hurrican Joaquin 2015
© NOAA / ReutersHurricane Joaquin is seen approaching the Bahamas on September 30
The East Coast is bracing for a weekend of potential flooding as Hurricane Joaquin bears down on the Bahamas. The storm was upgraded from a tropical storm Wednesday morning, and weather forecasters expect it to turn northwards towards the US.

Joaquin's winds "have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts," according to Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft measurements.

Hurricane Joaquin is intensifying slowly, as the wind shear drops. The storm's 55-mile-wide eye remains open on the north side.

The cyclone is currently listed as a Category 1 storm, and hurricane warnings and watches are in effect for much of the Bahamas. The storm is expected to arrive near the central part of the coral-based archipelago Wednesday night and Thursday.
Hurricane force winds ‒ meaning wind speeds of 74 to 95 mph (119-153 km/hr) ‒ extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. Tropical storm force winds ‒ meaning wind speeds between 39 mph and 73 mph (63-118 km/hr) ‒ extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center.

The storm will move southwest through Wednesday night before turning north towards the US. One model, the American GFS, predicted an "alarming northwestward turn," the Weather Channel said, with the storm slamming into Virginia and Maryland over the weekend.

However, another, the European ECMWF model, shows Joaquin running parallel to the East Coast and offshore before turning to the northeast and heading further out to the North Atlantic off New England and Canada's eastern provinces.
hurrican Joaquin 2015
© National Hurricane Center Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
It may turn into a Category 3 hurricane ‒ a "major hurricane" with sustained wind speeds between 111 and 129 mph (178-208 km/hr).
"Joaquin's future depends critically on the position and relative strength of those players - not to mention its own strength," the Weather Channel said. "It's a particularly difficult forecast that hinges on the behavior of several different atmospheric features over North America and the North Atlantic Ocean."