Sea water gushed into the island through Muriganga river on July 14, causing extensive damage to crops and destroying homes. Around 10 villages were affected and they continue to be submerged by the untimely rise in water level, which could have been triggered by a change in climate in the region, fear experts.
It is usually the shara-sharir baan (neap tide) that hits Sunderbans twice a year - in April and September. But it rarely triggers a flood. This sudden influx of water was not neap tide, say locals and experts. It was much fiercer and struck at least two months ahead of the neap tide, they say.
"It could be the result of climate change since the water level has been rising in the Sunderbans. Nothing like this has ever happened in 70 years so people were not ready for it. Paddy cultivation and betel plantations - the main sources of livelihood in the island - have been severely affected. The fields are still under a foot and half of water and salinity has reduced soil fertility. No crop will grow in the flooded villages for at least 2-3 years," said Sudipta Bhattacharjee of SAFE, an NGO that has been studying the impact of the high-tide.
Some of the affected villages were severely damaged by Cyclone Aila in 2010.
What worries environmentalists most is the possible trigger. If this wasn't neap tide, then it could happen yet again next month, they fear. "Since this doesn't seem to be the neap tide, we are possibly in for another flooding next month. Last month's flooding might have been the result of rising sea-level, but we are not sure. There could be other environmental factors at work as well. The severity of the flood is indeed worrying and a repeat could be disastrous," said environmentalist Amalesh Misra who runs the NGO Paribesh Unnayan Parishad (PUP).
SAFE and PUP are assessing the impact of the flood and trying to unearth the reason for it. They have already detected a major deterioration in soil condition and loss of biodiversity. "It will now be difficult to grow high-yield varieties of paddy or betel due to the high saline and acid levels in the soil. It may improve slightly if it rains heavily and dilutes the salt. But microorganisms have died out due to the influx of sea water and this has adversely affected soil fertility," said Bhattacharjee. The water level in the adjacent Buriganga river is now being closely monitored.
Locals are bracing for September when the neap tide is expected. "If it doesn't, then we may conclude that it struck early. But then, we must find it out why it happened," said Misra. Environmentalist and lead author of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change Joyashree Roy felt this could have been one of the erratic and extreme climatic events that would now be more frequent. "It is the trend worldwide and Sunderbans is particularly vulnerable in terms of climate change. It has been affected by both a rise in water-level and erratic rainfall. Rainfall pattern, in fact, has changed across the country.
A sudden flood like the one in Sagar Island is a cause for concern. It is a sure sign of climate change. Events like this can't be predicted and we are likely to see them more frequently now," said Roy.
Comment: Climate change may be the answer, yet extremes in weather may not be the best explanation. Strange events are happening in the worlds oceans, such as Major seismic event imminent ? Strange glowing lights seen by pilots over part of the Pacific Ring of Fire and massive aquatic life die off. Geological events such as underwater volcanos or other explanations such as methane explosions and a changing planet may point to a better assessment of what might have caused the unusual and unseasonal tide.