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The Japan Meteorological Agency (Regional WMO) has designated the Tropical Depression Near Guam as the newest tropical storm in the western pacific for the 2014 Typhoon Season. This brings it up to nine named storms thus far this year.

Rammasun has already brought cause for alarm in Guam on Thursday and Friday where it passed as a Tropical depression. The Guam NWS did issue Tropical storm warnings as it passed by dropping all the warnings by Saturday morning.

Where to Next?
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When and Where?

According to the JMA and the US military the Rammasun will continue to intensify in to a Strong Typhoon by mid-week as it tracks west along the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge to the north. Given the strength of the ridge now stretched across Okinawa and the southern Japanese islands a re-curving storm seems unlikely at this time. Instead those in Luzon a should be preparing for a possible landfall by Wednesday.

At the time of landfall both agencies winds to be gusting around 200kph. This would be enough to cause damage to extreme coastal areas and even a coastal storm surge. Good news is north eastern Luzon is built for typhoons and has a relatively low population. (probably due to the absurd number of typhoons this region gets each year.)

It does look like there is a risk of the track shifting south which could bring the storm closer to Manila.

At least according to the major agencies Metro Manila at this time should miss the worst of the storm but monsoonal rains along with westerly winds wrapping in around the storm could cause flooding problems for the NCR.
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Given the exact track and intensity of the storm those problems could increase or decrease. Best is to prepare for the risk of flooding in Manila, but more so for much of Northern Luzon as the first direct typhoon of 2014 impacts the island.

Even if the storm does not make typhoon status those in the Philippines can prepare for flash flooding and possible landslides as a huge surge of tropical moisture pushes on shore through mid-week.

As we know from past storms Tropical Storms can cause significant damage in the Philippines.

After the Philippines?

Beyond that Southern China may get impacted by a strong storm by late week, even our friends in Hong Kong might see a Typhoon Intensity type of storm if a few of the Global Numerical Models continue to hold their aggressive forecast outlook.