Image
© AFP/Getty ImagesA Battle field in Ukraine.
There are many signs that fighting in Ukraine could resume soon. Ukraine continues to mass troops on borders.

After the elections of the past days, the Ukrainian parliament has assumed a new delicate equilibrium, with the parties in favor of a resumption of the offensive of the East in the clear majority.

Despite the approach of winter, which should be a motivation for dialogue with Moscow, Ukraine authorities do not seem willing to take that path.

In addition, Poroshenko needs a way to stave off economic default, and resuming the war would help him in this regard. There is a real risk of popular unrest due to the economic crisis, anger against the oligarchs, and inadequate heat in homes, and a renewed war would help Poroshenko repress the unrest.

Finally, the influence of the US is still very high in the government, and there are strong forces in Washington that would like to see a resumption of fighting.

Looking at the situation from the point of view of the militia, these words describe well what they think about what is happening. Here is what Zakharchenko said:
"Periods of intense hostilities will follow. We will retake Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Mariupol. Unfortunately, it was impossible to make the peaceful settlement of focus Negotiations. We are the only ones who comply with the rules of silence. No more talks about ceasefire, of course we are not going to sit [at the negotiating table] with Kiev. "
Due to all these factors, it is highly likely that fighting will soon resume.


Comment: See also:

Escalation of war in Ukraine? Victoria Nuland arrives in Kiev

Ukraine SITREP October 8th, 16:00 UTC/Zulu: The calm before the storm?
On one hand, the ceasefire is being constantly and increasingly violated. A major Ukie attack is definitely possible. On the the other hand, the work on the creation of a buffer zone, possibly involving foreign troops, is actively being pursued and the conflict could temporarily be frozen along the current line of contact. Both Banderastan and Novorussia are politically weak and neither is truly under the authority of one single person or group of people. The following months will be catastrophic for the Nazi-occupied Ukraine and quite literally anything is possible there including a 3rd Maidan, a coup, local insurrections, false flag operations, assassinations and, of course, war. In a way, the stupid trench-to-become-wall the Ukies are building along the borders with Novorussia, Russia and Transnistria might end up protecting Banderastan's neighbors from the effects of the explosion to come.
Ukraine mini-SITREP: very ominous developments
Russian sources - including the excellent Colonel Cassad blog - report that the voentorg aid-spigot has been fully re-opened including for some major deliveries. While, of course, I am very happy that the Novorussian resistance is getting much needed equipment (and specialists), this kind of full reopening of the voentorg also indicates to me that the Russian intelligence services have concluded that an attack is very likely, possibly very soon.
What could the next Junta offensive against Novorussia look like?
Finally, there is also a more optimistic possibility: the real reason behind the chorus of warnings about a Ukie attack might be the Russian way of telling them "we know what you are up to and we are ready". In theory that should deter a Ukie attack. Alas, we need to remember that a) there is no real power in Kiev - all the decisions are taking by the USA and b) the goal of the next attack might not be to win, but to draw Russia into an overt intervention. I personally believe that this was the plan all along and I have been saying that for months: the real goal of the AngloZionists is to force a Russian military intervention in Novorussia while the real goal of the Kremlin is to stay out and keep Novorussia alive by means of voentorg on one hand, and chaos in Banderastan on the other. So far the Kremlin has prevailed. We will probably soon find out if that strategy will work again.