Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported.
NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.
Comment: In a couple of days the probability of a collision with Apophis was multiplied by 100.
Keeping in mind that Apophis is one of the numerous identified asteroids and that the number of unidentified asteroids is even higher.
The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on April 13 2029.
Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth -- and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.
Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.
The shock waves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.
The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: "Apophis - The Killer Asteroid."
Comment: If Nasa makes such obvious mistake as far as an asteroid's impact is concerned we can wonder if this mistake is deliberate or not.
Of course a major difference between NASA and a 13 years old schoolboy is that the latter is not funded/controlled by the government.
[Link]
Widespread media reports claim that a German schoolboy has recalculated
the likelihood of a deadly planet-smasher asteroid hitting the Earth,
and found the catastrophe is enormously more likely than NASA thought.
The boy's sums were said to have been checked by both NASA and the
European Space Agency (ESA), and found to be correct.
There's only one problem with the story: the kid's sums are in fact
wrong, NASA's are right, and the ESA swear blind they never said any
different. An ESA spokesman in Germany told the /Reg/ this morning: "A
small boy did do these calculations, but he made a mistake... NASA's
figures are correct."
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It must sting to be upstaged by a 13 year-old.