Comment: There certainly seems to have been an uptick in the number of incidents that can likely be attributed to the machinations of the West, and this is happening alongside a number of more overt actions:

• Chad is latest African state moving to kick out US military
• 'You're next': Man arrested for threatening Serbia's President Vucic on social media
• Turkey thwarts ANOTHER coup attempt, Interior Minister vows justice after 'plot against president Erdogan'
• France deploys military to quell independence protests and serious rioting in Pacific territory of New Caledonia
• Haiti announces state of emergency following mass prison break, gang boss vows to oust Prime Minister

Comment: Whilst people behaving untoward on social media is nothing new, given the new suspicions behind Fico's assassination attempt, the suspicious death of Iran's President Raisi, and considering Serbia's relatively Russia friendly policies, in addition to the various other seemingly related incidents that have occurred of late, the threat is worth noting:

• Turkey thwarts ANOTHER coup attempt, Interior Minister vows justice after 'plot against president Erdogan'
• Georgian parliamentary committee approves 'foreign influence' bill

See also:

Comment:
See also:
1) Best of the Web: Helicopter carrying Iranian president crashes - reports

2) The Israeli press has fresh comment on the significance for the political situation in Iran and the Middle East
Haaretz attributing The Associated Press writes:

Iran's Foreign Minister, a Hard-line Diplomat and Hamas, Hezbollah Point Man, Dies in Helicopter Crash

During the Israel-Hamas war, he met with foreign officials and the leader of Hamas and Hezbollah. He also threatened retaliation against Israel and praised an April attack on Israel

The Associated Press May 20, 2024 10:07 am IDT

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, a hardliner close to the country's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard who confronted the West while also overseeing indirect talks with the U.S. over the country's nuclear program, died in the helicopter crash that also killed the country's president, state media

The Times of Israel:

Iran's Raisi confirmed dead in helicopter crash near Azerbaijan border
Officials declare deaths of president and foreign minister after lengthy overnight search in difficult conditions; Hamas conveys 'deepest condolences' to the Iranian government
By AGENCIES and TOI STAFF Today, 9:08 am
[...]
The charred wreckage of the helicopter, which crashed on Sunday carrying Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, along with seven others, was found early on Monday after a 15-hour search in foggy weather conditions.

There is also an opinion piece by LAZAR BERMAN, The Times of Israel's diplomatic reporter:

19 May 2024, 9:46 pm Updated: Today, 7:36 am
Raisi's death doesn't change Iranian policy, but will spark fight for power
After fatal crash of Iran's president and potential Khamenei successor, deep stable of figures aiming to fill the vacuum his loss creates may test supreme leader

[...]

Raisi "works for the Supreme Leader," noted Ori Goldberg of Reichman University. "Certainly this guy, because he was elected in the least democratic elections the Islamic Republic ever had."

At the same time, however, the sudden loss of Iran's president creates a power vacuum that senior figures will start maneuvering to take advantage of.

According to Article 131 of Iran's constitution, in the case of the president's death, the first deputy temporarily assumes the presidency. Mohammad Mokhber, a Khamenei loyalist, currently fills that role.

Elections must be held within fifty days.

There is no shortage of powerful officials who have been waiting for an opportunity like this to move further up the regime's power structure, and the sudden shock of the death of Iran's president now presents itself as a test for Khamenei.

"He has to show that he can carry, not the country, but the leadership, through this transition," said Goldberg.

But more importantly, Raisi had been seen as the leading candidate to replace Khamenei. He was immensely experienced — a cleric, ex-chief justice and former head of a massive foundation, in addition to being president.

"To have him off the field or incapacitated, dead, what have you, is a real shock for the politics of the system," said Brodsky.

While overshadowed by Raisi, the loss of Amir-Abdollahian is also significant, as he has been an extremely effective foreign minister, overseeing a successful reconciliation with Saudi Arabia and navigating a series of difficult crises, including with powerful neighbor Pakistan.

Though Iran's broad foreign policy won't change, having to deal with unexpected political upheaval is expected to take attention away from the multi-front fight against Israel.

The country can now be "a little more self-engaged, wrapped up in internal politics, as it sorts out the election for the next president," noted Michael Makovsky, CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

3) The Iranian Press TV was initially slow to comment on the missing helicopter, but this morning there is an the indication of a twist to the crash, whether that is to cover up internal incompetence, to unite the nation, or allude to what led to the crash:

'Saddened and shocked': World leaders extend condolences after President Raeisi's martyrdom
Monday, 20 May 2024 6:51 AM [ Last Update: Monday, 20 May 2024 7:12 AM ]
World leaders have extended condolences to the Iranian government and nation over the martyrdom of President Ebrahim Raeisi in a helicopter crash in the country's northwest.

The above article has statements from India, Pakistan, Venezuela and Iraq.

4) It is not yet clear what caused the crash, apart from it being damned stupid to fly in poor conditions, in difficult terrain after going to a neighbouring country to inaugurate a mere dam. However, given that the pilot was probably experienced, that the other two helicopters did manage and that there was a lot at stake for some foreign governments, the investigation into the reason for the crash could prove interesting.

Comment: We'll take the Mossad-CIA-MI6 trifecta for $600, Alex.

Comment: Other videos:




The following selfie-video from Avéro in Portugal was captured by Mila Vladimirovna, @milarefacho

Some of the above and other videos can be found here: International Meteor Society
Huge fireball over Spain and Portugal on May 18!


The fireball has entered the CNEOS list:
Peak Brightness Date/Time (UT) 2024-05-18 22:46:50
Latitude(deg. 41.0N
Longitude(deg.) 8.8W
Altitude(km) 74.3
Velocity(km/s 40.4
Velocity Components(km/s) vx -26.5, vy -24.1, vz 18.7
Total Radiated Energy(J) 3.7e10
Calculated Total Impact Energy(kt) 0.13
This year six others have entered the list, curiously, of very similar size. There now is one at 0.15, four at 0.13, one at 0.11 and on at 0.098. The variation last year was between 0.076 and 7.2. kt! The Chelyabinsk meteor has been estimated to between 400 and 500 kt of TNT.

The American Meteor Society has in the 2024 list recorded it as Event 2481-2024:
If the reports most distant from the trajectory are reliable, it was viewable at a distance of up to 1200 km. To verify if this is even possible, one can use a Distance to Horizon Calculator, like this German online calculator that also is configurable to show feet and miles.

Since the altitude of the visible meteor has been given the range of 122 km, initially, and 54 km at the end, we can insert these figures and find out how far out that is visible. For an observer at sea level, the calculator gives values between 1252 km and 831 km.

To be able to view the meteor from Paris would be a "tall order" given that the atmosphere is not clear, but if the viewing happened from one of the skyrises. several of which are around 200 meters this could add about 50 km to the first estimate of 1252 km. Alternatively, a different calculator shows that from an altitude of 122 km, the horizon to sea level is 1328 km away, and if you are viewing from an altitude of 200 meter, it would be 1382 km.

Meteors are interesting objects, see more in Cometary Encounters: Flash-Frozen Mammoths, Mars-Earth Discharge, Comet Venus and the 3,600-Year Cometary Cycle, and Earth Changes and the Human-Cosmic Connection (The Secret History of the World Book 3) by Pierre Lescaudron. The second is available in German, while both are translated into French, and Russian.

Comment: Update May 3

The BBC reports:

A hydroelectric dam has collapsed in southern Brazil after days of heavy rains that triggered massive flooding, killing more than 30 people.

Officials say another 60 people are missing in Rio Grande do Sul state.

About 15,000 residents have fled their homes since Saturday. At least 500,000 people are without power and clean water across the state.

The burst dam triggered a two-metre (6.6ft) wave, causing panic and further damage in the already flooded areas.

The dam is located between the municipality of Cotiporã and the city of Bento Gonçalves.

Update May 4

CGTN reports:

The death toll keeps climbing from continuous rains in Brazil's southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. At least 58 people have been killed, while another 67 remain missing according to the state's civil defense agency. The rains have triggered the worst floods in more than 80 years.

Update May 7

Reuters reports:

Rescuers rushed to evacuate people stranded by devastating floods across the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul on Tuesday, with 90 reported dead and desperate survivors seeking food and basic supplies.

On the outskirts of Eldorado do Sul, 17 kilometers (10.5 miles) from the state capital of Porto Alegre, many people who left their homes were sleeping on the roadside and told Reuters they were going hungry. Entire families were leaving on foot, carrying belongings in backpacks and shopping carts.

"We've been without food for three days and we've only just got this blanket. I'm with people I don't even know, I don't know where my family is," said a young man who gave his name as Ricardo Junior.

The flooding has hampered rescue efforts, with dozens of people still waiting to be evacuated by boat or helicopter from stricken homes. Small boats crisscrossed the flooded town searching for survivors.

The state's Civil Defense agency said the death toll has risen to 90 with another four deaths being investigated, while 131 people are still unaccounted for and 155,000 are homeless.

Heavy rains that began last week have caused rivers to flood, inundating whole towns and destroying roads and bridges.

In Porto Alegre, a city of 1.3 million inhabitants on the Guaiba river, downtown streets were under water.

Porto Alegre residents faced empty supermarket shelves and closed gas stations, with shops rationing sales of mineral water. The city distributed water in trucks to hospitals and shelters.

The floods have also impacted water and electricity services, with more than 1.4 million affected overall, according to Brazil's Civil Defense.

Update May 12

The Anadolu Agency reports:

The death toll from floods caused by heavy rains in Brazil has risen to 137, authorities reported Saturday.

Following heavy rains that have been affecting the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul since last week, the loss of life and property is steadily increasing.

According to a statement from the Civil Defense of the state, the number is 125 people still missing.

The number of injured has risen to 756, and more than 2 million people have been affected.

Additionally, the statement noted that more tha 600,000 people have been displaced.

The statement highlighted that hospitals have reached full capacity, necessitating additional support for patient care.

Update May 17

Xinhua News Agency reports:

As many as 151 people have died to date from south Brazil's worst climate disaster on record and another 104 people remain missing, the Civil Defense agency said Thursday.

Since torrential rains began to lash the country's southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, on April 29, floods and mudslides have left some 600,000 people homeless.

Horse in an unstable condition.

In the last 24 hours, the number of fatal victims rose from 149 to 151 as 458 of the state's 497 cities were suffering from severe flooding, including the capital Porto Alegre, where the Guaiba River burst its banks and inundated most of the metropolis.

According to the Civil Defense agency's latest report, over 2.28 million residents have been directly impacted by the disaster in the state, which borders Argentina and Uruguay, and is a center of Brazilian agribusiness, as well as the top rice producer in Latin America.

Comment: Now get this: in December 1859 the Atlantic magazine published a detailed report about the 1859 Carrington Event, and noted, among many other things in its superb report (oh for the days when The Atlantic published good research), that:

The aurora borealis of August 28th was surpassingly brilliant not only in the northern portion of this continent, but also as far south as the equator, — as well as in Cuba, Jamaica, California, and the greater portion of Europe. [...]

In Jamaica the aurora borealis was witnessed for the first time, perhaps, since the discovery of this island by Columbus. So rare is the phenomenon in those latitudes, that it was taken for the glare of a fire, and was associated with the recent riots.

Guess what erupted in New Caledonia three days after auroras were sighted there... serious rioting akin to a 'civil war':

France deploys military to quell independence protests and serious rioting in Pacific territory of New Caledonia

Spaceweather.com also reports that another massive 'Carrington-class' sunspot is poised to hurl a geomagnetic storm Mars' way...

MONSTER SUNSPOT TARGETS MARS: First Earth, now Mars. Carrington-class sunspot AR3664 is now directly facing the Red Planet. NASA's Mars rover Perseverance saw it yesterday through the dusty air of Jezero Crater:

© NASA's Mars rover Perseverance

On May 14th, AR3664 produced an X8.6-class solar flare, the strongest flare of the solar cycle, and hurled a corresponding CME directly toward Mars. NASA models suggest it should hit Mars on May 17th, potentially sparking global auroras.

"We're bracing for impact!" says says Nick Schneider of the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP). Schneider works with an ultraviolet camera on NASA's MAVEN spacecraft, which may be able to observe the display. Stay tuned!