th Armored Brigade in the Katsavia Barracks.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's Northern Command in the Dadu military base.

- 🇮🇱 The IDF's intelligence base for the Northern Region, in Mishar.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's 810th 'Hermon' Brigade in the Maale Golani Barracks.

- 🇮🇱 The permanent main base of the IDF's 146th 'Ilania' Division.

- 🇮🇱 Headquarters of the IDF's 'Golani' Brigade and the 'Egoz' unit in the Shraga Barracks.

@Middle_East_Spectator



Arrow Up

Trump gets big post-debate boost in new polls after Biden's dismal performance

trump biden debate 2024
© Getty ImagesFormer President Trump and President Biden debate in Atlanta on Thursday, June 27. 2024.
Trump widens lead over Biden among voters nationwide in two new polls conducted entirely after last week's presidential debate

A new national poll indicates that former President Trump's lead over President Biden in their 2024 election rematch is widening in the wake of last week's heavily criticized debate performance by Biden.

And the survey, released Wednesday by The New York Times and Siena College, spotlights a surge in concerns that the 81-year-old Biden, the oldest president in the nation's history, is unable to govern the nation effectively.

Biden is facing the roughest stretch of his more than yearlong campaign for a second term in the White House. This, after his halting delivery and stumbling answers at the debate with Trump in Atlanta on Thursday, sparked widespread panic in the Democratic Party and spurred calls from political pundits, editorial writers and some party donors for Biden to step aside as the party's 2024 standard-bearer.

Comment: Can you feel the panic? The Dems can't even get their messaging straight: The Daily Caller reports:
The New York Times claimed Wednesday that a "key ally" of President Joe Biden told them he is weighing whether he can salvage his candidacy or if he should drop out of the 2024 presidential race.

The "key ally," who was granted anonymity by the outlet to discuss the sensitivity of the situation, told the NYT that Biden is aware he must nail his upcoming public appearances in the next few days to stay in the race. The story is based on the single anonymous source, and comes after the NYT editorial board published an editorial over the weekend calling for Biden to drop out of the race.

"President Biden has told a key ally that he knows he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he cannot convince the public in the coming days that he is up for the job after a disastrous debate performance last week," the NYT printed.

The White House denied the premise of the story in a tweet.


Those appearances, the "key ally" allegedly told the NYT, include Biden's campaign stops in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and a sit down interview with ABC News.

"He knows if he has two more events like that, we're in a different place," the "key ally" is quoted as telling the NYT, referring to the president's debate performance.

Less than thirty minutes into his Thursday debate performance, Democrats in the media began calling for the president to drop out of the 2024 presidential election. Tuesday, Texas Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first elected Democrat in Congress to call on Biden to step aside. With four months left until the election, Democrats have made clear they are uneasy with Biden's fitness for office while his campaign maintains that the president is staying in the race.

The NYT further quoted a top adviser to the president, who was also granted anonymity to discuss the situation. The adviser did not indicate whether the key ally's comments were true but said that Biden is "well aware of the political challenge he faces," the NYT reported.

Immediately following Biden's debate performance, there were reports that the president and his family were meeting at Camp David to discuss his future. After the weekend, the New York Times reported that "the entire family is united" on the president staying in the race with his son, Hunter Biden, pushing the hardest.


Self-preservation here. As long as Pops stays out of prison, so does Hunter, and the rest of the sorry lot that is the Biden clan.


Tuesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre fielded questions on the president's fitness for office and on his candidacy's fate during her first briefing since the debate.

"Does President Biden at 81-years-old have Alzheimer's, any form of dementia or degenerative illness that would call these sorts of lapses?" a reporter asked.

"I have an answer for you. Are you ready for it? It's a no. And I hope you're asking the other guy the same exact question," Jean-Pierre snapped back.



Wolf

Jack Smith is willing to try Trump right up to Inauguration Day

trump jack smith
Presidential Donald Trump and Attorney General Jack Smith
The Washington Post is reporting that Special Counsel Jack Smith may try to convict former president Donald Trump all the way through the election and up to 11:59 am on January 20th. After the oath, the Justice Department has long maintained that it will not prosecute a sitting president.

There is also a long-standing policy of the Justice Department to abstain from criminal proceedings before an election to avoid the appearance of trying to influence the outcome. Smith has signaled that he will discard that policy and that he is prepared to try Trump not only up to the election but through the election.

He is now reportedly willing to try Trump up to January 20th.

Smith has made trying Trump before the election the overriding priority in his two cases against the former president. He failed repeatedly to force a shorter schedule on appeal before the Supreme Court. His arguments were revealing. He suggested that the public should have a possible conviction before they cast their votes. It flipped the DOJ policy on its head in openly seeking to influence the election.

Comment: Turley was recently featured on Fox News:




Attention

The lithium cabal defeated in Bolivia, but winning in Serbia

Bolivia and Lithium
© Social Media
A famous person (was it Karl Marx?) once remarked that when history repeats itself, the first time it is a tragedy, the second time a farce. Many of Marx's important predictions may not have come to fruition exactly as he wanted, but on this one he was spot on.

The recent commotion in the South American country of Bolivia may be regarded as an illustration. The potential tragedy part of the drama was the 2019 coup, executed professionally according to the regime change rulebook in order to seize Bolivia's valuable lithium deposits and incidentally despoil it's long-suffering and impoverished citizens of all their mineral wealth. In that coup, President Evo Morales, the indisputable champion of the bulk of Bolivia's majority indigenous population, was ruthlessly deposed. The farce is the amateurishly attempted replay of that episode on 26 June, which in spite of best laid plans unexpectedly went awry. The farce took all of three hours to collapse.

On both occasions, in 2019 and on 26 June 2024, the principal points of contention were Bolivia's vast lithium deposits, estimated at 21 million tonnes, and for whose benefit they would be exploited. A related but equally fundamental issue was (and still very much is) Bolivia's orientation in the geopolitical arena, whether it would side with the BRICS block or the collective West. In everything but the operation's outcome in the farcical stage, the symmetry between the two coups was evident.

In 2019 the intended rapine of Bolivia's natural resources, with lithium deposits at the top of the plunder list, initially was successful but ultimately it failed. To be sure, the regime change manual was followed faithfully. After shameless electoral interference with abundant cash and a flood of corrupt media disinformation, Evo Morales' commanding lead in the 2019 elections was whittled down to a manageable level so that his electoral victory could be plausibly portrayed as stolen. In standard fashion, rented mobs demanded his withdrawal and commissions were set up by vassal entities such as the Organisation of American States to declare that the election process was fraudulent. At the appropriate moment, army officers who almost to a man were graduates of the notorious subversion academy, the School of the Americas (since innocuously renamed Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation to cover up its criminal tracks) were activated to administer the coup de grace to Morales' presidency, or so it was expected. The legally re-elected, however narrowly, President Morales was compelled to flee for his life into exile. A dumb and as it turned out also venal, but extremely cooperative, Aryan blonde without a drop of Inca blood, Jeanine Áñez, was invested with the presidential sash and illegally installed to replace him.

The multinational lithium cartel could now rub their hands and gloat over the succulent Bolivian pickings that had fallen into their lap, a booty Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid could only have dreamt of.

Chess

Russia-North Korea: The new alliance

Flags
© esfera/ShutterstockRussian and Korean flags
Russian President Vladimir Putin's state visit to North Korea has shaken the foundation of regional and global security relationships and understandings that have underpinned geopolitics for decades. In one fell swoop, Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jung-un upended decades of US-backed policy designed to isolate, undermine and ultimately collapse the government of North Korea and better position the US to dominate the Pacific flank of both Russia and China. This has been replaced with a new strategic alliance between Russia and North Korea that will redefine the region's geopolitical balance of power.

For decades, Russia went along with the precepts of international law when it came to North Korea and the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, voting in favor of UN sanctions designed to compel Pyongyang to give up its ambitions regarding nuclear weapons. However, in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Russian government's attitude toward Western-led sanctions shifted from viewing them as a legitimate tool of imposing the will of the UN, to seeing them as a tool of US foreign and security policy.

The initial Russian posture toward North Korea was one of benign neglect of the sanction regime, allowing commercial activity that otherwise would be proscribed by sanctions. Russia, together with China, then began blocking efforts by the US and its allies to impose additional sanctions on North Korea in response to Pyongyang's aggressive testing of ballistic missiles. But the first serious indication that Russia was moving toward a complete break with the West on North Korea came in September 2023 with the visit of Kim Jung-un to Vladivostok and the Russian Far Eastern region.

Comment: Russia and North Korea: Right move, right dynamics, right moment. Shows what can be done in an infinitesimal amount of time to change the world.


Clipboard

Zelensky issues demand to Trump

Zelensky
© Pier Marco Tacca/Getty ImagesUkraine's Vladimir Zelensky
He wants the former US president to explain his plan to resolve the conflict between Moscow and Kiev.

Former US President Donald Trump should set out his plan to resolve the Ukraine conflict, which he claims would take just 24 hours if he's returned to the White House in November, Vladimir Zelensky has said.

Following the launch of Russia's military campaign against Kiev in 2022, Trump has repeatedly said the conflict would not have escalated if he were still president, and has vowed to resolve the crisis in a single day if he is elected once again.

During last week's debate with President Joe Biden, Trump reiterated this promise, stating that he could quickly resolve the conflict - even before he officially assumes office. However, he has yet to specify how he would end the fighting.

In an interview with Bloomberg published on Wednesday, Zelensky demanded that Trump reveal the details of his plan so that Kiev can know what to prepare for in November:
"I would like to know what it would mean to finish a war fast. If Trump knows how to end this war, he should tell us today, because if there are risks to Ukraine's independence, and there are risks that we will lose our statehood, we want to be prepared for this."

Comment: Is Zelensky in any position to make demands? From Trump, of all people? It remains Z's responsibility to end the war.


Dollars

Ukraine to be warned it's 'too corrupt' for NATO - Telegraph

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speak to the media on July 12, 2023 in Vilnius, Lithuania
© Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesUkrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speak to the media on July 12, 2023 in Vilnius, Lithuania
Many of the bloc's members want "additional steps" from Kiev as they consider the issue a "priority," a source has told the paper

NATO wants Ukraine to make more effort to crack down on endemic corruption as a condition for any progress towards joining the bloc, the Daily Telegraph reported on Tuesday, citing sources.

According to the British paper, concerns that Ukraine is "too corrupt" to become a full-fledged NATO member will be highlighted in the communique at the bloc's Washington summit on July 9-11.

Comment:
1) It is inscribed in the Ukrainian Constitution, that NATO and EU membership is a priority for the government and its president. In spite of intentions and promises, the outlook is not bright in the short term. The constitution of Ukraine would have to be changed to make room for peace without NATO and EU membership. See this blog post discussion Would Ukraine Breach its own Constitution if it Dropped its NATO Bid?

2) From the article:
According to Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index, Ukraine is in the 'red' zone, ranking 104th out of 180 countries.
This rating system is not worth much, but here are more details about it.
The Wiki for Corruptions Perceptions Index has that between 2021 and 2022 Ukraine improved six places in the ranking, and 12 places between 2022 and 2023. The NGO, Transparency International, aims to rate countries "by their perceived levels of public sector[1] corruption, as determined by expert assessments and opinion surveys." Place 104 must be close to sufficient for NATO, if Albania, NATO member since 2009, at place number 98 is anything to go by.

The Transparency International website has a page, that shows many sponsors to be from Western countries, with many also being sponsors of the NATO proxy war in Ukraine.

The Wiki include the controversies behind the CPU ratings:
According to the newspaper Le Monde: "In its main surveys, Transparency International does not measure the weight of corruption in economic terms for each country. It develops a Corruption Perception Index (CPI) based on surveys conducted by private structures or other NGOs: the Economist Intelligence Unit, backed by the British liberal weekly newspaper The Economist, the American neoconservative organization Freedom House, the World Economic Forum, or large corporations. (...) The IPC ignores corruption cases that concern the business world. So, the collapse of Lehman Brothers (2008) or the manipulation of the money market reference rate (Libor) by major British banks revealed in 2011 did not affect the ratings of the United States or United Kingdom."
The index may serve as a help for companies who wish to invest in a country as to what they might have to allocate to get what they want. On the state level it can be used as reference point for policies against some countries, and more generally as a front for information gathering and soft power influencing.