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Over the past 30 days, rainfall in western Ukraine has been at or above normal, in stark contrast to areas to the east, where precipitation has been less than 40% of average.
The wetness in the west has proved beneficial for recently planted spring wheat and soon-to-be harvested winter wheat. Spring wheat is primarily grown in the northern and western portion of the country, so moisture has been sufficient during the bulk of the planting season. However, winter wheat, which accounts for nearly 95% of Ukraine's total wheat production, is grown mainly in the southern half of the country as shown below.
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Unfortunately, that region has been very dry over the past month. In the month of May there has been reports of yellow and drying of footstalks as well as disease and damage from pests. In the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Wednesday, the USDA projects Ukraine winter wheat product to decline by one million due to the persistent dryness in the major growing areas. Over the next 7 days, rain is expected in western Ukraine, with the heaviest precipitation missing the dry winter wheat locations.
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