Figure 1. Defence spending: top 15 in 2019 US$bn
IISS data shows that in 2019 the United States, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India retained their positions as the world's top defence spenders. Indeed, the only movement in the top 15 saw Italy and Australia swap places, with Italy taking the 12th position and Australia the 13th (Figure 1).
The lack of change in the top 15 reflects an interesting underlying trend, in that the US has if anything just restated its spending dominance. In 2019, global defence spending rose by 4.0% in real terms over 2018 figures, but spending in the US grew by 6.6%. China's spending also rose by 6.6% over 2018 data, but the trajectory of the two states' defence spending is diverging. The budget increase in the US was the largest in ten years, and spending has increased year-on-year since US President Donald Trump took office. While spending is still rising in China, the pace of growth is decelerating, in line with Beijing's relative economic slowdown. This divergence in trajectories means that the spending gap between the two countries, which had narrowed since 2010, has since 2018 increased once more (Figure 2). It remains to be seen, however, if this trend will continue given Washington's plans for a more limited defence-spending increase in FY2021.
Comment: Meanwhile the US' output is increasingly riddled with flaws, and its position on the world stage becomes ever weaker: