Boris Johnson is expected to announce a new national lockdown next week after scientists warned COVID-19 was spreading faster than their worst predictions.During the parliamentary rebellion last month the Government promised Parliament would vote on any new national lockdown measures "where possible". Will the PM honour that? If he doesn't, his party management problems, already considerable, will only get worse.
The Prime Minister spent Friday in crisis meetings with ministers and aides after being told deaths were tracking above the "worst case scenario" that suggested 85,000 in the second wave.
Mr Johnson is understood to have been persuaded that a national lockdown is the only way to save Christmas, and will spend the weekend contemplating exactly how severe it should be.
Senior government sources stressed that no final decision had been made and the measure would need to be put to the Cabinet before any announcement to the nation.
Mr Johnson is likely to summon ministers from his Cabinet coronavirus subcommittee over the next 48 hours and could hold a full meeting on Sunday if he decides he needs to act as soon as Monday. The alternative to a national lockdown would be a fourth tier of restrictions on top of the existing three tier system, but Government scientists now believe even Tier 3 is not enough to stop the spread of infections.
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Comment: After the lockdown plans were leaked today, the UK government is holding an emergency meeting. Just yesterday, Foreign Secretary Raab was saying a new lockdown would be "desperately unfair" to less affected areas. But he still prepared for blaming the victim, i.e., if current measures don't work, it's your own fault for not following them, and a lockdown will be necessary. Which is total nonsense, and circular reasoning, but whatever.
Needless to say, there is absolutely no reason for a lockdown, as the following charts make clear:
Belgium is entering lockdown again, too.