According to the official forecast, the odds of geomagnetic activity on Jan. 31st were less than 10%. That was good enough for Kjetil Skogli of Troms, Norway. "We went out to look in spite of the low expectations--and there it was!" An aurora-burst was in progress directly overhead:
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© Kjetil Skogli

"We didn't have to wait at all," says Skogli. "The show started right away and lasted for more than an hour with a lot of moving green curtains and rays."

The unexpected display was caused by a disturbance in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth. The IMF tilted south, opening a hole in Earth's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in and ignited the auroras.

More auroras are in the offing. A solar wind stream is heading for Earth, due to arrive on Feb. 2nd and 3rd. NOAA forecasters peg the chances of geomagnetic activity on those dates at 20% to 35%--much better odds than Skogli had. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

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© Kjetil Skogli

Image
© Kjetil Skogli

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© Kjetil Skogli